Abstract

Toronto-Dominion Bank will release its quarterly results on February 26, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes consensus expectations for revenue and EPS, last quarter’s performance, key business dynamics, and prevailing analyst opinions ahead of the print.

Market Forecast

For the upcoming quarter, Toronto-Dominion Bank’s management-facing forecasts indicate total revenue of $14.55 billion (up 6.91% year over year), EBIT of $6.01 billion (up 15.44% year over year), and adjusted EPS of $2.26 (up 15.78% year over year). Forecast data for gross margin and net margin were not provided and are therefore omitted.

Management highlights suggest stable performance across core retail banking and fee-based businesses, with incremental contribution expected from wealth and insurance. Among segments, wealth management and insurance stands out as the most promising, supported by a diversified fee base and sensitivity to market volumes; however, specific year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Toronto-Dominion Bank delivered revenue of $14.43 billion (down 7.01% year over year), GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $3.28 billion, net profit margin of 22.60%, and adjusted EPS of $2.18 (up 26.74% year over year); gross margin was not disclosed.

A key operational highlight was the strong adjusted profitability, with EBIT of $5.89 billion rising 15.41% year over year and adjusted EPS outpacing revenue contraction, pointing to disciplined expense control and mix support. By business line, last quarter’s revenue mix comprised Canada Personal and Commercial Banking at $20.69 billion, Wealth Management and Insurance at $14.56 billion, U.S. Retail at $12.31 billion, Corporate at $11.83 billion, and Wholesale Banking at $8.39 billion; year-over-year growth rates by segment were not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core Retail Banking

Core retail banking remains the economic anchor for Toronto-Dominion Bank, spanning Canada Personal and Commercial Banking and U.S. Retail. The company’s forecasted revenue of $14.55 billion alongside an expected adjusted EPS of $2.26 implies continued operating leverage despite credit normalization. A 6.91% year-over-year revenue growth forecast, if achieved, would mark a turnaround from the prior quarter’s revenue decline, indicating stabilizing spread income and resilient fee generation. In Canada, loan growth typically trends modestly with an emphasis on prime consumer credit quality, while deposit mix influences funding costs and supports net interest performance. In the U.S., deposit betas and competitive pricing shape near-term margin dynamics; prudently managed loan repricing combined with disciplined deposit strategies could cushion net interest margin pressure. The prior quarter’s 22.60% net profit margin offers a reference point for profitability resilience, but with rate volatility persisting, the bank’s expense discipline and credit provisioning will be central to sustaining EPS momentum.

Wealth Management and Insurance

Wealth management and insurance is poised as the most promising growth contributor this quarter, as it benefits from equity market stability, higher client engagement, and recurring fee streams. The previous period’s significant revenue base in this segment indicates scale benefits, while the forecasted EPS growth of 15.78% and EBIT growth of 15.44% underscore operating leverage potential when market-sensitive fees are rising and insurance underwriting is stable. Asset flows and advisory momentum tend to pick up with constructive market breadth, improving fee capture and cross-sell opportunities across the broader client base. Insurance operations typically add steadier earnings, helping smooth quarterly volatility from spread-driven businesses. While the company did not disclose explicit year-over-year growth for the segment, the aggregate forecast trajectory suggests that wealth and insurance should maintain a favorable mix effect in consolidated profitability.

Wholesale and Capital Markets

Wholesale banking and capital markets will likely be a swing factor for quarterly results, influenced by primary issuance calendars, trading volumes, and client risk appetite. If market conditions remain constructive, investment banking fees, sales and trading, and treasury-related activities can offer upside to revenue beyond the baseline forecast. Conversely, any episodic market dislocation or rate-driven volatility could pressure results through slower origination or mark-to-market effects. The bank’s prior-quarter EBIT growth and stronger adjusted EPS despite revenue contraction point to controlled risk and operating efficiency, which should help the wholesale unit navigate variability. As investors assess the quarter, the breadth of fee revenue across advisory, underwriting, and fixed income/equities trading will be important for the earnings mix, especially if spread income proves more subdued than expected.

Credit Quality and Provisions

Expected credit loss provisions remain a key determinant for earnings predictability, particularly in a cycle where consumer delinquencies and commercial credit migration may trend higher from historically benign levels. The ability to maintain a stable net profit margin near prior-quarter levels will hinge on whether provisions track closer to normalized ranges without outsized formation in vulnerable portfolios. Management’s forecast for double-digit growth in EBIT and EPS implies confidence in risk costs remaining within a manageable band, but the market will scrutinize any changes in Stage 2/Stage 3 balances and coverage. If credit metrics hold broadly stable, valuation sensitivity should tilt toward core operating performance rather than loss expectations, allowing the market to focus on fee trends and margin stability.

Expenses and Efficiency

Cost control is likely to remain a supportive theme given last quarter’s adjusted EPS outperformance despite a revenue decline, reflecting operational rigor. Efficiency initiatives, including technology investments and process optimization, can enhance scalability in advisory and distribution while tempering run-rate expenses. The degree to which the bank can convert forecasted revenue growth into incremental margin will influence the sustainability of the EPS trajectory into forthcoming periods. Investors should note whether efficiency ratios improve sequentially and whether expense growth lags revenue growth, which would validate the operating leverage implied in the EBIT forecast.

Capital, Liquidity, and Shareholder Returns

Capital strength and liquidity buffers will frame the outlook for buybacks and dividend consistency, reinforcing investor confidence in earnings quality. If earnings progress aligns with forecasted double-digit EPS growth, capital generation could support measured capital deployment without compromising regulatory ratios. Stability in funding costs, particularly the deposit mix between non-interest-bearing and interest-bearing balances, will shape margin durability and influence the pace of shareholder returns. Any commentary on capital priorities, including organic investments in U.S. retail expansion or technology platforms, will be weighed against the appetite for returning capital to shareholders.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The stock’s reaction is likely to be most sensitive to three elements: evidence that revenue has re-accelerated consistent with the 6.91% growth forecast, confirmation that credit provisions are normalized and not escalating, and indications that fee-centric businesses are adding mix support to margins. Delivery near the $6.01 billion EBIT forecast would reinforce the view that expense control and operating efficiency remain intact. Clear signals of deposit stability and disciplined loan pricing will further validate margin resilience in a mixed rate environment and support the implied 15.78% adjusted EPS growth outlook.

Analyst Opinions

Analyst chatter around Toronto-Dominion Bank this season reflects a majority tilt toward a supportive stance on near-term earnings stabilization, with commentary emphasizing the prospect of revenue re-acceleration and improved operating leverage compared with the previous quarter’s headline revenue contraction. The prevailing view anticipates that fee-rich businesses, including wealth and insurance, should help offset any residual net interest margin headwinds, while disciplined risk management contains provision volatility. Major institutions that are constructive on the setup point to the forecast of 6.91% revenue growth and 15.78% EPS growth as reasonable baselines rather than stretch targets, particularly if capital markets conditions remain cooperative and deposit costs stabilize. The majority interpretation frames the upcoming print as a test of sustained operating discipline and segment diversification: if the bank delivers close to the $14.55 billion revenue and $2.26 EPS figures, markets may credit the company with improved earnings visibility heading into subsequent quarters.