Abstract

Coca-Cola will release its Q4 FY2025 earnings on October 21, 2025 Pre-Market, with investors watching revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS for confirmation of resilient consumer demand and pricing power.

Market Forecast

Consensus and company guidance point to Q4 FY2025 revenue of $12.01 billion, with EBIT estimated at $3.01 billion and adjusted EPS at $0.56, implying year-over-year increases of 12.47%, 17.59%, and 8.68%, respectively. The company’s outlook implicitly suggests stable gross profit margin near recent levels and a healthy net profit conversion driven by mix and productivity, though formal margin targets were not disclosed. The main business mix remains anchored by concentrate sales and finished products, with concentrate leading growth and mix benefits into gross margin and EPS. The most promising segment is concentrates, expected to sustain pricing-led momentum; last quarter it generated $8.20 billion with continued YoY growth, while finished products contributed $4.26 billion.

Last Quarter Review

In Q3 FY2025, Coca-Cola reported revenue of $12.41 billion, a gross profit margin of 61.49%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $3.70 billion, a net profit margin of 29.67%, and adjusted EPS of $0.82, with revenue and adjusted EPS both posting year-over-year gains of 3.88% and 6.49%, respectively. A notable highlight was net profit resilience despite mixed macro signals, with margin strength supported by favorable geographic and product mix. Main business highlights included concentrate products revenue of $8.20 billion and finished products revenue of $4.26 billion, underscoring concentrate-led profitability and brand investment support across categories.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Concentrate Sales and Finished Products

Coca-Cola’s primary revenue drivers are its concentrate operations and finished beverages portfolio. The concentrate model typically delivers higher margins due to the company’s franchise structure, and recent pricing initiatives have sustained gross margin near 61.49%. In Q4 FY2025, concentrate volume stability combined with selective pricing should underpin revenue growth and support EBIT leverage, while finished products benefit from brand activation and multipack formats in key markets. The mix between concentrate and finished products has implications for margin trajectory; with concentrate at $8.20 billion last quarter versus $4.26 billion for finished products, continued concentrate momentum is expected to maintain a favorable margin profile.

Most Promising Business: Concentrates

Concentrates appear poised to contribute the largest incremental margin dollars in Q4 FY2025. The segment’s pricing framework, coupled with bottler execution, has historically translated into robust EBIT and EPS conversion. As the company focuses on zero-sugar colas, sparkling flavors, and premium dairy adjacencies through system collaboration, concentrates should capitalize on franchise-level marketing and distribution scale. Given last quarter’s $8.20 billion in concentrate revenue and observed pricing-led gains, sustained year-over-year growth in Q4 would likely be the linchpin for maintaining the estimated 17.59% EBIT uplift and the 8.68% EPS increase.

Factors Most Impacting the Stock Price This Quarter

Three variables stand out for near-term share price reaction. First, revenue growth cadence versus the $12.01 billion estimate will set the tone; a close match or beat would validate momentum heading into FY2026. Second, margin performance relative to the prior-quarter gross margin of 61.49% and net profit margin of 29.67% will influence sentiment around pricing power and mix, with any deterioration scrutinized for sustainability of EPS growth. Third, adjusted EPS delivery against the $0.56 estimate will be interpreted through the lens of cost productivity programs and discrete items; a clean EPS beat would underscore operational execution and franchise health.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional commentary leans constructive, with a majority highlighting resilient demand in zero-sugar offerings, steady international volume, and positive pricing/mix dynamics that support margin and EPS delivery. Analysts point to Coca-Cola’s ability to navigate cautious consumer spending while preserving brand equity and promotional effectiveness, framing the Q4 setup as favorable for a modest beat on revenue or EPS. Well-followed institutions emphasize the combination of disciplined pricing and product innovation as underpinning the EBIT estimate of $3.01 billion and supporting the $0.56 EPS forecast, while noting that any variance in gross margin will primarily hinge on geographic mix and channel dynamics. The prevailing view anticipates in-line to modestly better performance, setting expectations for continued stability into the next fiscal year.