Workers are transporting freshly picked lemons in the orchards of Maoshi Village, Tongxian Town, Anyue County.

In late September this year, the topic "MIXUE GROUP lemon drinks out of stock" surged to trending status, with one reason being lemon shortages. In early October, fresh lemons in Anyue County, Ziyang City began ripening and harvesting commenced. Based on weather conditions and lemon growth factors, Anyue lemons are expected to enter concentrated market supply in November.

With fresh lemons hitting the market, how are this year's market conditions? Media reporters recently visited Anyue County's lemon orchards to investigate.

**2024 Data:** - Anyue County lemon cultivation: 480,000 acres - Output: 580,000 tons - National market share: 80% - Self-operated export value: nearly 180 million yuan, sold to over 30 countries and regions - Awarded honors including China Famous Fruit and International Fruit Expo Gold Award

**2025 Projections:** - Fresh lemon output per acre: over 4,000 jin - Farm gate price: around 5 yuan per jin - Anyue lemon geographical brand value: 19.2 billion yuan - Ranking fourth nationally and first in Sichuan among fruit geographical brands

**Visiting Orchards for Harvest Season** **Doubled Per-Acre Yield, Farm Gate Prices Up Five to Six Times**

This year's lemons are extremely popular. After three days of fresh fruit harvesting, Chen Yue, Chairman and General Manager of Sichuan Forun Agricultural Development Co., Ltd., hasn't needed to use cold storage - a first in his 12-year lemon growing career. Chen Yue said orders from milk tea chain stores in Chengdu and other cities were signed two to three months ago. Since harvesting began on October 10, buyers call four to five times daily demanding "quick delivery."

Recent continuous rainy weather lasting nearly a month has delayed Anyue lemon market entry by about a week compared to previous years. However, this has helped stabilize prices. Currently, ordinary lemons fetch around 5 yuan per jin at farm gates - over six times the price two years ago and nearly five times last year's price.

This sudden fortune has left growers both happy and bewildered. "Come on, let me show you around," said Chen Yue on the morning of October 12, jumping into his SUV to tour the orchards with reporters.

The orchard is located in Tongxian Town, Anyue County, spanning three natural villages including Maoshi Village, covering 1,200 acres total. Despite winding mountain roads, Chen Yue appeared relaxed: based on yield estimates, this year's fresh lemon output per acre exceeds 4,000 jin. At current prices, per-acre value reaches at least 20,000 yuan. Last year, per-acre yield was only 2,000 jin with farm gate prices at 1 yuan per jin - less than one-tenth of this year's value.

"Two and a half to four liang in weight - test by hand, pick when it feels right," Chen Yue's relaxed demeanor disappeared at the picking site. He explained that this year, one fresh lemon can sell for one to two yuan.

With this year's abundant harvest, Chen Yue hired over 40 workers on the first picking day - matching peak season employment from last year. The first three days averaged over 80,000 jin of fruit picked daily.

How to better harvest fruit also troubles Wang Quan, a grower in Qianlong Town, Anyue County. His 9-acre orchard expects 200,000 yuan in output value. Considering his poor health, Wang called his son back from temporary work elsewhere in late September. However, on October 12, the orchard's opening day, his son's performance frustrated Wang.

"Why can't you learn?" Wang snatched his son's basket and began lecturing: some fruits, though yellow, weigh only over one liang with mediocre flesh and juice quality, selling for at most 4 yuan per jin - "might not have sold two years ago." If left to grow a few more weeks, one fruit could weigh three liang, selling for five to six yuan per jin.

Based on current growth patterns, concentrated fresh lemon market supply will occur in late October or early November, with orchard clearing possibly delayed until mid-to-late December. Wang said if his son can't master the technique quickly, he'll consider hiring workers.

"If hiring help, do it quickly," said Wang Hua, whose orchard neighbors Wang Quan's. Local workers commonly use bamboo baskets holding 40 jin each for fresh fruit picking. Currently, picking one basket costs 5 yuan in labor - 20% higher than last year. "At this rate, prices will keep rising."

**Domestic and International Market Outlook** **Lemons Still in Seller's Market, High Prices May Continue**

How long can high prices be maintained? "Current levels should basically hold steady," said Liao Huajian, Party Secretary of Anyue County Modern Agriculture Industrial Park Management Committee. Previous years showed a "smile curve" pricing pattern - higher opening prices, slightly lower during peak production, then rising again at season's end. This year's curve may flatten.

The first reason is the shift in international and domestic supply-demand relationships, maintaining the lemon industry's overall seller's market structure.

As the province's first fresh fruit with export value exceeding 100 million yuan, Anyue lemon prices are deeply influenced by international markets. This year, global lemon production areas along the Mediterranean suffered extreme heat and drought, creating international supply shortages.

