Title

Earning Preview: Millicom International Cellular S.A. Q4 revenue is expected to increase by 4.42%, and institutional views are largely bullish

Abstract

Millicom International Cellular S.A. will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 26, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes the latest quarterly performance, the company’s current-quarter forecasts, and prevailing institutional perspectives ahead of the print.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, Millicom International Cellular S.A. projects revenue of $1.53 billion, implying year-over-year growth of 4.42%, with estimated adjusted EPS at $0.95, up 36.36% year over year, and estimated EBIT of $392.13 million, up 12.53% year over year; no explicit gross margin or net margin forecast is available in the company’s latest guidance dataset. Consensus narrative into the result centers on revenue growth resumption and EPS expansion, using the stronger prior-quarter EBIT performance as a baseline, while margin specifics remain undisclosed.

The main business remains Services, which contributed $1.34 billion in the prior quarter and is expected to underpin both top-line resilience and operating leverage in the near term. The most promising segment continues to be Services due to its scale and margin characteristics, with prior-quarter revenue of $1.34 billion; year-over-year segment growth details were not disclosed in the available data.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Millicom International Cellular S.A. delivered revenue of $1.42 billion, a gross profit margin of 77.96%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $195.00 million, a net profit margin of 13.73%, and adjusted EPS of $0.58, which represented a 93.33% year-over-year increase. Quarter over quarter, net profit attributable to the parent declined by 71.15%, but EBIT outperformed internal estimates, and EPS finished slightly below the prior estimate.

A key highlight was EBIT of $390.00 million, exceeding pre-report estimates by $50.54 million, translating to outperformance of approximately 14.89% and showcasing better-than-expected operating execution. Within the revenue mix, Services generated $1.34 billion (94.15% of quarterly revenue), while Handsets and equipment sales contributed $83.00 million (5.85%); year-over-year performance by segment was not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Services revenue and profitability dynamics

Services is the cornerstone of Millicom International Cellular S.A.’s top line and profitability, and the company’s current-quarter forecast suggests that Services should remain the principal lever behind the projected $1.53 billion in revenue and $0.95 in adjusted EPS. The step-up in forecast EPS growth of 36.36% year over year, outpacing the projected 4.42% revenue growth, implies a focus on operating leverage, cost efficiency, and mix improvements within the Services base. The prior quarter’s gross margin of 77.96% and EBIT outperformance indicate that cost controls and utilization of fixed-cost networks have been supportive, setting a constructive reference point for this quarter even though the company has not disclosed a formal margin forecast.

Within Services, pricing discipline, migrating customers to higher-value plans, and sustained demand for data-rich offerings can support ARPU and revenue stability despite broader macro headwinds. Management’s drive to monetize network assets through richer bundles and enhanced service quality typically aligns with sustainable margin profiles and smoother cash-generation patterns, which becomes increasingly relevant given the projected EPS growth outpacing revenue growth. While the company did not publish a specific gross margin or net margin target for the period, the combination of previously demonstrated cost discipline and steady revenue growth expectations supports the case for maintaining healthy profitability metrics in the quarter at hand.

The Services contribution at $1.34 billion last quarter demonstrates its scale, which provides the base for incremental margin capture when volumes or pricing shift favorably. Even modest expansion in higher-value customer cohorts can translate into notable incremental profit given the fixed cost structure of connectivity platforms. The company’s recent operational strength in EBIT relative to estimates provides additional confidence that Services will anchor both near-term earnings and free cash flow trajectories in line with the EPS forecast.

Most promising business focus: Services scale and mix quality

Among Millicom International Cellular S.A.’s lines, Services remains the most promising engine for incremental earnings and value creation in the current quarter due to its magnitude and favorable unit economics. Last quarter’s $1.34 billion in Services revenue indicates substantial headroom for operating leverage, which, when paired with disciplined commercial execution, can reinforce the company’s 36.36% EPS growth outlook for this quarter. The concentration in Services also aids predictability, as hardware sales can be more volatile, whereas Services revenue streams tend to be steadier and better aligned with contracted or recurring billing.

The company’s forecast for EBIT growth of 12.53% year over year to $392.13 million suggests a margin-supportive mix in Services, supplemented by ongoing cost optimization in network operations and support functions. That combination—scale-driven efficiencies and commercial mix upgrades—can expand contribution margins without requiring outsized revenue growth. In effect, the Services foundation enables Millicom International Cellular S.A. to translate small improvements in pricing discipline, churn reduction, and customer migration into noticeable EPS impact, consistent with the forecasted outperformance of EPS growth over revenue growth.

