杰富瑞(Jefferies)全球宏观策略师Mohit Kumar表示，目前不太忧虑美国人工智能(AI)发展出泡沬，即使未来会有泡沬，估计亦需时至少两年时间才会形成。Kumar解释，现在美国超大规模云服务商(Hyperscalers)，其大部分AI资本开支都是来自现金，企业就AI投资而作出的借贷杠杆水平不高，估计要到明年底，借贷杠杆才会升至1999年至2000年科网泡沬时期的水平。
但他坦言近期已减持美国科技股持仓，原因是市场开始质疑有关资本开支能够带来多少回报。与此同时，Kumar改为高配中国科技股，称相信中国科技股在未来几年甚至几十年都会是大赢家，原因是中国的大模型如DeepSeek，能够以较美国同业为低的成本，做出质素仅略逊于美国同业的大模型。
Kumar预期美国今年下半年将减息两次，指AI会导致各国就业增长减少及通胀放缓，继而推动全球央行币策更为偏向鸽派。他续指，在各国财政扩张之下，全球流动性已较过往两年大增，这些资金最终都会流入不同资产类别，利好资产表现。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.