In pre-market trading on Friday, January 30, futures for all three major U.S. stock indices were down. At the time of writing, Dow futures had fallen 0.32%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.37%, and Nasdaq futures declined 0.49%.

At the time of writing, Germany's DAX index was up 1.04%, the UK's FTSE 100 index gained 0.45%, France's CAC 40 index rose 0.76%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index increased 1.04%.

At the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell 0.61% to $65.02 per barrel. Brent crude dropped 0.73% to $69.08 per barrel.

Market news indicates that while Trump has nominated Warsh to helm the Federal Reserve, political maneuvering on Capitol Hill could potentially deadlock the nomination process. On his Truth Social platform, Trump announced his intention to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. However, Warsh's path to confirmation may encounter some turbulence. The Justice Department is currently investigating a 2025 building renovation project at the Fed and has issued a subpoena. Some Republican lawmakers have explicitly stated they will block any Fed personnel nominations until the legal issues are resolved. Furthermore, financial markets appear to uniformly view this historically hawkish candidate as more aggressive than other potential nominees and the incumbent Chair Powell. He is highly likely to introduce a unique policy combination of "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts," which could be detrimental to liquidity expansion in stock and bond markets. Some analysts suggest that if Warsh becomes the next Fed Chair, "the Fed could become even more hawkish, and people might see fewer rate cuts." At the time of writing, the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields were rising, while futures for the three major U.S. stock indices, precious and industrial metals, and international oil prices were all declining.

Gold and silver experienced a dramatic plunge! After a series of recent gains that pushed them to record highs, gold and silver saw significant declines on Friday. At the time of writing, spot gold was down over 5% to $5,099 per ounce, having fallen below $5,000 intraday. Spot silver plummeted over 12% to $101.4 per ounce, after dropping below $95 per ounce during the session. The sharp reversal following recent record-breaking rallies has led investors to question whether this bull run is nearing its end. Another factor fueling these concerns is the record-breaking influx of Asian investor capital into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). OCBC strategist Christopher Wong stated that the movement in gold and silver "confirms the cautionary tale of 'sharp rises and falls'." He noted that while the Warsh nomination news served as a trigger, a pullback was long overdue, stating, "It's like the kind of reason the market has been waiting for to end the previous parabolic rise."

Trump and Democrats have reached a temporary agreement, temporarily averting a government shutdown crisis. President Trump and Senate Democrats have struck a provisional deal to avoid a disruptive U.S. government shutdown. The White House is continuing negotiations with Democrats aimed at imposing new restrictions on immigration raids that have sparked nationwide protests. Trump announced that an agreement had been reached and urged bipartisan support for a vote. House officials passed the extensive spending bill last week before leaving Washington. Any amendments to the bill would require another House vote. However, the House is in recess and may not return until next Monday, which would trigger a brief government shutdown, though the practical impact on government operations is likely to be limited.

Overbought alerts are sounding: Bank of America signals global equities have hit a sell signal threshold. Strategists at Bank of America pointed out that global stock markets are flashing overbought warning signals, with their moving average levels reaching a historical threshold that typically indicates a sell signal for risk assets. In a report led by strategist Michael Hartnett, the team wrote that as of the week ending January 28, approximately 89% of MSCI stock indices were trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This figure surpassed the bank's 88% threshold, which it considers a sell signal. BofA strategists noted that this excessive market positioning coincided with investors withdrawing $15.4 billion from equity funds during the week, highlighting growing caution as markets push higher. Hartnett indicated that BofA's Bull & Bear Indicator still shows investor sentiment in "extreme" bullish territory, as the broad strength in global equity indices and robust credit market performance have so far offset the equity outflows.

"New Bond King" Gundlach is bearish on the U.S., with his latest investment strategy focusing on three key directions. Jeff Gundlach, the prominent fixed-income investor often called the "New Bond King," stated that avoiding the U.S. market is a core theme of his latest investment strategy. He identified two primary risks dominating his macro outlook and driving his bearish view on U.S. markets: persistently high inflation and a weakening U.S. dollar. He ranks investing in non-U.S. equities as his top recommended strategy, with emerging markets being a key sector he favors. He advises investors to allocate 30% to 40% of their portfolios to international stocks and to avoid U.S. equities entirely. He remains a long-term bull on bonds, particularly short-term bonds, but holds a bearish view on long-term bonds. He also noted that, given the U.S. dollar's diminished status as a safe-haven asset, precious metals like gold and silver have become high-quality safe-haven assets for investors, and commodities also present allocation opportunities.

