高盛集团近日调整了对美国经济前景的评估，将未来12个月内发生经济衰退的概率从25%下调至15%。这一修正主要基于两大积极因素：与伊朗达成的和平协议以及能源价格的持续回落。
该行指出，能源成本下降有效缓解了通胀压力，为经济提供了缓冲空间。值得注意的是，调整后的衰退概率甚至低于冲突爆发前的20%预估水平。高盛分析显示，自冲突缓和以来，劳动力市场状况已出现显著改善，就业数据表现强劲，进一步支撑了经济软着陆的乐观预期。
市场观察人士认为，此次预测调整反映了地缘政治紧张局势缓和与国内经济韧性共同作用下的积极信号。尽管风险并未完全消除，但经济下行压力已明显减轻。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.