This week, most of the major broad-based indices in the A-share market closed higher. The All-A Index rose 1.70%, with the STAR 50 recording the largest gain of 6.39%. Both the CSI 1000 and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 gained more than 2%, while only the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 posted slight declines. By sector, electronics, telecommunications, and real estate led the gains, whereas petroleum, petrochemicals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fisheries, along with coal, experienced the largest losses. How will the market evolve going forward? Here are the latest views from ten major brokerages.
Where to Begin
CITIC Securities believes investors should actively seize the final offensive window of the year, advising a focus on two key directions within the technology sector. The firm notes that in the latter stages of a major industrial super-cycle, after institutional-favored stocks peak, a new high in non-institutional stocks typically follows. Given the high-interest-rate environment, market divergence may widen during this last offensive window, with AI potentially regaining dominance. The two recommended areas include new optical communication technologies, PCB, and advanced packaging—which benefit from increased manufacturing complexity—as well as wafer fabrication and gas turbines, which have clear volume growth logic. Non-institutional heavyweight stocks may offer greater upward elasticity, and the North American supply chain could be relatively advantageous in the coming period. Outside of technology, the focus remains on energy, chemicals, and leading brokerages with overseas expansion potential.
China Merchants Securities suggests that macro-level constraints are gradually easing, making a catch-up rally in technology heavyweights likely. Overseas, the Fed's September meeting delivered a 25bp rate hike to 3.75%-4.00%—the first in this easing cycle—with a hawkish dot plot implying one more hike this year. However, with the negative shock now behind us, there is a lack of major macro variables for near-term speculation. As the market becomes increasingly desensitized to macro factors and returns to industry-based pricing, constraints on the tech sector are lifting. While the US-Iran conflict remains unresolved and oil prices stay elevated, market pricing of geopolitical disruptions is becoming blunted. The firm recommends focusing on the recovery window after macro pressures subside, highlighting AI computing power chains, CPO industry chains, resource price increases, and export-oriented sectors.
Valuation Shifts Across the A-Share Market
Nanjing Securities analyzed valuation changes across major sectors. The ChiNext Board fell 0.36%, the smallest decline, while all A-shares excluding banks and oil/petrochemicals dropped 1.04%, the largest decline. The ChiNext's PE valuation premium relative to the main board rose from 2.99x on September 4 to 3.01x on September 11, below the historical average of 3.64x since its inception. The PB valuation premium increased from 3.42x to 3.44x over the same period, above the historical average of 2.84x. From a PE perspective, the CSI Telecom Components Index moved up one valuation range, while the CSI 800 Healthcare Index moved down one range. Among CITIC first-tier industries, coal, retail, consumer services, and food and beverage each moved down one valuation range. Currently, consumer services and non-bank financials show notably low valuations, with no sectors significantly overvalued. From a PB perspective, the CSI 800 Consumer Discretionary Index moved down one range.
GF Securities describes the rebound timing as perfectly opportune, stating the market has entered a new phase of "just-right rebound timing." The firm recommends prioritizing the AI industry chain with high prosperity in third-quarter earnings, as well as sub-Alpha opportunities in non-AI sectors such as pharmaceuticals, shipping, shipbuilding, and select export chain segments. Regarding dividend stocks, they still offer win probability, but the odds are less favorable than they were in June; the current cost-performance ratio has narrowed.
Shenwan Hongyuan notes that the late-September rebound window is materializing, with attention turning to computing power inflation segments where 2027 earnings growth is expected to accelerate further relative to 2026 after mid-term earnings digest valuations. Key focus areas include storage, high-end CCL, PCB, and capacitors. The current market resembles the first half of 2014—short-term adjustments with a medium-term consolidation extension. Greater emphasis should be placed on both technology and non-technology themes. The evolution of tech themes is part of the process of forging new investment mainlines for the next phase. Despite short-term headwinds, the market's exploration of AI industry progress remains insufficient, leaving room for theme rotation during the rebound phase.
Thoughts on A-Shares Before the Holiday Season
China Galaxy Securities offers an investment outlook for the A-share market. Starting next week, the market will face two consecutive holidays—Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. The cross-holiday risk premium, coupled with end-of-Q3 institutional performance assessments, may keep the market in a pattern of volatility and rotation. The firm identifies three main investment themes. First, selected technology growth: with dense industry conferences and diminishing external disruptions, focus on high-prosperity, verifiable-earnings areas such as semiconductors and advanced packaging, optical communication chains, and AI computing power. Second, policy expectations: with room for further policy easing, watch for opportunities in power grids, energy storage/power support, building materials, and construction machinery. Third, dividend anchors: given unresolved overseas high rates and energy risks, financials, utilities, and coal retain allocation value.
CICC asks what AI means for A-shares. In Q2 2026, non-financial A-share earnings growth hit a five-year high, with the AI industry chain contributing roughly half of the incremental gains—underscoring AI's high prosperity as a key driver of this year's earnings improvement. For allocation, the firm advises following a performance-first principle, selecting directions with clear prosperity trends and strong earnings certainty in both AI and non-AI fields, with emphasis on bottom-up stock and sector picking. While hardware segments of the AI chain generally exhibit strong earnings growth, internal differentiation may emerge as the industry narrative evolves. For segments with low barriers to entry and rapid capacity expansion, supply-demand pressures warrant attention, while areas with high demand certainty and hard-to-alleviate capacity bottlenecks should continue to benefit. AI infrastructure segments—including optical communications, PCB, and storage chips—maintain strong prosperity certainty this year and have repair potential after recent pullbacks. Some computing chip companies still require scrutiny regarding the alignment between fundamentals and valuations.
Sinolink Securities believes that with macro uncertainty declining, the two-month market stalemate may be broken. With market conditions far from overheating, the sustainability of the rebound is worth anticipating, and political event resolutions are unlikely to serve as the core signal for ending this rally. For tech stocks, short-term fundamental prosperity and a narrowing US Treasury yield curve provide a relatively supportive environment. However, over the medium term, unverifiable long-term narrative concerns remain, potentially acting as a drag on this rebound. Breaking previous highs may prove challenging.
Kaiyuan Securities notes that with the Fed rate hike now complete, investors should seize opportunities in technology and rebalancing. In the short term, the market is in a backdrop of "long narrative intact, new narrative not yet emerged, crowding initially eased." Active participation in the tech "rebound—high-volatility consolidation" is advisable, though responses must be more flexible than in prior trend markets. Continue capturing rebalancing opportunities from the diffusion of profit-making effects. Over the medium term, the bull market logic remains intact, but expectations for slope should be lowered. Technology remains the medium-term mainline, yet broad-based Beta gains are increasingly difficult. The next phase of returns will come more from re-selecting within the tech sector.
Xiangcai Securities observes that with the US dollar rate hike policy now implemented, most A-share indices are trending upward in a volatile fashion. On a longer horizon, 2026 marks the opening year of the "15th Five-Year Plan." The July Politburo meeting maintained proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, providing important support for stable domestic economic performance and a "slow bull" market in H2 2026. In the near term, the market formed a complex double-bottom pattern after a sharp July correction, with a relatively weak rebound. Now that the dollar rate hike policy is officially in effect, previously weak tech sectors and gold are experiencing staged rebounds. The firm recommends continued near-term focus on relatively stable dividend-related areas, as well as differentiated investment opportunities emerging within fundamentally high-prosperity AI-related sectors.