The China Development Forum 2026 Annual Meeting was held from March 22 to March 23. During a dialogue session, Zhu Min, former Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, stated that the prevailing market consensus indicates rising inflation expectations, which has reduced the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. However, inflation itself remains highly uncertain, particularly regarding energy price trends—whether they represent short-term fluctuations or a long-term trend is still difficult to determine. As a result, market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year are in a state of constant flux.

Discussing the topic of renminbi internationalization, Zhu Min emphasized that as China's economy transitions toward high-quality development, it requires a more resilient monetary system for support. Accelerating the internationalization of the renminbi is crucial for sustaining China's future economic growth.

Zhu Min pointed out that in recent years, as China's share in global trade has continued to rise, the use of the renminbi has become increasingly widespread in areas such as financial settlements, supply chains, and commodity procurement. He believes that, at the market level, trade cooperation between China and the rest of the world will open up significant opportunities for the renminbi, and its role in global financial markets will further strengthen.

Analyzing the global monetary landscape, Zhu Min noted that the US dollar still holds a dominant position and remains firmly entrenched. Although its share in global reserves has declined from 70% to 57%, the proportion remains relatively high. Nevertheless, significant changes have already taken place in the global economic structure.

Zhu Min further elaborated that the US share of global GDP has declined substantially, raising doubts about its ability to continue supporting a single dominant global currency. This, he suggested, represents a typical mismatch between currency status and economic fundamentals. He questioned whether the US can maintain its global currency status and currency stability through money issuance, pointing out that relying heavily on money printing to sustain its position would inevitably undermine confidence in the US dollar.

"Fundamentally, the world needs a more balanced monetary system—one that benefits the global community and offers more choices. A more balanced structure would help stabilize the global financial system and promote improvements in global financial governance," Zhu Min stated.