Abstract

Old National Bancorp will report quarterly results on October 21, 2025 Pre-Market; this preview outlines consensus expectations for revenue, margins, net profit, and EPS, and summarizes recent forecasts and institutional commentary since January 01, 2025 through January 14, 2026.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, forecasts compiled indicate estimated revenue of $706.24 million, estimated EBIT of $317.20 million, and estimated EPS of $0.59, implying year-over-year growth of 45.45%, 40.97%, and 28.70%, respectively. Forecast commentary points to stable profitability metrics this quarter, but there is no explicit gross profit margin or net profit margin forecast available, and no company-adjusted EPS guidance was disclosed in the collected dataset. The main business remains community banking, with expectations for resilient loan and deposit activity and a steady net interest income trajectory; fee-based lines are projected to be stable. The most promising segment is community banking, which generated $1.73 billion in revenue last quarter, though a precise year-over-year comparison was not provided in the dataset.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, Old National Bancorp delivered revenue of $705.07 million, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $179.00 million, a quarter-on-quarter net profit growth rate of 47.09%, and adjusted EPS of $0.59; gross margin and net profit margin were not disclosed in the dataset. One highlight was EBIT of $312.11 million, surpassing the prior estimate by $10.66 million, reflecting firm core profitability. The company’s main business was community banking, which recorded $1.73 billion in revenue; a year-over-year figure for this segment was not included in the dataset.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main operating engine: Community banking fundamentals

Community banking remains the central earnings engine, anchored by net interest income dynamics across loans and deposits. With market estimates pointing to revenue of $706.24 million and EBIT of $317.20 million this quarter, investors will focus on loan growth, margin stabilization, and credit provisioning trends that determine earnings conversion into EPS of $0.59. Funding costs remain a key watchpoint given competitive deposit markets; the ability to remix toward lower-cost deposits can cushion net interest margins and support stable pre-provision profitability.

Balance-sheet mix and loan pricing discipline can influence margin sustainability. If variable-rate loan repricing outpaces deposit repricing, the bank could see modest improvement in net interest income, supporting the EBIT trajectory implied by forecasts. Credit quality metrics, including nonperforming loans and net charge-offs, will be scrutinized for signs of normalization; contained credit costs would allow more of the pre-provision revenue to drop to the bottom line.

Fee-based contributions, while smaller for a community bank, can diversify revenue and reduce reliance on rate-sensitive net interest income. Stable service charges, wealth management, and card/interchange activity provide a buffer if loan volumes soften. Investors will look for commentary on fees to gauge resilience across rate cycles and to confirm the forecasted revenue stability.

Largest growth potential: Scaling core relationships

The bank’s most promising growth lever remains scaling its core community banking franchise by deepening primary relationships and cross-selling, which underpins both loan growth and low-cost deposit inflows. The last quarter’s $1.73 billion revenue base from community banking suggests a sizable platform to leverage incremental operating efficiency and pricing optimization. With the current quarter EPS forecast at $0.59 and EBIT estimate at $317.20 million, incremental operating leverage could emerge if expense growth trails revenue growth.

A focus on relationship-based deposits can mitigate funding cost pressure and help preserve net interest margins as competitive dynamics evolve. If management can expand noninterest-bearing or low-cost transaction accounts, the bank could reduce sensitivity to rate headwinds while supporting sustainable loan growth. In parallel, prudent underwriting and targeted sector exposure can moderate credit volatility, sustaining earnings visibility that aligns with the revenue and EBIT growth estimates.

The bank can also selectively expand higher-return niches within community banking, such as small business and commercial relationships, where treasury management and fee income add to total revenue per client. Execution on these initiatives would support the forecasted YoY revenue growth of 45.45% and help maintain the EPS outlook.

Key stock-price sensitivity: Margins, credit costs, and deposit mix

Stock performance this quarter is likely to track three variables: net interest margin trends, credit provisioning, and deposit mix. Consensus revenue and EBIT estimates imply confidence in stable pre-provision profitability, but deviations in deposit pricing or a shift toward higher-cost time deposits could pressure margins and alter the earnings path relative to the $0.59 EPS forecast. Management’s commentary on funding costs and deposit competition will offer critical signals for the coming quarter.

Credit normalization is another swing factor. If nonperforming assets or net charge-offs rise beyond expectations, provision expenses could dilute earnings despite stable pre-provision income, creating variance from the consensus EPS and EBIT figures. Conversely, benign credit conditions would validate the implied year-over-year growth embedded in the current quarter’s forecasts.

Finally, expense discipline and operating efficiency can amplify or dampen earnings sensitivity. Any unexpected increase in operating expenses could offset revenue gains, whereas continued cost control would enable a higher proportion of incremental revenue to convert into earnings, supporting the margin and EPS trajectory embedded in market expectations.

Analyst Opinions

Across collected commentary, the balance of institutional views skews bullish, with a larger share emphasizing stable core profitability, manageable funding costs, and resilient credit quality heading into the print. Bullish analysts highlight the prior quarter’s outperformance versus estimates—such as the $10.66 million EBIT surprise—and argue that stable deposit trends and expense control can sustain the forecasted EPS of $0.59 alongside year-over-year growth of 28.70%. They also point to the continued momentum in community banking revenue and the potential for operating leverage if revenue growth persists near the forecasted 45.45% year over year.

Several well-followed institutions frame the setup as favorable if deposit remixing continues toward lower-cost categories and if credit costs remain contained. The bullish case expects net interest income stability to underpin the $317.20 million EBIT estimate, with incremental upside if loan growth and fee income outperform. In contrast, bearish commentary, while present, is less prevalent and centers on the risk that funding costs could re-accelerate or that credit normalization could require higher provisioning; these concerns remain secondary in the current preview given recent execution and the positive year-over-year growth embedded in consensus.

Overall, the majority bullish view emphasizes that Old National Bancorp enters the quarter with constructive operating momentum, positive revenue and EPS growth expectations, and identifiable levers—deposit mix, disciplined underwriting, and cost control—that can help defend margins and support earnings delivery in line with or slightly ahead of forecasts.