As of January 31, 2026, a total of 2,976 A-share companies have disclosed their 2025 annual report performance forecasts, representing a total disclosure rate of 54.0%. Among these, 37% of companies signaled positive performance, an increase from the 33% seen in the 2024 annual report previews. This round of forecasts reveals a structural pattern characterized by "technology-driven growth, external demand support, and financial sector stability," with large-cap leading companies demonstrating significant profit recovery, while small and mid-cap enterprises continue to face substantial performance pressure. The key observations are outlined below:
In 2025, leading companies in certain sectors were the first to achieve a recovery in business conditions. First, the proportion of positive annual report forecasts expanded, with technology, finance, and cyclical industries being the standout performers. By January 31, 2026, the disclosure period for annual performance forecasts across all A-shares (including those listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange) had concluded. Among the primary sectors, technology, finance, and cyclical industries reported relatively higher proportions of positive forecasts. At the industry level, communications, basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, electronics, and power & utilities ranked highest in terms of growth rates.
Second, large-cap leaders showed clear profit improvement, while small and mid-cap companies remained under significant performance pressure. The proportion of positive forecasts across broad market indices exhibited a strong positive correlation with market capitalization style. The SSE 50 index recorded a positive forecast ratio of 75%, the CSI 300 reached 62.4%, and the CSI 500 stood at 54.4%, while the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 indices both fell below 50%. In terms of absolute profit growth, large-cap indices such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300 contributed the most significant increases. From a market capitalization perspective, companies with market caps exceeding 100 billion to 500 billion yuan demonstrated the most pronounced profit improvement (year-over-year growth of 113.9%). Firms with market caps above 500 billion yuan also maintained robust growth (year-over-year increase of 30.2%), whereas companies below the 100 billion yuan threshold generally faced profit pressures.
Third, the current round of performance forecasts displayed a structural pattern defined by "technology-driven growth, external demand support, and financial sector stability." By January 31, 2026, nine constituents of the SSE 50 index had released performance forecasts. Among the six companies reporting growth, four derived over 40% of their revenue from overseas markets, while the other two attributed their growth to capital expenditure driven by semiconductor equipment localization and AI adoption. A total of 89 CSI 300 constituents issued annual report forecasts, with 20 of the 58 growing companies generating more than 30% of their revenue from international operations. Benefiting from global AI infrastructure development and rising semiconductor demand, the technology sector exhibited strong overall resilience. Against the backdrop of a revaluation of China's manufacturing pricing power, industries such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and machinery also experienced notable profit releases. Finally, propelled by domestic capital market prosperity, the non-bank financial sector delivered standout performance in this round of forecasts.
Fourth, utilizing Python to tag performance forecasts reveals that supply-side cost reduction and capital operations are primary drivers of profit growth. Through a dictionary-based rule-matching method, performance forecast texts from 2,976 listed companies were successfully tagged, achieving an effective coverage rate of 84.4%. Text analysis results indicated that "asset impairment" was the leading drag on performance, with downturns in the real estate and photovoltaic sectors exerting broad negative impacts on overall A-share profits. The growth rationale for positively performing companies centered on cost management and capital operations, with high-frequency mentions of "cost reduction," "non-recurring gains," and "mergers and acquisitions," highlighting the critical role of industry consolidation and cost efficiency in driving profit growth.
Analysis of institutional holdings reveals divergent performance decoding strategies. First, fund companies focus on high-growth sectors with clear industry trends, delivering strong profit performance. Fund holdings encompassed 3,717 individual stocks with a total market value of 5.56 trillion yuan. The top three heavily weighted sectors were electronics (20.1%), pharmaceuticals (10.1%), and power equipment & new energy (9.3%)—all high-growth areas. The core holdings (top 20%) demonstrated the most outstanding profit scale and growth, with forecasted net profits reaching 397.6 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 46.4%. Companies in the top three tiers of fund holdings all reported year-over-year profit growth or reduced losses for 2025.
Second, insurance companies emphasize cash flow preferences in their allocations, showcasing strong defensive characteristics. Insurance holdings included 638 individual stocks with a total market value of 1.91 trillion yuan. The banking and non-bank financial sectors together accounted for 75.6% of their portfolio weight. The top 20% of insurance holdings reported substantial 2025 profits (81.47 billion yuan) but exhibited relatively limited growth elasticity (year-over-year increase of 2.9%). The bottom 20% underweight portfolio recorded the largest absolute profit improvement, turning a 2024 loss (-94.89 billion yuan) into a 2025 profit (30.86 billion yuan).
Third, QFII holdings are concentrated in high-growth directions, with light-position portfolios showing remarkable performance reversals. QFII holdings comprised 856 individual stocks with a total market value of 181.5 billion yuan. Their sector allocation followed a structure of "financial stability (banking 39.7%) plus breakout in advantaged industries (electronics, machinery, new energy, chemicals, building materials)." The core QFII holdings (top 20%) continued to deliver steady profits (39.96 billion yuan) with clear net profit improvement (year-over-year growth of 75.2%). The bottom 20% portfolio reported forecasted 2025 net profits as high as 132.56 billion yuan, a dramatic reversal from a loss of 16.35 billion yuan in 2024.
Identifying sectors where business conditions and market sentiment align based on annual report forecasts. First, analyst expectations in this round of annual report forecasts were generally optimistic. Calculating the deviation of median forecasted net profits from market consensus expectations revealed that 537 companies fell short of analyst forecasts (below -5%), while only 160 companies exceeded expectations (above 5%)—a ratio of 3.4 to 1. This significant disparity strongly indicates overall optimistic analyst earnings projections for the period. Sectors such as basic chemicals, electronics, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and machinery led in the number of companies exceeding expectations, while automobiles and power & utilities also ranked high in both count and proportion of outperformers.
Second, gap analysis conclusions largely align with Wind consensus expectation analysis. Comparing the opening prices of all companies releasing annual report forecasts on the day after announcement with the previous day's high/low prices showed that 658 stocks experienced downward gaps at market open, versus only 230 stocks with upward gaps—a ratio of 2.86 to 1. This proportion suggests that profit expectations were generally elevated prior to the forecast releases. From a trading behavior perspective, the automobile, textiles & apparel, and basic chemicals sectors displayed relative short-term market strength. Additionally, electronics, power & utilities, construction, power equipment & new energy, non-ferrous metals, and machinery ranked high in sector order.
Third, industries can currently be categorized into three types based on the alignment of sentiment and performance: First, sectors with sentiment and performance共振, such as basic chemicals, electronics, power & utilities, non-ferrous metals, and automobiles, where fundamentals and market sentiment provide mutual support. Second, sectors with divergent expectations and trading, such as pharmaceuticals, machinery, communications, and computers, which show structural bright spots but overall cautious market sentiment and clear internal disparities. Third, sectors where sentiment leads performance, such as textiles & apparel, construction, and transportation, where positive market signals have emerged ahead of actual performance improvements, suggesting pessimistic expectations may have been提前释放 and marginal improvements are underway.
Risk factors include potential slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery or policy support; unexpectedly sharp declines in domestic consumer demand;超预期 recessions in European and American economies; and escalating Sino-US tensions in technology trade or financial sectors.