African Economies Demonstrate Enhanced Resilience Amid Global Challenges

Deep News
May 11

Regardless of whether the US-Iran ceasefire holds, the global economy has already been impacted, with low-income countries bearing the brunt, many of which are in Africa. For consumers already struggling to make ends meet, inflationary pressures are intensifying. How will African economies respond to these challenges? External observers often tend to view the impact of global shocks on Africa through a catastrophic and pessimistic lens. However, this perception now needs updating. Some African governments have taken urgent measures to try to cushion the impact of rising energy prices, but fiscal space is generally limited in many countries, making large-scale subsidies difficult. For instance, Kenya had to halve the value-added tax on fuel, while its fiscal deficit is projected to widen to nearly 7% of GDP. If inflation is not controlled, about 2 million Kenyans risk falling into poverty. Beyond fuel costs, food prices are also a major concern for policymakers across Africa. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent fertilizer prices soaring, which could lead to reduced agricultural productivity later this year, dragging down farm output. Yet Africa is better equipped to handle crises than in the past. In the 1980s, a global debt crisis coupled with the end of the commodity boom led to over a decade of economic stagnation in Africa, even causing several state collapses. At that time, government capacity was weak, making it difficult to implement effective social policies to mitigate the crisis impact. The 1980s crisis was largely a case of "bad timing": many African countries had been independent for only about two decades, political instability was frequent, state foundations were fragile, and they were forced into large-scale structural adjustments, which in turn led to output contraction and severe cuts in public services. But the situation today is markedly different. Over the past 25 years, Africa has weathered multiple major external shocks—the global financial crisis, the end of the commodity supercycle, the COVID-19 pandemic. In each of these shocks, most African economies demonstrated remarkable resilience. Even before the US-Iran conflict erupted, the African region was projected to achieve faster growth than Asia by 2026, a first in modern history. This shift stems primarily from three factors. First, reforms in the 1990s and early 2000s significantly improved the quality of macroeconomic policy. The era of "printing money recklessly" is over; African central banks are generally better at controlling inflation, and adjustment cycles are shorter and more orderly. While Ethiopia, Ghana, and Zambia have recently undergone painful debt restructurings, they have not repeated the 1980s scenario and are now back on growth paths. Second, economic expansion since the mid-1990s has fostered a vibrant informal private sector. Simultaneously, intra-African trade has increased substantially, rising from about 3% of total regional trade in the late 1950s to nearly 20%, enhancing resilience against global shocks. Third, deeper regional integration within Africa and diversification of global trade partners have played a role. Notably, strengthened new trade ties with other developing countries have reduced Africa's over-reliance on former colonial powers, making it better positioned to weather global volatility. Of course, the current shock from the Gulf crisis will still bring pain. African households, like those elsewhere, will face renewed inflationary pressures. But compared to the past, governments in many African countries are now more capable of steering their economies through crises. This should also influence how international multilateral institutions provide aid: external support should be more targeted, focusing on preserving household purchasing power and stabilizing exchange rates, rather than imposing unnecessary reforms.

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