Nasdaq futures are advancing as NVIDIA's optimistic revenue outlook reinforces conviction that the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence investment has further room to run. Oil prices continue to ease, while U.S. Treasury markets show limited movement as investors await Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's keynote address at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. As of the latest update, Dow futures are down 0.03%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.42%, and Nasdaq futures have climbed 0.94%. HP shares are tumbling on concerns over soft demand for the company's personal computers and printing divisions. The Europe Stoxx 600 index is declining, as weakness in consumer stocks offsets gains in the technology sector. The MSCI All-Country World Index is holding roughly steady. Most Asian markets with a heavier technology weighting are moving higher, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index advancing 0.3% for a third consecutive session of gains. South Korea's KOSPI index is up 1.5%, though off its earlier intraday highs, after the Bank of Korea raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3%, in line with market expectations—which had only leaned marginally toward a hike beforehand.
NVIDIA's earnings report is boosting market sentiment, with shares rising 7.3% in pre-market trading after the company issued fiscal 2028 revenue growth guidance that far exceeded prior analyst projections. Salesforce shares are soaring 11% following a strong outlook from the software firm, bolstering investor confidence in its ability to compete successfully in the AI era. On Wednesday, NVIDIA projected revenue growth of approximately 70% for the fiscal year ending January 2028, significantly above analyst expectations. The company also noted that supply constraints on memory components will continue to limit the pace of its capacity expansion. Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, remarked that "NVIDIA's results simply cannot be ignored," highlighting that the key lies in the company's sales outlook. "No matter how high market expectations were, and regardless of how elevated so-called whisper numbers had become, NVIDIA ultimately managed to surpass all of them."
Renewed confidence in tech is also being supported by a $31 billion collaboration announced between Kioxia Holdings and SanDisk aimed at expanding flash memory capacity to meet AI-driven storage demand, further lifting sentiment across the technology sector. NVIDIA's upbeat forward guidance has alleviated concerns about a potential bubble in the AI economy. Chief Executive Jensen Huang stated that demand for AI accelerators used in model training and inference continues to expand. Geoff Yu of BNY noted that "earnings growth from core technology companies is absolutely critical, as it serves as the primary driver of the U.S. market, and tech investment is also a key engine of U.S. economic growth." He added, however, that "robust growth also carries the risk of tighter monetary policy, and the current market base case still assumes rates may remain relatively elevated." Amanda Lyons, head of research at Energy Group Capital, observed that NVIDIA's report indicates the primary constraints on the current AI cycle are physical infrastructure bottlenecks such as memory and power, rather than insufficient end demand. She said this "effectively pushes concerns about the AI cycle further into the future, and more importantly, it gives investors reason to extend earnings growth expectations not just for NVIDIA, but also for second and third-tier beneficiaries across the AI infrastructure buildout."
Some softness in other markets is tempering Thursday's optimism. U.S. Treasuries are slightly weaker, with the 10-year yield up 2 basis points to 4.67%. Markets are awaiting Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole in Wyoming on Friday for further clues on the path of U.S. interest rates. In the eurozone, German Bund yields are up 0.7 basis points to 3.229%, as rising natural gas prices intensify inflation concerns. The dollar is hovering near a one-week high, with the dollar index—which measures the currency against six major peers—remaining close to its recent peak. This follows U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data showing a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the July price index, after a 0.1% decline the prior month. Jim Reid, global head of macro research at Deutsche Bank, noted that "while the July core PCE inflation print was in line with market expectations, the details actually lean more toward inflationary pressure." He added that the strong economic momentum reflected in durable goods orders and GDP data is difficult to reconcile with the view that monetary policy remains restrictive. The yen showed little change after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino indicated the central bank will continue monitoring inflation risks, with markets increasingly pricing in a September rate hike. Brent crude futures are down 1.1% to $86.8 per barrel, poised for a fourth consecutive daily decline. Meanwhile, Qatar's Prime Minister is visiting Tehran on Thursday in an effort to revive peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. A Westpac analyst commented that "despite significant uncertainty surrounding the management of the Strait of Hormuz and global oil supply conditions, crude prices continue to gradually ease, particularly against the backdrop of Russian President Vladimir Putin once again issuing threats to escalate the Russia-Ukraine conflict."
