On April 30th, the metals market witnessed a significant shift. The Yangtze River spot 1# nickel price plunged by 950 yuan, quoted at 151,000 yuan per ton, with this sharp drop from high levels sparking market concern. A combination of factors including delayed expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a strong rebound in the US dollar, weakening and volatile US stocks, and capital exiting for risk-off purposes ahead of the May Day holiday collectively impacted the market. What caused nickel's abrupt decline? Are there underlying concerns in its supply and demand fundamentals? What key variables should the market focus on before and after the holiday? This analysis directly addresses these hot topics, providing an in-depth look at the factors influencing nickel's short-term price trend and potential investor strategies for holiday positioning.

Today's Nickel Price: Retreating from Highs, Center of Gravity Shifts Lower As of 10:16 on April 30th, the Yangtze River spot 1# nickel was quoted between 150,300 and 151,700 yuan per ton, with an average price of 151,000 yuan per ton, down 950 yuan for the day, a decline of 0.62%. On the futures market, the most-traded Shanghai nickel contract reached a high settlement of 150,060 yuan per ton, falling 0.31%. The market displayed a pattern of "opening lower and moving lower, oscillating downward," struggling to maintain early gains before continuing to retreat, losing the 152,000 yuan per ton level. Trading activity weakened as cautious sentiment grew.

Macroeconomic Influencing Factors Overnight, the US Federal Reserve maintained current interest rates, but internal disagreements reached a multi-decade high. Coupled with rising long-term inflation concerns and climbing US Treasury yields, this directly propelled a strong rebound in the US Dollar Index, putting downward pressure on dollar-denominated commodities like nickel. Divergent performances in US stock markets and a cooling risk appetite prompted capital to accelerate its exit from high-risk assets such as non-ferrous metals, serving as a key external driver for nickel's decline. Domestically, with the May Day holiday approaching, risk-off sentiment spread. Institutions took profits, reduced positions, and exited the market. This was compounded by slower-than-expected recovery in downstream demand and prominent inventory pressures, further exacerbating nickel price volatility. The convergence of these multiple macroeconomic headwinds directly led to the significant downturn in nickel prices.

Current Supply, Demand, and Industry Chain Status The current supply-demand dynamic in the nickel market shows a clear imbalance. On the supply side, production capacity continues to be released, and inventories both domestically and internationally remain high, with this oversupply consistently weighing on prices. On the demand side, the market is experiencing a "weak peak season," with the two major downstream sectors showing sluggish demand, insufficient to absorb existing inventories, thereby intensifying the supply-demand conflict. Overall, the global nickel market remains in a state of oversupply. However, policy tightening in Indonesia and rising smelting costs are gradually forming a base level of support. Caught in this supply-demand tug-of-war, nickel price direction faces a dilemma.

Pre-Holiday Outlook: Focus on Three Key Variables As the May Day holiday nears, market focus centers on three key variables that will directly determine nickel's post-holiday direction: subsequent policy statements from the US Federal Reserve, the implementation of Indonesia's relevant export policies, and potential turning points in inventory data. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with cost factors providing support below and macroeconomic factors applying pressure above. After the holiday, close attention should be paid to the interplay of various positive and negative factors. Should significant changes occur in policy or supply-demand fundamentals, nickel prices may establish a clearer directional trend. Investors are advised to maintain a cautious approach before the holiday, focusing on core monitoring indicators.