In company-specific news, Apple (AAPL.US) reported a blowout Q1 performance that exceeded expectations: its strongest iPhone quarter ever drove record revenue, with Greater China sales surging 38% year-over-year. For the first fiscal quarter ended December 27, 2025, Apple's total revenue reached a record $143.8 billion, a 16% increase year-over-year, significantly surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $138.4 billion and exceeding the company's own previous guidance of 10%-12% growth. Earnings per share were $2.84, also beating the market expectation of $2.68. As Apple's core revenue driver, the iPhone business experienced explosive growth this quarter, with revenue hitting $85.3 billion, a substantial 23% increase year-over-year, far exceeding analyst expectations of $78.2 billion and marking its best quarterly performance on record. Greater China was the standout highlight of the report, with regional revenue reaching $25.5 billion, a 38% surge year-over-year, vastly outperforming market expectations of $21.8 billion. Beyond the iPhone, Apple's Services business continued its steady growth trajectory, with quarterly revenue reaching $30 billion, a 14% increase year-over-year, setting a new record and largely meeting market expectations of $300.7 billion. For future performance, Apple provided upbeat guidance, forecasting second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 13%-16% year-over-year, significantly higher than Wall Street's expectation of 10%.

Apple announced that a more personalized Siri will launch this year, while storage price increases and tight 3nm capacity pose gross margin pressures for Q2. Apple CEO Tim Cook announced during the earnings call that Apple is collaborating with Google to develop the next-generation Apple foundational model, which will power a more personalized Siri set to launch this year. This partnership marks a significant strategic shift in Apple's AI approach. CFO Kevan Parekh noted that due to demand far exceeding expectations, the iPhone is currently facing significant supply constraints, which are expected to persist into the next quarter. Cook explained that the bottleneck primarily stems from insufficient production capacity at the advanced 3nm process node used for the latest SoC chips. Additionally, management warned of substantial price increases for memory chips. While the impact on Q1 fiscal 2026 gross margin is expected to be limited, it is anticipated to pressure Q2 margins. However, bolstered by a higher mix of premium models and economies of scale, Apple still provided strong Q2 gross margin guidance of 48%-49%.

AI storage demand shows no signs of slowing! SanDisk (SNDK.US) issued "crushing" earnings guidance. Earnings reports showed that SanDisk's Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue grew 61.2% year-over-year to $3.03 billion, beating market expectations of $2.69 billion; earnings per share were $5.15, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.54. Adjusted gross margin was 51.1%, significantly stronger than the expected 42%. By business segment, Data Center revenue surged 64% sequentially to $440 million, Edge Computing revenue grew 21% to $1.678 billion, and Consumer business revenue increased 39% to $907 million. Looking ahead, SanDisk expects Q3 adjusted EPS to be between $12 and $14, an outlook that thoroughly crushes the consensus estimate of $5.11; the company also anticipates stronger revenue growth, projecting a range of $4.4 billion to $4.8 billion. At the time of writing, SanDisk shares were soaring over 20% in Friday's pre-market trading.

Capitalizing fully on the "AI infrastructure dividend"! Western Digital (WDC.US) reported explosive growth, with net profit surging 296%. For the second fiscal quarter ended January 2, 2026, the company's total revenue increased significantly by 25% year-over-year to $3.02 billion, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of approximately $2.95 billion. Net profit was approximately $1.802 billion, a dramatic 296% increase year-over-year. Adjusted gross margin was 46.1%, higher than the analyst average expectation of 44.5%; adjusted earnings per share were $2.13, beating the analyst average estimate of approximately $1.93. Free cash flow was approximately $653 million, also above the analyst average expectation of $637 million. The company expects third fiscal quarter adjusted EPS to be between $2.15 and $2.45, far exceeding the consensus estimate of approximately $1.99; it anticipates revenue between $3.1 billion and $3.3 billion, also higher than the analyst expectation of approximately $3.0 billion. However, at the time of writing, Western Digital shares were down over 3% in Friday's pre-market trading.

