达美航空财报超预期，点燃投资者对航空公司股反弹的希望，但今年能否复制2024年的辉煌？关键因素可能缺失。联合大陆航空即将发布季度业绩，美国航空紧随其后，成为市场焦点。然而，UBS分析师警告：行业需求不明、估值更高、反弹可能性低。2024年，美国航空ETF飙升45%，得益于供应减少、旅游需求激增和燃料成本下降；如今，门槛升高，需求加速才能推动股价上涨，更可能出现在2026年初。投资者应保持耐心、选择布局，达美航空和联合大陆航空被视为长期优选。
达美航空股价今年下跌7%，联合大陆航空跌10%，美国航空暴跌30%；美国航空ETF年内下滑1.5%，远逊于标普500指数6.6%的涨幅。FactSet调查显示，联合大陆航空预计第二季度调整后每股收益3.81美元，营收154亿美元，低于去年同期的4.14美元和150亿美元；美国航空料每股收益0.78美元，营收143亿美元，对比去年同期的1.09美元和143.3亿美元。分析师强调：需求不确定性加剧，下半年反弹“虽可能，但概率不高”。
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