Bitcoin remains constrained below the $80,000 level, while gold hovers near $4,600. Gold prices fell 1.4% on Wednesday, marking the largest single-day decline in a week. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that "despite slightly higher U.S. inflation data yesterday, ongoing global debt concerns continue to underpin demand for gold." In cryptocurrency markets, bitcoin is up 0.5% to $78,802. Earlier this week, bitcoin briefly broke above $80,000, reaching that level for the first time in over three months. Ethereum is up 0.8% to $2,493. Gold, bitcoin, and ethereum have all recently benefited from a resurgence of the so-called "dollar debasement trade," following the U.S. Treasury's intervention in the bond market last week, which reignited investor focus on the long-term purchasing power of the dollar. So far this month, gold, bitcoin, and ethereum have gained approximately 14%, 25%, and 34%, respectively. Additionally, wheat prices have hit record highs, with rising food costs continuing to fuel inflation concerns amid still-elevated energy prices.
Focus now shifts to the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is set to deliver his first major speech since taking office on Friday, having faced market criticism for a lack of clarity on the economic outlook and policy stance. Jesper Fjarstedt, an analyst at Danske Bank, wrote in a client note that Wednesday's PCE data showed U.S. inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, increasing pressure on Warsh to signal a potential rate hike. Caspar Rock, investment manager at Schroders Wealth Management, said "markets want to see more hawkish signals, as some recent economic growth and inflation data have been quite strong, supporting the case for rates staying elevated rather than declining further." He added that "clearer policy signals should boost market confidence, which could drive the dollar stronger rather than supporting fixed income markets."
Kuwait and Qatar have joined the "shuttle shipping" effort, with oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz recovering to roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels. Gulf producers Kuwait and Qatar are increasing crude shipments through the strait, with their combined exports having recovered to about 70% of the pre-war level of approximately 2 million barrels per day. Traders indicate that between 7 million and 8 million barrels per day are currently being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, up from roughly 4 million barrels in mid-July and equivalent to about three-quarters of pre-war levels. Vortexa data from Monday, however, suggests flows are closer to 10 million barrels per day.
Key stock movers include NVIDIA, whose second-quarter revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, with revenue more than doubling year-over-year; shares are up over 7% in pre-market trading. According to LSEG data, the company reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.22 on revenue of $96.22 billion, versus analyst consensus of $2.10 EPS and $92.17 billion in revenue. The company also guided third-quarter revenue to $108 billion, above market estimates. Discount retailer Dollar General is surging 12% after raising its full-year earnings guidance to $7.80-$8.00 per share, up from a prior range of $7.20-$7.45. The company also stated it "plans to execute share repurchases under its existing stock buyback program in the second half of the current fiscal year ending January 29, 2027." Despite reporting better-than-expected fiscal third-quarter results and full-year earnings guidance that exceeded estimates, HP shares are down nearly 11%. Wendy's is plunging nearly 15% following reports that Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management has no plans to acquire the fast-food chain, after the Financial Times earlier this month reported Peltz was preparing a take-private offer. Software giant Salesforce is up nearly 12%, reporting adjusted EPS of $5.90 versus the LSEG analyst estimate of $3.27. Identity security provider Okta is surging over 19% after exceeding analyst expectations, reporting adjusted EPS of $1.05 on revenue of $805 million, versus consensus estimates of $0.97 EPS and $795 million in revenue, while also raising its full-year earnings and revenue guidance. Cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike is up nearly 10% after its fiscal second-quarter revenue and EPS both surpassed market consensus, with full-year earnings guidance also exceeding expectations. Data management and storage company Everpure is up nearly 3% after Bank of America upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy, citing multiple reasons including expectations for upward earnings estimate revisions and revenue growth driven by its internal business serving large cloud providers. Citi has downgraded Abercrombie & Fitch from Buy to Neutral, citing limited upside after a significant run-up in the stock, which is down 1.4%; the apparel brand had gained 35% earlier this week following better-than-expected second-quarter results and a raised full-year outlook.