U.S. stocks edged higher on Thursday, buoyed by a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which further lifted market sentiment. Investors also digested a mix of economic data and corporate earnings reports. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 115 points, or 0.24%, to 48,578.72. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.36% to 24,102.70, and the S&P 500 added 0.26% to 7,041.28. Notably, the Nasdaq secured its 12th consecutive day of gains, marking its longest winning streak since 2009.
Regarding the Middle East situation, the U.S. President announced that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire—a move that could pave the way for a broader peace agreement in the region. According to a report, the President also stated that the next round of talks between the U.S. and Iran could occur this weekend. Earlier in the week, he remarked that the war with Iran was "very close to an end" and claimed Tehran was "eager to reach a deal."
Even if a U.S.-Iran peace deal is reached in the short term, as markets expect, the potential impact of the war on the U.S. economy could still cause volatility. "We will have to go through a few quarters of subpar GDP performance. Everyone is waiting for the U.S.-Iran issue to resolve itself, which is a significant positive, but with current economic growth at 2%, we might see a few quarters below that level," said Rob Williams, Chief Investment Strategist at Sage Advisory.
Dragged down by the Middle East conflict, U.S. stocks fell sharply in March. However, on renewed peace hopes, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have staged a strong rebound. "The war remains the primary driver for markets. After hitting new record highs like yesterday, it's normal for the market to stall here and potentially pull back to retest support," said Robert Phipps, Director at Per Stirling Capital Management. "The market was previously oversold and has rebounded powerfully, no longer in an oversold condition. This rally might be over, and the market needs to return to trading on its own fundamentals."
Although diplomatic progress this week boosted sentiment, some argue that clearer signals of peace are needed to sustain the gains. "It's hard to understand why investors are so optimistic. The economic data doesn't support such high enthusiasm," said Melissa Brown, Managing Director of Investment Decision Research at investment management firm SimCorp.
Medium and long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose during the session. The benchmark 10-year yield increased by 2.38 basis points to 4.307%, while the more rate-sensitive 2-year yield climbed 1.23 basis points to 3.773%.
On the economic data front, the U.S. Labor Department reported that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims fell by 11,000 to 207,000 for the week ending April 11. So far this year, initial claims have remained at the low end of the 201,000 to 230,000 range. Although layoffs remain low, the war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran may be hindering hiring. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report released Wednesday indicated that "several districts reported increased demand for temporary or contract workers, as businesses remain cautious about committing to permanent hiring."
U.S. industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.5% in March, against expectations for a 0.1% increase. Oxford Economics stated in a research note that it is too early to blame the decline on the Middle East conflict, attributing it mainly to "sharp declines" in mining and utilities output.
Major tech stocks were mixed. Microsoft rose 2.20%, Meta gained 0.79%, and Amazon advanced 0.48%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.02%, hitting a record high for the seventh consecutive session.
In individual stocks,
PepsiCo gained 2.28% after first-quarter revenue grew 8.5% year-over-year to $194.4 billion, with core EPS of $1.61, both exceeding market expectations.
IBM rose 2.53%. Oppenheimer noted in a report that driven by strong software growth and the early completion of its acquisition, the tech giant's first-quarter results could surpass Wall Street expectations, and it may raise its revenue guidance.
Abbott dropped over 6%, hitting its lowest level since November 2023. The healthcare company lowered its full-year profit forecast to reflect the impact of its acquisition of cancer diagnostics firm Exact Sciences.
Charles Schwab fell 7.6%. The broker's first-quarter results improved year-over-year, but revenue missed Wall Street estimates.
The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index advanced 1.74%. Alibaba and Baidu each rose over 3%, NetEase gained 2.17%, Pinduoduo added 1.71%, while JD.com dipped 0.44%.
International oil prices surged over 4% during the session, with Brent crude briefly approaching the $100 per barrel mark. D.A. Davidson wrote in a report that markets doubt shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will ease soon. WTI crude for May delivery settled $3.40 higher, up 3.72%, at $94.69 per barrel. Brent crude for June delivery rose 3.39% to settle at $99.39 per barrel.
Precious metals saw a pullback. COMEX gold for June delivery fell 0.30% to $4,809.32 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures declined 1.51% to $78.43 per ounce.