Abstract

Ameren will release its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 11, 2026, Post Market; this preview consolidates recent forecasts and market commentary to frame expectations around revenue, margins, EPS, and key segment trends.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to a softer top line in the current quarter with total revenue projected at USD 1.74 billion, implying a year-over-year decrease of 8.14%. The company’s forecast set suggests EBIT of USD 0.35 billion with a year-over-year decrease of 8.22%, EPS of USD 0.78 implying a year-over-year decrease of 2.39%, and revenue of USD 1.74 billion with a year-over-year decrease of 8.14%. Margin-wise, Street modeling embeds flattish-to-lower gross profit margin and a mildly lower net profit margin compared with last year, consistent with a rate-case mixed backdrop and normalizing weather. The main business is expected to be led by electric operations with stable volumetric demand and regulated returns, while gas distribution remains seasonally relevant; electric remains the most promising segment, anchored by capital plan execution and ongoing recovery mechanisms.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Ameren reported revenue of USD 2.70 billion, a gross profit margin of 54.00%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 0.64 billion with a net profit margin of 24.62%, and adjusted EPS of USD 2.17, supported by infrastructure rate base growth and constructive regulatory outcomes. A notable positive was a strong sequential profitability trend, as quarter-on-quarter net profit growth reached 132.73%, underpinned by seasonal load and favorable cost timing. Main business performance was dominated by electric operations at USD 2.56 billion revenue and gas operations at USD 0.14 billion; electric carried the quarter’s revenue base while gas provided supplementary winter-season contribution.

Current Quarter Outlook

Electric operations

Electric operations are the company’s core business and the principal driver of earnings quality this quarter. With regulated frameworks across Missouri and Illinois, revenue visibility is shaped by rate mechanisms and pending trackers tied to capital deployment. For the quarter, execution on grid modernization and energy delivery reliability programs continues to support the earnings bridge, though year-over-year comparisons are pressured by weather normalization and the absence of certain one-time positives from the prior year. Expect balanced pricing and prudent cost control to limit volatility in gross margin, while allowed returns and rate base growth underpin medium-term EPS stability.

Gas distribution

Gas distribution is seasonally meaningful but remains a smaller contributor to overall revenue and EBIT compared with electric. The near-term swing factors are heating degree days versus last year and ongoing recovery under decoupling or infrastructure riders where applicable. Given the forecast revenue decline at the consolidated level, we expect gas segment profitability to track closely with weather and fuel cost pass-through dynamics; margin consistency should be supported by regulatory constructs, but absolute revenue is likely lower year-over-year due to milder weather patterns embedded in forecasts.

Key stock price swing factors this quarter

Two items are poised to shape investor reaction: earnings quality relative to rate base growth guidance and visibility on 2026-onward capital plans. If adjusted EPS tracks near the USD 0.78 estimate with contained O&M and supportive trackers offsetting fuel and interest headwinds, investors may look through top-line weakness. Any color on constructive outcomes in pending or upcoming rate proceedings, as well as capital execution cadence on transmission and distribution projects, could recalibrate margin expectations and sustain valuation. Conversely, softer-than-expected weather-normalized volumes or incremental financing cost pressure could weigh on sentiment if not matched by regulatory recovery.

Analyst Opinions

Cautiously bullish views outweigh bearish stances among recent institutional previews, emphasizing resilient regulated earnings and manageable headwinds. Several research desks highlight supportive rate mechanisms and a visible multi-year capital plan as offsetting the anticipated revenue decline this quarter. The prevailing line is that while year-over-year revenue and EBIT may dip, the regulated construct, rate base growth, and cost discipline keep adjusted EPS broadly in line with expectations around USD 0.78; upside could emerge if O&M savings and weather normalization prove more favorable than modeled.