The halo from better-than-expected EBIT in the prior quarter supports confidence in execution, which can carry into this period as the company pursues consistent service quality and monetization metrics. With Services anchoring the result, investors are likely to evaluate whether the company can sustain sequential improvements in profitability despite lacking explicit gross or net margin targets in the disclosed outlook. The focus, therefore, naturally turns to delivery against the EPS and EBIT forecasts as validation of underlying Services momentum.

Stock price swing factors this quarter

The market is likely to concentrate on earnings translation—specifically whether the company’s forecasted 36.36% year-over-year EPS expansion materializes alongside the 4.42% revenue growth trajectory. Given the prior quarter’s EPS miss relative to internal estimates by $0.03 but a meaningful EBIT beat of approximately 14.89%, investors will scrutinize conversion from operating performance to bottom-line EPS, including any non-operating items that may have influenced the prior period. Clear commentary on the drivers behind EPS progression, including cost trends and any one-off items, will be central to the share-price reaction.

Corporate actions are another focal point for investors. In late January and early February, Millicom International Cellular S.A. announced milestones around Colombia and Chile: a successful bid for EPM’s stake in UNE on January 27, 2026, a concluded tender offer for Telefónica’s controlling stake in Colombia Telecomunicaciones S.A. E.S.P. (Coltel) on February 5, 2026, and on February 10, 2026 an announcement of a joint acquisition structure for Telefónica’s operations in Chile with NJJ (49%/51%), framed to capture strategic value while preserving balance sheet flexibility. Although these actions are subsequent to the period being reported and therefore will not impact Q4 2025 numerically, investor attention will be on management’s remarks regarding integration priorities, expected financial framing, and timelines for consolidation, as these can inform forward expectations and valuation multiples.

Balance sheet and cash flow markers will also matter. The pathway to convert EBIT strength into free cash flow, manage leverage prudently, and position for future investment is critical to sustaining the company’s earnings-multiple support. Any update on capital allocation—especially as it relates to announced transactions—can influence sentiment and the stock’s reaction. Investors will be particularly focused on whether the company’s structured approach to acquisitions, including partnering with NJJ in Chile, translates into manageable financing obligations and preserves flexibility to invest in core service quality and growth initiatives.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views have been dominant in the recent period. On January 16, 2026, UBS upgraded Millicom International Cellular S.A. to Buy from Neutral and raised the price target to $70.00, and on January 15, 2026, the stock was cited with an average rating of Overweight and a mean price target of $58.83. Within the six-month window reviewed, the ratio of bullish to bearish opinions was 2:0 among explicit rating updates and consensus snapshots, indicating a clear leaning toward a constructive stance.

The bullish camp points to several reinforcing factors when set against the company’s current-quarter forecasts. First, the alignment of a 36.36% year-over-year EPS growth estimate with a 12.53% EBIT growth estimate suggests that operating leverage and cost controls are gaining traction—this underpins the logic of higher targets from supportive institutions. Second, the prior quarter’s EBIT beat by approximately 14.89% provides evidence of operational momentum that can persist into this reporting cycle, even as EPS in that period was slightly below the internal estimate. Third, the recent announcements around Colombia and Chile—where Millicom International Cellular S.A. concluded the tender offer for Telefónica’s controlling stake in Coltel and agreed to a joint acquisition structure for Telefónica’s operations in Chile with NJJ—signal a disciplined approach to expansion and balance sheet stewardship, which can improve medium-term earnings visibility and strategic optionality.

UBS’s upgrade and raised target price are consistent with the thesis that earnings quality and cash generation can improve as the company executes on its operating plan while structuring external growth to mitigate balance sheet strain. The Overweight consensus and mean target price of $58.83 imply expectations of further appreciation from current trading levels observed during the period of commentary, contingent on the company meeting or exceeding its revenue and EPS guidance. Should management deliver revenue near $1.53 billion and EPS around $0.95 with clear commentary on margin durability and integration roadmaps for recent transactions, the bullish positioning would likely be reinforced.

The positive stance also reflects confidence in Services as the underpinning of both top-line and profit growth. Analysts leaning constructive typically accept that smaller, more transactional lines like handset and equipment sales are less material to valuation and instead focus on the larger recurring-revenue engine. In this context, achieving the forecasted EBIT of $392.13 million and translating it to the projected EPS would be interpreted as confirmation that execution is tracking the playbook that underlies the upgraded ratings and higher price targets.

In summary, institutional sentiment entering the print is largely aligned with a constructive narrative: moderate revenue growth, stronger EPS expansion, and evidence that prior quarter operating outperformance can be sustained. The balance of commentary is firmly in the bullish category, and the investment community appears prepared to reward clear delivery on the company’s revenue and earnings forecasts and transparent framing of the financial impact and timeline of its recently announced corporate actions.