Against the backdrop of ongoing instability in the Middle East, China's imports of crude oil and refined petroleum products saw significant growth in January and February, while imports of copper and natural gas declined noticeably due to price and demand factors. Exports of key minerals rose substantially, with rare earth exports surging by 23%.

Data released by the General Administration of Customs on Tuesday, March 10, showed that in yuan terms, China's imports in February increased by 10.9% year-on-year, while exports grew by 36.1% year-on-year.

In terms of commodity exports, rare earth exports surged, with January-February exports jumping 23% year-on-year. Exports of aluminum products increased year-on-year, while iron ore imports in the first two months rose by 10% year-on-year. Steel exports, however, fell by 8.1% year-on-year during the same period.

Regarding commodity imports, crude oil and refined oil products achieved year-on-year growth, while steel and copper imports dropped significantly. Crude oil imports in February increased by 12.54% year-on-year, and imports for the first two months hit a record high for the period. Iron ore imports in the first two months also grew by 10% year-on-year. In contrast, copper imports plummeted, falling 16.1% year-on-year for January-February, with a sharp decline of 24.81% year-on-year in February alone. Steel imports for January-February dropped by 21.7% year-on-year.

Rare earth exports surged significantly.

Rare earth exports in the first two months grew 23% year-on-year, reaching 10,468.3 tons. This figure continues the strong momentum seen throughout 2025, during which China's rare earth exports had already reached their highest level since at least 2014.

Apart from rare earths, aluminum exports also remained robust. Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in the first two months totaled 970,600 tons, up 12.8% year-on-year.

Energy imports rebounded, with crude oil, refined oil products, and iron ore all posting growth.

In volume terms, February saw increases in imports of crude oil, refined oil products, iron ore, integrated circuits, and soybeans, while imports of steel, natural gas, and lignite declined.

In the first two months of the year, China's crude oil imports surged 15.8% year-on-year to 96.93 million tons, setting a new record for the period. Analysis suggests that strategic crude oil reserves currently stand at approximately 1.4 billion barrels (around 190 million tons), sufficient to cover a six-month shortfall even if all imports from the Middle East were cut off.

Imports of refined oil products also rose sharply, with cumulative imports in the first two months reaching 9.032 million tons, a 43.3% year-on-year increase.

Amid the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, international oil prices approached $120 per barrel on Monday. Analysts believe that substantial reserves could serve as a buffer against the dual pressures of Middle East production cuts and trade disruptions.

Iron ore imports also increased, with January-February imports up 10% year-on-year to 210.2 million tons, higher than the 191.4 million tons recorded in the same period last year. Alexis Ellender, an analyst at ship-tracking firm Kpler, noted that the growth was primarily driven by strong Australian exports in December last year—due to fewer weather disruptions compared to the previous year—as well as improved domestic demand.

In contrast, copper imports fell 16.1% year-on-year, and natural gas imports edged down 1.1%, reflecting structural divergence on the demand side.

Copper imports in the first two months dropped 16.1% year-on-year to 699,600 tons, as soaring copper prices reaching record highs deterred buyers. However, imports of copper concentrate grew 4.9% to 4.933 million tons to meet smelters' record output demands, creating a stark divergence.

Natural gas imports dipped slightly by 1.1% to 20.016 million tons. Weak industrial electricity demand during the Lunar New Year holiday suppressed seaborne imports, while domestic production and record pipeline gas supplies from Russia offered more price-competitive alternative sources.

Soybean imports in the first two months fell 7.8% year-on-year, despite an increase in shipments from the United States following the trade truce last October.