The latest Pro Farmer crop tour data has revealed a striking divergence between corn and soybean conditions across the US Midwest, with drought stress weighing heavily on corn while soybeans have shown far greater resilience. The tour, conducted from August 18-21, covered key producing states including Ohio, South Dakota, Nebraska, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota, providing field-level assessments of corn yields and soybean pod counts during the critical pod-setting phase.

Heading into the tour, persistent high temperatures and dry conditions across the Midwest had fueled market concerns about potential yield losses, making the Pro Farmer results the dominant trading catalyst for CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal futures in late August. Market sentiment initially ran hot and then cooled quickly — the first two days of tour data painted a bearish picture, triggering sharp rallies in both external and domestic markets as traders priced in significant production losses. However, as results from the more critical producing regions of Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota emerged in the latter half of the tour, the picture shifted, revealing clear regional disparities that tempered expectations of a widespread shortfall and prompted prices to retreat from their highs.

Day One and Two: Early Bearish Signals

On the opening day, Ohio's 3x3 foot soybean pod count came in at 1,197.25, a notable decline from the 1,287.28 recorded in 2025 and the 1,256.71 three-year average from 2023-2025. South Dakota followed suit with a pod count of 945.98 across 93 samples, substantially below both last year's levels and the multi-year average. These figures triggered a sharp rally in CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal futures, amplifying worries about the 2026/27 US soybean crop.

Day two data remained equally downbeat, though the pace of gains on the futures market had already begun to narrow. Nebraska's soybean pod count fell to 1,219.62 from 1,348.31 in 2025, slightly below the three-year average. Indiana reported 1,318.64 pods across 182 samples, also lagging behind 2025 and the recent average.

Day Three and Four: Core Regions Show Resilience

The narrative shifted notably in the final two days. Illinois recorded a soybean pod count of 1,430.37 for 2026, compared with a 2023-2025 average of 1,389.65 — a year-on-year decline but comfortably above the three-year mean. Iowa posted 1,362.93 pods, versus a 1,295.70 average, also slightly below last year but above the recent norm, indicating generally satisfactory crop development in these key states.

In aggregate, the Pro Farmer tour projected US corn production at 15.344 billion bushels with a national average yield of 173.2 bushels per acre, with a variance of ±1%. The corn production range spans from 15.191 billion to 15.498 billion bushels, with yield estimates between 171.5 and 175.0 bushels per acre. For soybeans, the tour estimated total production at 4.572 billion bushels with an average yield of 53.3 bushels per acre, carrying a ±2% variance. Soybean production is projected between 4.48 billion and 4.664 billion bushels, with yields ranging from 52.2 to 54.4 bushels per acre.

The overarching takeaway is clear: corn suffered far greater damage from the summer's heat and drought than soybeans. While Iowa and Illinois soybean pod counts came in weaker than 2025 levels, both exceeded the 2023-2025 averages, and Minnesota showed particularly strong performance with pod counts above both last year and the historical mean. Following the release of these figures, the market's earlier production-loss expectations were dialed back, triggering a visible pullback in CBOT soybean and domestic soybean meal prices.

Key Takeaways from the Tour

First, the commodity divergence is unmistakable. The 2026/27 US corn crop bore the brunt of the high temperatures and drought, largely because July — the critical pollination period for corn — saw poor precipitation across the Midwest. As a result, the tour's measured corn yields in most states fell significantly below USDA's earlier projections. Soybeans, by contrast, have their critical growth phase in August and possess stronger drought tolerance. Following several effective rainfall events, pod counts in core regions like Iowa and Illinois mostly surpassed their three-year averages, leaving the overall soybean crop in favorable shape.

Second, regional differentiation played a key role. Peripheral production areas such as Ohio and South Dakota, which have relatively limited output shares, posted weaker data and amplified market panic during the first two days. However, when the tour reached Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota — which together account for nearly one-third of US soybean production — conditions proved largely adequate, with Minnesota's crop standing out as particularly strong. This helped alleviate production concerns and drove prices lower.

Third, it is important to recognize the limitations of the Pro Farmer tour. The survey follows a fixed route and represents a sampling exercise rather than a comprehensive assessment of the entire crop. It only captures field conditions during the mid-to-late August pod-setting phase, leaving room for significant yield adjustments if weather patterns shift later in the season.

Looking Ahead: Weather Window Closing, Demand Takes Center Stage

On the soybean front, with the USDA August report at 52.7 bushels per acre and the Pro Farmer estimate at 53.3, further yield adjustments are likely to emerge in upcoming USDA monthly supply-demand reports. Current conditions suggest a generally healthy crop, and supply-side pressure continues to cap price upside. As late August approaches, the weather trading window is gradually closing. Going forward, attention will shift to weather conditions during the harvest period, though the impact there is typically less pronounced than during the growing season.

Demand-side dynamics for new-crop US soybeans will hinge primarily on export activity. Recent reports of continued Chinese purchases of US soybeans have elicited a relatively muted market response, so traders should monitor developments in Sino-US soybean trade policy. Overall, the market's focus for the 2026/27 soybean season is expected to shift from supply to demand, with CBOT soybean prices likely to face limited upside and maintain a high-level range-bound pattern.

On the domestic front, trading sentiment in Chinese soybean meal and soybean oil markets has cooled noticeably, tracking the pullback in CBOT soybeans, while rapeseed meal has shown comparatively less volatility. Fundamentals point to seasonally high soybean arrivals at ports, with crushers maintaining elevated processing rates above 2.2 million tonnes. Soybean meal spot supply remains ample, and inventories continue to build. However, as we move into September, both arrivals and crushing volumes are likely to decline, which could ease pressure on the domestic cash market. Overall, domestic soybean meal futures are expected to remain range-bound at high levels with limited upside and a risk of corrections, while rapeseed meal is likely to trade in a more subdued manner.