As the inaugural year of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, 2026 positions China's economy at a new developmental starting point. The tone of macroeconomic policies, the trajectory of the A-share market, and the performance of gold assets have become central focuses for market participants. Following the Spring Festival holiday, policy implementation and industry realignment are set to unfold comprehensively. Amid multiple variables in the domestic and international economic environment, insights were gathered from chief economists, chief analysts, and investment officers at various securities firms, fund management companies, and asset management institutions. These discussions provided in-depth analysis on key issues including the full-year GDP growth forecast, the trend of the Renminbi exchange rate, the A-share market's performance post-4000 points, and the underlying logic of gold price movements.
Some perspectives suggest that 2026 may feature moderately strengthened aggregate policies, with structural efforts simultaneously targeting "increases and decreases" and "supply and demand" to achieve reasonable growth. Concurrently, the A-share market is expected to solidly hold above the 4000-point level within the year, with this threshold transitioning from a historical resistance point to a significant support level. Regarding international gold prices, the industry maintains a positive outlook on the continuing upward trend.
The macroeconomy is demonstrating greater resilience. Macroeconomic policies serve as a crucial guarantee for China's stable economic operation and progression towards high-quality development. Since the beginning of the year, the State Council Information Office held a press conference detailing the effectiveness of monetary and financial policies in supporting high-quality real economic development. People's Bank of China spokesperson and Vice Governor Zou Lan mentioned that the Central Economic Work Conference has clearly stated the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. The PBOC will follow the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, intensify counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, and effectively support a successful start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
Considering the current macroeconomic backdrop, Wang Yi, Chief Economist at Great Wall Securities, believes the core drivers supporting economic growth this year will form a multi-dimensional pattern characterized by "policy-driven investment as the lead, domestic demand recovery as the foundation, and resilient exports as a supplement." The 15th Five-Year Plan aims to optimize the supply structure of traditional industries through "anti-involution" policies on one hand, and on the other, focuses on new quality productive forces, guiding capital aggregation towards strategic emerging industries. Simultaneously, domestic demand strategies, through income distribution reforms and consumption environment optimization, are gradually unleashing the potential of the ultra-large market, forming a virtuous cycle where "new demand guides new supply." Although exports remain resilient, their contribution may diminish compared to previous phases due to constraints from external risks such as volatile US tariff policies. This driver structure reflects the strategic intent of national industrial policy forward planning and aligns with the inherent requirements of the current economic development stage, promising an organic unity of short-term growth stabilization and medium-to-long-term transformation and upgrading.
Zhou Junzhi, Chief Macro Analyst at China Securities Co., holds a similar view. She believes China's economic growth in 2026 will no longer rely on a single engine but will present a clear pattern of "resilient exports, policy-driven investment stabilizing and bottoming out, and domestic demand recovery taking the baton." Firstly, domestic demand recovery is transitioning from being the "top priority task" to becoming the "main engine" of economic growth. Secondly, policy-driven investment is stabilizing and finding a bottom, acting as a "stabilizer" and "propellant" within structural optimization. Furthermore, resilient exports will continue to serve as a stabilizer for economic growth in 2026.
Liu Peigan, Asia Economist at Fidelity International, also noted that despite a relatively complex domestic environment, supported by policy stability and the continued release of growth momentum, China's macroeconomic prospects are becoming more balanced and resilient. The "dual-track growth" pattern of relatively weak domestic demand and sustained strong exports is expected to persist. Mainland China's real GDP growth rate in 2026 is anticipated to reach or exceed the IMF's current forecast of 4.2%. Market consensus expects the GDP target to be close to 5%, primarily benefiting from manufacturing momentum, diversified export markets, and resilient infrastructure investment. However, investors should pay more attention to nominal growth and prudently assess profitability across different sectors.
From the perspective of Zhang Wenlang, Chief Macro Analyst at China International Capital Corporation (CICC), 2026 might see moderately strengthened aggregate policies, with structural efforts simultaneously targeting "increases and decreases" and "supply and demand" to achieve reasonable growth. On the supply side, while increasing the supply of high-quality consumption goods, efforts will continue to "combat involution" to reduce inefficient capacity. On the demand side, the structure of fiscal expenditure will also be optimized, increasing support for high-efficiency areas such as human capital throughout the lifecycle, technology, and new infrastructure, while reducing the proportion allocated to traditional infrastructure like municipal works and transportation.
Regarding the Renminbi exchange rate trend in 2026, Guan Tao, Global Chief Economist at BOC Securities, stated that China's economic recovery, trade surplus, alongside a depreciating US dollar and a potential truce in Sino-US trade tensions, could continue to favor the Renminbi.
