全球金融市场正因美国政策变动掀起波澜。特朗普总统对俄实施的50天期限关税威胁虽暂时缓解能源供应中断担忧,荷兰天然气期货应声下跌1.5%至35.30欧元/兆瓦时,但挪威八月季节性维护与亚洲高温导致的LNG需求激增,仍使欧洲冬季储气计划承压。
汇率市场暗流涌动,欧元兑美元反弹0.2%至1.1685,脱离周一触及的三周低点。ING分析师警示,若美欧贸易谈判未能将30%汽车关税降至预期10%,欧元区将面临重大考验。随着8月1日关税生效日临近,市场波动或将加剧。
个股方面呈现冰火两重天:英伟达因获对华销售H20芯片许可,盘前大涨4.5%至171.51美元;爱立信却因三季度营收预警下跌3.5%。大宗商品领域,伦敦期铜跌至9616美元/吨,COMEX仓库铜库存激增显示贸易商正抢在关税生效前囤货。黄金则逆势上涨0.4%至3371.50美元/盎司,避险需求推升贵金属价格。
宏观层面阴云笼罩。穆迪分析警告,贸易政策不确定性可能将2025年全球增速压至略超2%。JP摩根指出,即将公布的6月通胀与零售数据,将揭示关税对消费端的实质冲击。比特币在创123153美元新高后回落2.8%,反映风险资产的剧烈震荡。
值得注意的是,英国富时100指数历史性突破9000点大关,消费信贷巨头Experian强劲财报抵消了房产股Barratt Redrow近9%的暴跌。原油市场则因俄罗斯700万桶/日出口量可能受扰,布伦特原油跌破70美元关口。
市场参与者正紧盯三个关键时点:1230GMT美国通胀数据、1255GMT红皮书零售指数,以及8月1日关税生效倒计时。分析师普遍认为,政策不确定性已导致企业推迟投资决策,这可能转化为更广泛的经济降温。
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