Abstract

Banco Santander Chile will report its quarterly financial results on January 30, 2026 Pre-Market, with expectations pointing to modest revenue growth and lower earnings per share compared with the year-ago period.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, projections indicate revenue of USD 754.18 million (+0.79% YoY), EBIT of USD 336.87 million (-2.94% YoY), and adjusted EPS of USD 0.60 (-14.42% YoY); margin guidance for gross profit and net profit was not provided in the available forecasts. Retail Banking is projected to remain the largest revenue contributor, with performance shaped by deposit pricing discipline and loan mix stabilization. Wealth Management & Insurance appears positioned to capture incremental fee flows; its last reported revenue was USD 24.80 billion, and YoY growth data was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

Banco Santander Chile delivered last quarter revenue of USD 742.11 million, gross profit margin data was unavailable, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 255.34 billion, a net profit margin of 45.65%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.54 (-1.46% YoY). EBIT registered at USD 467.18 million (-1.85% YoY), while net profit showed a quarter-on-quarter uptick of 3.16%, signaling resilience in bottom-line performance despite softer year-over-year earnings metrics. Retail Banking led with USD 440.22 billion in revenue, while Corporate & Investment Banking contributed USD 108.04 billion and Companies and Institutions reached USD 74.10 billion; YoY trends by segment were not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Banking Performance (Retail Banking)

Retail Banking remains the core earnings engine for Banco Santander Chile, anchored by deposit franchises and broad consumer and SME lending activity. Balance sheet repricing dynamics will be critical: the trajectory of deposit costs versus loan yields will influence net interest spread capture and revenue durability through the quarter. Management’s execution on curating loan mix—balancing unsecured consumer exposures with secured mortgages and SME credit—can help stabilize credit costs, which feed directly into the EPS outcome. Fee income from payments, cards, and transactional services will also matter, as fee resilience can partly offset spread compression and add to non-interest revenue stability. With adjusted EPS expected at USD 0.60 (-14.42% YoY), the pressure is likely to stem from a combination of narrower spreads and cost normalization, even as Retail Banking remains the largest contributor to the overall revenue base. Operational efficiency—expense control, technology investments that reduce unit costs, and lower branch overhead—will meaningfully affect EBIT, which is projected at USD 336.87 million (-2.94% YoY).

Wealth Management & Insurance

Wealth Management & Insurance represents a strategic adjacency, delivering last quarter revenue of USD 24.80 billion, supported by bancassurance, savings, and investment solutions offered across the franchise. The segment’s revenue scale indicates entrenched customer penetration, and cross-selling within Retail Banking could be instrumental in sustaining fee streams this quarter. In an environment where lending margins face headwinds, incremental fee generation from advisory, asset allocation, and insurance distribution can provide a cushion to EPS and EBIT. The commercial levers include packaging products for higher-earning households, improving digital engagement to enhance conversion, and refining pricing to align with demand elasticity across savings and protection lines. While YoY growth by segment was not disclosed, traction in recurring fee products and insurance uptake would support total revenue near the forecast of USD 754.18 million (+0.79% YoY) and mitigate earnings softness implied by the EPS decline. Execution sensitivity is high: converting client activity into steady fee revenues can meaningfully influence quarterly performance visibility.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The most direct stock price driver will be the EPS print relative to expectations, given the forecast of USD 0.60 and YoY decline of 14.42%. Delivery against EBIT expectations—USD 336.87 million (-2.94% YoY)—will also be closely watched, as it signals how effectively operating income has been protected while absorbing changes in funding costs and credit provision needs. Reported net profit margin trends and any commentary on net interest spread will shape sentiment: last quarter’s net profit margin was 45.65%, and investors will parse whether margin resilience can be maintained amid evolving deposit rates and lending yields. Credit quality metrics, including stages of delinquencies and loan-loss provisions, will influence perceptions of future profitability, since marginal changes in provisioning can swing EPS outcomes for the quarter. Revenue mix matters: while total revenue is forecast at USD 754.18 million (+0.79% YoY), the distribution between interest income and fees can affect stability, with a heavier fee mix generally seen as supportive when spreads compress. Operational cost control, branch footprint efficiency, automation, and technology-enabled productivity will be scrutinized in management’s remarks, as these factors can offset earnings pressure and stabilize EBIT. Finally, FX translation and macro inputs can affect reported figures, but the key visibility comes from management’s near-term guidance around spreads, funding costs, and fee momentum in core franchises.

Analyst Opinions

Bearish views dominate in the current window, with notable institutional commentary signaling caution into the print. Goldman Sachs downgraded Banco Santander Chile to a Sell rating, with a price target of USD 29.00, reflecting concern over the near-term earnings trajectory and the implied YoY EPS decline of 14.42% embedded in current-quarter forecasts. The framing from this viewpoint centers on the balance of modest revenue growth—USD 754.18 million (+0.79% YoY)—against evidence of earnings pressure: EBIT is projected to decline by 2.94% YoY and adjusted EPS is expected to be lower against the prior-year period. In this lens, the margin picture is a central uncertainty; while last quarter’s net profit margin was 45.65%, visibility on sustaining similar levels in the current quarter appears limited without clear improvements in funding costs or a stronger fee contribution. The bearish case emphasizes that even resilient top-line outcomes can be overshadowed by cost normalization, provisioning needs, and spread compression that is common when deposit rates rise faster than loan yields. With last quarter EBIT at USD 467.18 million (-1.85% YoY) and revenue at USD 742.11 million (-0.64% YoY), the Sell rating aligns with a view that incremental operating earnings progress may be constrained until pricing dynamics and cost-of-risk trends show clearer improvement. The key watchpoints for those holding a cautious stance include performance relative to the adjusted EPS forecast of USD 0.60, commentary on net interest spread durability, and explicit signals around fee growth in Wealth Management & Insurance and Retail Banking to compensate for pressure on interest-based revenues. Under this framework, delivery that meets or exceeds EBIT and EPS expectations could challenge the bearish narrative, but the base case remains guarded due to the forecast contraction in per-share earnings and the uncertainty surrounding margin drivers this quarter.