The 4000-point level has transformed from resistance to support. At the beginning of 2026, the A-share market displayed a pattern of volatile upward movement with structural divergence. Data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange showed a significant increase in market activity in January, with turnover reaching 88.92 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 70%. Since February, the A-share market entered a phase of high-level volatile consolidation, fluctuating persistently around the 4000-4140 point range, with trading volume contracting before the holiday. In the new year, can the A-share market effectively consolidate above the key psychological barrier of 4000 points? Which sectors are poised to become the next market leaders?
Chen Li, Chief Economist at Chuancai Securities, stated directly that the A-share market can effectively hold above 4000 points within the year, and this level has transitioned from a historical resistance point to an important support level. The main driving forces include four aspects. First is policy and liquidity support: there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts, liquidity remains reasonably ample, capital market reforms continue to deepen, the pace of IPO issuance is optimized, and market supply-demand dynamics improve. Second is the improvement in profit fundamentals: the overall profit growth rate of A-shares is expected to increase from 6% in 2025 to 8%-14%, with profit recovery for non-financial enterprises being more pronounced. The bottoming out and rebound of the PPI (Producer Price Index) and the optimization of supply-demand patterns enhance corporate profitability.
Furthermore, sustained capital inflows are also an influencing factor, including the shift of household savings into the stock market, increased allocations to A-shares by northbound and long-term配置 funds, a significant rise in average daily turnover, and enhanced market trading activity. Lastly, market confidence is being restored: repeated fluctuations around the 4000-point level have solidified its foundation, investors are gradually forming expectations for a slow bull market, and the supportive effect of this psychological barrier is becoming prominent.
Hong Hao, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer at Lianghua Asset Management, went further, stating that 4000 points should not be seen as the endpoint of the rally, but rather a new starting point for the revaluation of Chinese assets. As an important integer threshold, 4000 points may indeed experience some volatility and "indecision" in the short term due to profit-taking. However, with the successive establishment of the policy bottom (September 2024), sentiment bottom (end of 2024), and liquidity bottom (July 2025), it is expected to transform from a past "resistance level" into a future "strong support level."
"More importantly, the forces driving this consolidation above 4000 points have undergone structural changes. The past was driven by a retail investor-led 'crazy bull,' whereas now we are witnessing a return of pricing power dominated by ETFs, long-term institutional funds, and some returning foreign capital. When the market's 'denominator' (liquidity and risk appetite) continues to improve, and the 'numerator' (corporate profitability) bottoms out and recovers in the inaugural year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, holding firmly above 4000 points becomes a high-probability event," said Hong Hao. Regarding the investment主线 for 2026, Li Zhan, Chief Economist of the Research Department at China Merchants Fund, anticipates that against the backdrop of a reshaping global economic格局 and the parallel transition of domestic old and new growth drivers, the investment focus in 2026 will更加突出 the dual logics of "endogenous growth" and "autonomous controllability."
International gold prices are expected to continue their volatile ascent. Compared to the steady rise of domestic A-shares, international gold prices experienced a rhythm of rapid surge, pullback, and rebound since the start of 2026. Looking back, the volatile upward trend in gold prices continued into January 2026.
Specifically, the spot price of London gold surged 13.01% in January alone, breaking above the $5,000 per ounce mark for the first time and approaching $5,600 at its peak, but exhibited sharp intraday volatility towards the month's end.
Wind data showed that on January 30, the spot price of London gold fell 9.25% in a single day, hitting a low of $4,682.55 per ounce. Since the sharp decline on January 30, the spot price of London gold has been oscillating around $5,000 for several consecutive trading sessions. As of the close on February 11, it was reported at $5,082.86 per ounce, up 1.22%.
Against this backdrop, will international gold prices continue to rise within the year? In the view of Yang Gang, Chief Economist at Golden Eagle Fund, the macroeconomic narrative favorable for gold price appreciation in 2026 continues, and may even strengthen during certain periods, including factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, the US dollar credit crisis, geopolitical conflicts, and central bank gold purchases. Therefore, even if recent international gold prices experience阶段性回调 due to trading factors or fund deleveraging, in the short term, prices might need 2-3 months to digest the recent rapid gains, leading to high-level volatility. However, from a medium-to-long-term perspective, gold prices in 2026 may still have room for volatile upward movement. At some point in 2026, international gold prices are expected to potentially challenge the $5,500-$6,000 per ounce range.
Li Zhan also believes that gold prices in 2026 are likely to exhibit a volatile upward trend. They may experience fluctuations in the first half of the year due to disturbances from the US dollar cycle, but in the second half, as the pace of global economic recovery becomes clearer and safe-haven demand normalizes, prices are expected to break through previous trading ranges, with the long-term upward logic remaining intact. Simultaneously, the core logic supporting gold prices remains unchanged: continued central bank purchases against the backdrop of global de-dollarization, the start of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, and geopolitical risks reinforcing safe-haven demand. Therefore, it remains necessary for ordinary investors to moderately allocate to gold, positioning it as a long-term strategic asset, while also not overlooking its short-term safe-haven function.