Mid-East Flares Up: Gauging Gold's Safe-Haven Strength

Deep News
Feb 28

Over the weekend, Middle East tensions escalated sharply. Investors are speculating on how gold and silver, as safe-haven assets, will react when markets open on Monday. Israel launched what it termed a "preemptive" strike against Iran. The United States subsequently confirmed its involvement in the raid targeting Tehran-related objectives. Iran swiftly retaliated, launching successive rounds of strikes against Israel and US military assets in the Middle East. In this context, market demand for precious metals as a safe haven is undoubtedly set to rise rapidly. However, since the events occurred during the weekend market closure, price movements have not yet had a chance to materialize. The Middle East is a core region for global energy and geopolitics; any escalation in conflict heightens concerns about war spillover, energy supply disruptions, and a pullback in global risk assets. Capital often flows into safe-haven assets like gold, driving a phase of price increases. Historically, gold has experienced rapid rallies in the early stages of numerous regional conflicts. Adam Button, Head of Currency Strategy at Forexlive.com, previously stated, "We go where US bombs are dropped." Earlier, when the US and Iran were exchanging strong rhetoric, Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, commented, "The situation hasn't changed and won't change near-term. Maybe the US bombs Iran soon, maybe not; maybe there's an invasion of Greenland, Mexico, even Canada, or Mars. Who knows where the next threat is aimed? Nobody knows, so the safest play is to continue buying gold." Sean Lusk, Co-Director of Commercial Hedging at Walsh Trading, noted that traders had little choice before the weekend but to position themselves in case strikes against Iran materialized. "You don't want to be short, that's the key," he said, adding that the reasons for holding gold extend far beyond Iran. "There are also large private equity deals, bankruptcies, and geopolitical risks elsewhere. There's just too much uncertainty." Lusk agreed that the recent rise in metals isn't solely due to Iran but acknowledged that if an agreement or some form of de-escalation occurs, it could trigger a limited pullback. Previously, Bernard Dahdah, Precious Metals Analyst at Natixis, indicated in a report that based on studies of historical conflicts, a further escalation in the standoff between the US government and Iran could push gold prices up by approximately 15% due to safe-haven flows. Calculated from current prices, this suggests gold could test the $5,500 to $5,800 per ounce range within two weeks of a conflict outbreak. He emphasized that most of the related gains are typically concentrated in the initial two weeks, after which prices may retreat as the market gradually digests the conflict's impact. Recent gold prices have already partially reflected some geopolitical risks. Since early February, as rhetoric from the previous US administration towards Iran grew stronger, gold gained fresh upward momentum. As of Friday, geopolitical uncertainty pushed gold to close around $5,280 per ounce, its highest level since early February. From a market perspective, most analysts remain optimistic about the performance of gold and silver. Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvi Finmart maintains a bullish outlook, targeting gold at $5,500 to $5,650 per ounce. Ajay Kedia of Kedia Commodities also expects gold to test the $5,500 per ounce level in the coming days and is similarly bullish on crude oil prices. Beyond the Middle East situation, macroeconomic supportive factors persist. Rich Checkan, President and COO of Asset Strategies International, pointed out that central banks worldwide have been buying gold at an unprecedented scale over the past four years, laying the foundation for the current market trend. He believes the US economy still exhibits multiple weaknesses, compounded by political instability in Washington, a weaker US dollar, and high public debt, creating an overall environment conducive to maintaining gold's upward trend. It is worth noting that while the sudden escalation in the Middle East provides a strong short-term catalyst for gold, and safe-haven demand may continue to push prices higher briefly, whether these gains translate into a sustained trend will depend on the evolution of the conflict and whether new capital continues to flow into the market.

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