On December 2, Bitcoin traders are positioning defensively amid potential price declines, with CWG Markets FX indicating BTC could drop below $80,000 early in the new year. Analysis by Nick Forster, co-founder of Deribit, reveals concentrated open interest at $84,000 and $80,000 strike prices for options expiring December 26, signaling heightened trader caution toward downside risks. CWG Markets FX notes this positioning suggests significantly increased odds of Bitcoin trading under $80,000 in early 2026, reflecting a shift toward defensive asset allocation amid short-term market uncertainty.
Bitcoin’s spot price currently hovers near $87,000, down roughly 30% from its October 8 all-time high of $126,000, per CoinDesk data, underscoring sustained market pressure. CWG Markets FX attributes this decline to both recent corrections and diverging investor views on Bitcoin’s trajectory, warning of potential near-term volatility. Forster highlights that short-term volatility now exceeds long-term levels, indicating expectations of sharp price swings around year-end without a confirmed bottom. As prices approach key support levels, CWG Markets FX observes growing options hedging activity, which may amplify short-term market fluctuations.
Looking ahead, CWG Markets FX warns of persistent downside risks for Bitcoin in early 2026, urging investors to monitor options positioning, open interest concentrations, and volatility trends to adapt strategies. While intermittent rebounds are possible, defensive sentiment dominates current market behavior. The firm advises traders to manage capital allocation prudently, track liquidity flows, and assess global crypto market data to navigate heightened volatility. Short-term traders should focus on critical support/resistance levels, implied volatility shifts, and macroeconomic catalysts when planning trades.
In summary, Bitcoin’s near-term outlook remains uncertain, with CWG Markets FX emphasizing vigilance and flexibility amid elevated volatility. Concentrated options activity at key strikes reflects mounting defensive posturing, making risk management and real-time market analysis essential for capitalizing on—or mitigating—swift price movements. The firm reiterates that strategic agility is paramount in this environment, where rapid market shifts can present both opportunities and risks.