Domestically, downstream lemon product consumption is rapidly rising. Leaders from multiple Chengdu milk tea shops explained that lemon water, the cheapest single item in tea shops, is young people's favorite "super product," called working people's "life-sustaining water," often accounting for over one-tenth of store sales. Data shows that in just the first three quarters of 2024, MIXUE GROUP's lemon water sales reached 1.1 billion cups - 100 million more than the entire previous year.

The second reason is that after Anyue's planting method transformation, current fresh fruit total output isn't particularly high.

As the province's second-largest grain-producing county and important carrier of the new era's higher-level "Tianfu Granary," Anyue County has vigorously promoted "lemons up the mountain" to free farmland for grain production. From 2020 to 2022 alone, Anyue completed 39,000 acres of "returning fruit land to grain."

While fruit trees moved to mountains, fruiting isn't easy: a lemon takes four to five years from planting to fruiting, then another two years from fruiting to high yield. Therefore, although Anyue's total lemon cultivation area has steadily increased to 480,000 acres, this year's county-wide fresh lemon output is expected not to exceed 700,000 tons, with year-over-year increases within 100,000 tons.

"Because some orchards haven't fruited or reached high yield," Liao Huajian said. Comprehensive analysis suggests this year's lemon prices should be at recent highs, while downstream lemon water and other product price fluctuations require continued monitoring.

**Multi-Party Debate on Future Prospects** **Expansion Becomes Core Controversy, Experts Suggest Focusing on Full-Chain "Internal Skill Development"**

Just days ago, "Anyue Lemon" was selected for the 2025 Agricultural Brand Premium Cultivation Plan - only five province-wide, indicating significant value.

Following consecutive positive developments, many local farmers are considering expansion or reclaiming orchards from companies for self-cultivation. After all, 20,000 yuan per acre output value is extremely tempting. Whether to expand has sparked intense pro-and-con debate. Opposition argues: Do you have such patience and investment capacity? What if prices crash next year?

"Price volatility has been too extreme these years; small scattered farmers really lack investment patience and risk resistance," said Liu Dengming, a Maoshi Village resident, still regretful about last year's production reduction. He explained that due to persistently low prices since 2023, village peers took varying degrees of laissez-faire approaches to their orchards last year. Liu believes scaling up is the "trump card" for stable production and pricing.

Currently, Anyue lemon cultivation's scaling degree remains insufficient. Anyue County Agriculture and Rural Affairs Bureau officials acknowledge that small scattered farmers under 100 acres account for 40% of Anyue lemon cultivation - the most volatile group. When market conditions decline, local low-yield, low-efficiency, or mismanaged orchards significantly increase.

What should be done? "Focus on full-chain 'internal skill development,'" suggests provincial Agriculture and Rural Affairs Department officials. Anyue County should strengthen leading lemon enterprise cultivation and introduction while connecting research, cultivation, primary processing, and sales chains. Ultimately, use more certainty in production, supply, and sales to counter uncertainty. The official mentioned that if Anyue had sufficient cold storage locally, last year's fresh fruit could have been preserved until around August this year, reducing lemon price volatility and elevating farmers' overall returns.

Liao Huajian introduced that currently, Anyue lemons have become one of the main varieties in Sichuan fruit industry development, receiving funding and project support. Key initiatives include guiding fruit farmers to improve scaled cultivation through land transfer and shareholding, while deploying large-scale origin cold chain facilities and deep processing projects to extend fresh fruit sales temporal and spatial radius and increase added value, better addressing production and price volatility.

**Additional Information** **Working People's "Life-Sustaining Water" Ingredients Mainly Sourced from Anyue**

Regarding "MIXUE GROUP lemon drink shortages in multiple locations," MIXUE GROUP responded that individual store ingredient fluctuations in some regions resulted from a batch of imported lemons delayed by weather, while Sichuan-Chongqing lemons entered harvest season but require storage to optimize taste, causing supply tension in some areas. However, overall lemon reserves are very sufficient.

Anyue is one of MIXUE GROUP's main fresh lemon suppliers. In September 2020, MIXUE GROUP registered Snow King Agriculture (Sichuan) Co., Ltd. in Anyue, responsible for lemon storage and operations, controlling quality from supply chain sources. Data shows 2023 MIXUE GROUP lemon usage was approximately 115,000 tons, mostly procured from Anyue. Rising ingredient prices challenge tea beverage company supply chains. MIXUE GROUP's lemon supply chain layout combines order procurement with warehousing, establishing stable cooperation through Snow King Agriculture in main production areas like Anyue and Chongqing Tongnan.

"Last year's inventory is basically cleared. Currently, supply partially depends on newly harvested fresh fruit, with another portion relying on imports," said Li Jincheng, relevant official from Snow King Agriculture (Sichuan) Co., Ltd. As Anyue lemons enter peak production season, supply tension should be alleviated.

Why do harvested lemons need storage to optimize taste? This improves flavor and reduces bitterness, typically requiring about two months of storage.