When Will the Net Interest Margin Turnaround Occur? ICBC: Net Interest Income Expected to Stabilize Next Year, NIM to Gradually Reach Inflection Point, Though Lagging Behind Loan-Deposit Spread

Deep News
Oct 30

On October 30, ICBC held its Q3 2025 earnings briefing. Regarding net interest margin (NIM), ICBC executives noted that while NIM remains on a downward trend, signs of stabilization have emerged. In the first three quarters, ICBC's NIM stood at 1.28%, down 14 basis points (BP) year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 4 BP. Full-year NIM is projected to stabilize around 1.26%, supported by four key factors:

1. **Controllable Impact of Monetary Policy Adjustments**: The 10-BP cut in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in May was accompanied by coordinated deposit rate adjustments, effectively mitigating NIM pressure. 2. **Optimized Asset Allocation Driving Pricing Improvements**: Credit resources were strategically allocated to key sectors outlined in the "Five Financial Priorities," with new RMB loan rates averaging 2.78%, outperforming peers. 3. **Effective Liability Cost Management**: The interest payout rate for RMB deposits dropped 35 BP year-on-year to 1.32%, helping narrow the NIM decline. 4. **Enhanced Long-Term Profitability via Balance Sheet Optimization**: ICBC increased its bond investment share to 28.4% of interest-bearing assets (up from 22.4% in 2019), bolstering profitability in a low-rate environment.

On the timing of a NIM turnaround, ICBC executives stated that, barring major policy rate shifts, net interest income is expected to stabilize in 2024, with NIM gradually reaching an inflection point—though this will lag behind the loan-deposit spread turnaround. Key rationale includes: - Regulatory focus on narrowing NIM, with the PBOC emphasizing balancing economic support and financial sector health, prompting stricter deposit-loan rate management. - Marginal improvements in ICBC’s NIM decline, as deposit repricing nears completion and liability costs ease further. Active asset restructuring, including higher bond allocations, supports stable mid-to-long-term profitability.

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