Silver has staged a powerful breakout from the symmetrical triangle pattern it consolidated within for most of February. This move could be an attempt to front-run the reopening of the mainland China market, a reaction to renewed trade tensions following last Friday's US Supreme Court ruling on reciprocal tariffs, or a combination of both. Conventional wisdom suggests we may now see a price retest of the pattern's upper boundary near $92.20. This level is viewed as critically important.
A sequence of lower highs has been broken. However, a decisive break above $92.20, and more importantly $92.88—a level that coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the January-February decline—could incentivize sidelined bulls to re-enter, potentially targeting a retest of the all-time high of $121.66 set on January 29th.
A trading strategy to consider is entering a long position if price sustains a break above $92.88, with a protective stop loss placed below $92.20. Initial profit targets could be set at $95.90, $102, or $112.50, levels that previously acted as minor support or resistance on shorter timeframes earlier this year. The $109.34 level, situated just below the all-time high and aligning with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January-February range, is also noteworthy.
For traders hesitant to wait for further confirmation of the breakout, a pullback towards $86.00 may present a potential entry point. This level represents both the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January-February move and the daily high from February 11th. The 50-day moving average is another level to watch. A break below the 50-day moving average would cast doubt on the validity of the triangle breakout, likely shifting the directional bias back to neutral.
Momentum indicators are showing signs of a shift. The 14-period RSI is trending higher above the 50 level, indicating building upward momentum. The MACD has not yet confirmed this shift, though it is poised for a potential crossover above its signal line from below and is beginning to turn upwards towards positive territory. This remains a neutral signal for now, but it does warn bears that downward pressure is rapidly diminishing.