Spot gold traded around the 4600 mark on Thursday, August 28, with prices briefly surging to a session high of $4,643.18 per ounce before pulling back to a low of $4,565.67 and eventually settling at $4,600.78, marking a modest gain of roughly 0.14%. This followed a sharp 1.4% decline the previous day, which represented the largest single-session drop in a week. While this might appear to be routine volatility within a high-level consolidation range, the underlying forces reflect a complex interplay of a stronger-then-softer US dollar, expectations surrounding US Treasury buybacks, persistent inflation stickiness, and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory. Market attention is heavily focused on Friday's Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Warsh is set to deliver his first major public address.
From a technical standpoint, the daily chart shows gold pulling back from elevated levels, with the upward momentum from earlier sessions visibly losing steam as evidenced by a long upper wick on the daily candlestick. The MACD histogram has contracted significantly, while the RSI has retreated from overbought territory back into neutral ground, highlighting an immediate need for corrective consolidation. However, medium-to-long-term moving averages remain tilted upward, suggesting the broader bullish structure has not been completely compromised. On the four-hour timeframe, prices are trading below the short-term moving averages, with bulls and bears locked in a back-and-forth tug-of-war that lacks clear directional conviction, requiring fresh fundamental catalysts to break the prevailing range.
Key levels to monitor: resistance at 4,612 and 4,642, with support at 4,562 and 4,525. For longer-term positioning, buying on pullbacks toward the 4,567/4,557 area and selling on rallies to 4,600/4,610 are suggested, targeting gains or declines of 20 to 50 points. Note that the pivotal level for gold stands at $4,611 per ounce. These views represent personal opinions only and do not constitute investment advice.
WTI crude oil is trading near $83.60 per barrel, with geopolitical tensions resurging after former President Trump indicated no intention to revive the terms of the memorandum of understanding reached with Iran in June, prompting investors to temper expectations for Middle East diplomatic breakthroughs and increased oil supply. Trump has also explicitly stated he is not seeking engagement with Tehran. On the technical side, the daily chart shows oil completing a corrective phase and bouncing, with short-term moving averages turning upward, though significant resistance at prior highs remains intact, preventing a fresh upside breakout. The MACD histogram has expanded slightly, while the RSI has returned to neutral, suggesting a relatively balanced tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.
On the four-hour chart, prices continue to oscillate within a defined range without establishing a clear trend, awaiting news-driven catalysts to resolve the current consolidation. Regarding key price points, WTI crude's immediate support sits at $82.40, with stronger support at $81.80, while initial resistance is at $84.40 and medium-term resistance at $85.30. A decisive break below $81.80 would open the door for a deeper correction, whereas a sustained move above $85.30 would be required to resume the uptrend. Key levels: resistance at 84.5 and 85.3, with support at 81.7 and 80.5. For short-term trading, buying on dips near $81.90 plus or minus 0.2 and selling on rallies around $83.90 plus or minus 0.2 are suggested, targeting moves of 2.0 to 3.0 per barrel.
This content is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should act at their own risk based on their individual circumstances.