Spot Gold:
On September 29, market news: During the European trading session on Monday, gold prices continued their upward momentum, breaking through the psychological barrier of $3,800 per ounce for the first time. As of 16:00, the price reached a high of $3,819.95 per ounce, representing an increase of approximately 1.53%. This upward movement was driven by the latest U.S. inflation data meeting market expectations, reinforcing investor confidence that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates within the year, while the dollar index continued to weaken. As a low interest rate environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold assets, this provides strong support for gold prices. Combined with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, market demand for safe-haven assets like gold has further intensified. Traders will closely monitor Federal Reserve officials' speeches later on Monday.
Technical Analysis: Gold prices traded in positive territory during the day. From a long-term perspective, the bullish tone for precious metals remains intact, with prices staying above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the midline near 75-90, indicating the RSI is in overbought territory. This suggests that the possibility of further consolidation or temporary selling cannot be ruled out before preparing for any near-term gold rally. Key support for gold lies in the $3,800-3,810 area, representing the psychological level and upper limit of the Bollinger Bands. Sustained trading above this level could push gold toward $3,850, while a break below would return it to the $3,760-3,800 range. Tonight, focus on resistance at the $3,830-3,850 line above and support at the $3,800-3,780 line below. Personal forecast: Primarily long on dips, secondary short on highs. GOLD watershed: $3,800 per ounce.
Evening Gold Trading Recommendations: Opening positions/ranges: Aggressive short at 3828/33, conservative short at 3843/48, with 10-dollar stops each, target 3800 breakout and hold. Aggressive long at 3801-06, conservative long at 3782/87, with 10-dollar stops each, target 3820 breakout and hold. Note: The above is for reference only, follow real-time views.
WTI Crude Oil:
Market News: During the European session on Monday (September 29), U.S. crude oil prices are currently trading near $64.8 per barrel. The resumption of oil exports from Iraq's Kurdish region and OPEC+'s potential approval of production increases of at least 137,000 barrels per day at next Sunday's meeting have increased market expectations of global supply surplus, putting pressure on international crude oil prices. However, recent continuous attacks by Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure have led to significant cuts in fuel exports, providing support. In the short term, oil prices may maintain a consolidation pattern.
Technical Analysis: Looking at the daily chart, aided by declining U.S. inventories and supply concerns due to geopolitical conflicts, international oil prices rebounded strongly last week, posting the largest weekly gain since mid-June. Technically, the candlestick pattern shows a minor adjustment after being blocked at high levels, indicating intensified disagreement between bulls and bears. Structurally, the moving average system is gradually flattening, and short-term trends may enter a consolidation phase. Tonight, focus on resistance at 65.5-66.0 above and support at 64.0 below. Personal forecast: Primarily short on highs, secondary long on dips. WTI watershed: $65.0 per barrel.
Evening Oil Trading Recommendations: Long Strategy: Recommend entering in batches in the 64.2/63.7 range, stop loss: $63.2, target: $65.8 Short Strategy: Recommend entering in batches in the 65.3/65.8 range, stop loss: $66.3, target: $63.7