In anticipation of this year's "Double Eleven" shopping festival, Goldman Sachs analyst Ronald Keung released an updated consumer status observation report on October 21, 2025. The report centers on five key observations: the longest event cycle in history, the widespread adoption of AI tools, strong initial sales performance, the impact of a new round of subsidy policies, and ongoing competition in the instant retail sector.
Historically Early and Extended "Double Eleven" to Seize the Advantage This year, major platforms have notably advanced the start of the "Double Eleven" promotions. Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin kicked off their activities on October 15, October 9, and October 9, respectively, marking the earliest launch on record and extending the entire shopping festival cycle to 31-57 days. Goldman Sachs points out that this strategy will significantly shift consumer demand forward into October. Therefore, investors should not view November data in isolation, but rather combine retail data from October and November for a more accurate overall analysis.
AI Empowerment: New Highlights in Efficiency and Conversion Rates One of the most striking changes for this year's "Double Eleven" is the extensive integration of AI technology. From consumers to merchants, AI tools are reshaping the e-commerce ecosystem. Major platforms are launching various AI features based on large language models (LLMs) covering search, recommendations, customer service, and content generation.
Goldman Sachs reveals AI's driving force with detailed data: Alibaba has announced the full rollout of AI capabilities, with six newly introduced AI tools significantly improving click-through rates (+10% total clicks in recommendations) and merchant ROI (+12%). The algorithm has enhanced purchasing efficiency by 25% by extending user behavior analysis from 0.5 years to 10 years, while increasing processing instances from 1,000 to 100,000. Additionally, AI customer service has been adopted by 1.58 million merchants, saving an average of 20 million RMB in costs per day.
The report also notes that Douyin is achieving an in-app transaction closed loop through its "Dou Bao" chatbot, while JD.com is optimizing merchant experiences using its "Yanxi" AI platform. AI has transformed from a mere concept into a tangible engine driving growth and efficiency improvements.
Strong Initial Sales: Watch Out for High Baselines and Subsidy Effects Although the initial sales data reported by various platforms has shown strength, with several brands surpassing 100 million RMB in sales during the first hour—a year-on-year increase of over double—Goldman Sachs cautions investors to consider the underlying complexities. On one hand, this year's early sales launch versus last year's later start creates an "incomparable" benchmark, which inflates the year-on-year data. On the other hand, while the fourth round of national subsidies has been launched, its scale (69 billion RMB) is down from the previous year (150 billion RMB), leading to signs of slowed growth in categories like home appliances due to last year's high baseline effect.
Overall, this year's "Double Eleven" showcases new characteristics in timing, technology application, and competitive strategies. Despite certain challenges posed by the macro environment and high base effects, the scaled application of AI technology offers e-commerce platforms new possibilities for tapping into existing demand and enhancing efficiency. This event not only represents a consumer feast but also serves as a concentrated review of the commercialization of technology.