This year's National Day holiday coincides with the Mid-Autumn Festival, creating an 8-day "super long golden week." Recent observations from multiple online travel platforms and offline travel agency stores indicate that bookings for the "October 1st" holiday period are climbing steadily, with popular tourism routes experiencing explosive booking demand and some products already sold out in advance.
Su Shang Bank's special researcher Fu Yifu noted in an interview that this year's "October 1st" golden week tourism consumption market will exhibit the following distinct characteristics: "First, people are making travel plans earlier than in previous years and tend to choose domestic long-distance travel products; second, a diversified consumption pattern is gradually forming, with deep experience tours, themed customized tours, and cultural exploration tours emerging to meet consumers' diverse needs."
According to the latest "World Tourism Barometer" released by the United Nations World Tourism Organization on the 9th, global international tourist arrivals increased by 5% year-over-year in the first half of 2025. Statistical data provided by this UN agency shows that approximately 690 million people traveled internationally in the first half of this year, an increase of about 33 million compared to the same period last year. The Asia-Pacific region saw overall growth of 11%, with Spain's international tourist arrivals ranking among the top in terms of growth rate.
The report also revised 2024 international tourist arrival data, confirming levels slightly above those of 2019, indicating that the international tourism industry recovered last year. The organization expects that despite ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, international tourist arrivals for the full year are still expected to grow 3% to 5%, with global tourism demand maintaining overall resilience.
Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that China's inbound tourism retail market is expected to grow more than threefold over the next 10 years, from $14 billion in 2024 to $60 billion in 2034, with its share of China's overall tourism retail market rising from 10% to 25%. The key driving factors are the increasing number of globally renowned brands and continuously optimized shopping experiences.
Morgan Stanley pointed out that China's leading consumer electronics products and the global rise of brands like Pop Mart will attract tourists to China and stimulate shopping demand. Additionally, Chinese products have internationally competitive pricing. Furthermore, policy support is expected to promote duty-free and tax refund shopping, optimizing the shopping experience. Retailers, shopping centers, and duty-free operators within China will benefit the most.
Tourism-related Hong Kong stocks:
OTA Travel Platforms: TRIP.COM-S (09961), TONGCHENGTRAVEL (00780)
Tourism Industry Chain: Macau sector, Hong Kong Chinese Travel (00308), China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (01880), Huazhu Group-S (01179)