KLA-Tencor (KLAC.US) reported Q2 results beating expectations on both top and bottom lines and provided strong guidance, but valuation risks following the AI rally spark concerns. Earnings reports showed that KLA-Tencor's Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue grew 7.2% year-over-year to $3.30 billion, better than market expectations of $3.26 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $8.85, surpassing the market expectation of $8.80. This robust performance was largely attributed to the massive global build-out of AI infrastructure. The company's CEO emphasized that KLA-Tencor's dominant position in semiconductor process control makes it a core beneficiary as chipmakers transition to more advanced process nodes. Looking forward, the company expects Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue to be around $3.35 billion, with adjusted EPS anticipated around $9.08. However, the stock was lower in pre-market trading, primarily due to investor concerns over KLA-Tencor's historically high valuation and wariness regarding the company's revenue growth rate, which has slowed for three consecutive quarters. At the time of writing, KLA-Tencor shares were down 8% in Friday's pre-market trading.

Strong holiday spending drives significant payment volume growth! Visa (V.US) Q1 earnings beat expectations, reaffirms full-year "double-digit" growth target. Visa's adjusted earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 were $3.17 per share, a 15% increase year-over-year, exceeding the average estimate of $3.14; revenue grew 14.6% year-over-year to $10.9 billion, also beating expectations. Total payments volume processed by Visa during the quarter was $3.87 trillion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.83 trillion; total processed transactions increased 9% year-over-year to 69.4 billion, slightly below the expected 69.7 billion. The credit card network giant reaffirmed its expectations for fiscal 2026 EPS, net revenue, and operating expense growth, all projected to increase in the "low double-digit" percentage range.

Revenue growth without corresponding profit growth! Nomura Holdings (NMR.US) Q3 net profit fell 10% year-over-year, plans 600 billion yen stock buyback. For the third fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025, the company's net revenue was 551.8 billion yen, a 10% increase year-over-year; pre-tax profit was 135.2 billion yen, down 2% year-over-year; net profit was 91.6 billion yen, a 10% decrease year-over-year. Non-interest expenses in Q3 rose 15% year-over-year to 416.5 billion yen; the effective tax rate was 30.1%, higher than the 24.7% rate a year earlier and the 29.9% rate in the previous quarter. Additionally, the company announced a plan to repurchase up to 60 billion yen worth of shares, representing up to 3.2% of its stock.

Exxon Mobil (XOM.US) Q4 profit exceeds expectations, investment discipline trumps political pressure. Benefiting from increased crude oil production and improved refining margins, Exxon Mobil's profit surpassed expectations, successfully offsetting the impact of falling crude oil prices. Earnings reports showed the company's Q4 adjusted net profit was $1.71 per share, beating the average estimate by 2 cents. Capital expenditures for the year are projected to be approximately $28 billion, below last year's $29 billion. Exxon Mobil's Golden Pass LNG export facility in Texas is expected to begin operations early this year, while the company advances a giant gas export project in Mozambique. These commitments may indicate that Exxon Mobil feels no urgent need to invest in Venezuela. CEO Woods stated he is open to sending teams to the country to analyze opportunities, but any investment must be secure and meet economic criteria.

Chevron (CVX.US) Q4 EPS beats expectations, plans Venezuela output increase without new equipment purchases. Earnings reports showed Chevron's Q4 adjusted EPS was $1.52, better than the market expectation of $1.38. Chevron expects further growth this year, with production projected to increase approximately 8%, primarily from oil fields in Guyana and the Eastern Mediterranean. Chevron's spending discipline, highly regarded on Wall Street, faces pressure from Trump, who wants the company to make substantial investments in Venezuela. Chevron plans to increase production in Venezuela by 50% over the next two years, but according to Vice Chairman Mark Nelson, the company will utilize existing surface equipment and other assets, suggesting no major change to its capital budget.

Countdown to the largest merger in the oil and gas industry in recent years? Rumors suggest Permian giants Coterra (CTRA.US) and Devon Energy (DVN.US) are exploring a merger. According to people familiar with the matter, U.S. Permian Basin oil and gas giant Coterra Energy and Devon Energy are in advanced talks regarding a merger; if completed, it would rank among the largest M&A transactions in the global oil and gas sector in recent years. The sources indicated that the two energy giants could announce a deal within days. They added that no final decision has been made, the timing could change, and negotiations might still fall apart. A deal would strengthen their market-leading position in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, giving them greater scale to better compete with rivals like Exxon Mobil.

Key upcoming economic data and events schedule: Beijing Time 21:30 U.S. December PPI Data Beijing Time 22:45 U.S. January Chicago PMI Beijing Time Next Day 00:00 U.S. President Trump signs an executive order Beijing Time Next Day 02:30 2028 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy Beijing Time Next Day 06:00 Fed Governor Bowman speaks on monetary policy supervision issues