Despite Wall Street's pessimistic outlook for 2026 crude oil demand, OPEC remains steadfast in its optimistic projections. The organization's latest monthly report reveals that OPEC+ slightly increased crude production in November, with eight member nations advancing new output hikes, while maintaining unchanged forecasts for robust demand growth next year.
In contrast, major Wall Street institutions—including Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley—anticipate a significant global supply glut in 2026. Their consensus predicts Brent crude futures, currently trading at $61-62 per barrel, will decline to around $59 by 2026. The international benchmark has already dropped nearly 20% this year.
OPEC+ (comprising OPEC and allies like Russia) produced 43.06 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, up 43,000 bpd from October. The cartel dismissed "supply surplus" concerns, asserting the market remains "fundamentally balanced" with steady demand growth. It forecasts Q1 2026 demand for OPEC+ crude at 42.6 million bpd, averaging 43 million bpd for the full year, and upheld unchanged demand growth projections for 2025-2026, citing resilient global economic conditions.
Goldman Sachs and peers project a 2026 oversupply of 2.2 million bpd, with Brent averaging $56 and WTI at $52—well below current levels. JPMorgan analysts warn Brent could average $57-58 in 2026-2027, potentially crashing to $30 without major OPEC+ cuts. They estimate required production reductions of 2 million bpd starting mid-2026.
These bank forecasts contrast with Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives, Inc. (IEA) estimates of a record 4 million bpd surplus, though the agency notes producer adjustments may mitigate the imbalance. The IEA marginally raised 2024-2025 demand growth expectations amid improved macroeconomic conditions and eased tariff concerns, while lowering 2025-2026 supply growth projections due to sanctions-hit Russian and Venezuelan exports. Global November supply fell by 610,000 bpd monthly, with Russian oil revenues hitting post-Ukraine conflict lows.