The emerging micro-drama market is undergoing an AI revolution. Recently, messages such as "Red Fruit will cut 90% of its live-action short drama projects" and "abolish the guaranteed revenue-sharing mechanism" have spread rapidly on social media. According to Sina Tech, a short drama screenwriter stated, "The notice was issued in mid-February; the sudden cancellation of guarantees caught everyone off guard. Many pure production companies have fallen into a work stoppage, and projects have directly stalled." The person also mentioned that the script review cycle for Red Fruit short dramas has significantly lengthened, and the approval rate has dropped notably, with scripts submitted before the Spring Festival still awaiting feedback nearly a month later.

In response, on March 13th, Red Fruit Short Drama's Editor-in-Chief, Le Li, stated at the China TV Drama Production Industry Conference that Red Fruit's investment in live-action short dramas remains consistent and has not been reduced due to AI. "It was purely due to some mechanism issues; we made some adjustments to certain policies before the New Year. The adjustment plan wasn't finalized at the time, which may have led to misunderstandings based on our actions. We will soon announce a new comprehensive plan; overall, our investment in live-action short dramas continues as always," he said. Le Li also mentioned that in 2026, Red Fruit's total annual budget for content investment is expected to increase by over 40%. "In 2025, micro-dramas had nearly 700 million users domestically, with the market scale breaking through 100 billion yuan, achieving double growth compared to 2024," he stated.

However, it must be noted that many micro-drama actors and screenwriters indeed report a sharp decrease in workload. The micro-drama company Chengdu Zhongdu directly announced it will fully exit live-action filming after May. On the other hand, AI simulated human dramas are approaching their breakout moment. Soy Sauce Culture founder Huang Haonan stated at an industry seminar that 2026 will be the year of massive explosion for AI simulated human content, which will determine the entire market's model and direction. He revealed that in 2026, 80% of Soy Sauce Culture's comic-drama teams will switch to the "AI simulated human" track. Huang Haonan estimates that the market size for AI simulated human dramas will reach 24 billion yuan in 2026. "Our comic-dramas were the best-selling overseas last year, ranking number one on the charts; even live-action dramas didn't sell better than ours," he said. According to Short Drama Study Room, in 2025, Soy Sauce Culture ranked second in cumulative views on Douyin.

Separately, Aikan Interactive founder Meng Xiangyun revealed that the company is rapidly expanding. "We are continuously expanding our workspace and hiring people," he stated. Leading short drama company Jiuzhou Culture also disclosed that it is focusing on AI technology as a core strategy, independently developing AI creation tools, and prioritizing the construction of a micro-drama AI innovation base. Maiya Media has also posted numerous job openings related to AI.

Objectively, the current fervor for AI simulated human dramas is primarily driven by both technological and market forces. On February 12th, ByteDance announced the official release of its Doubao video generation model, Seedance 2.0. ByteDance stated that Seedance 2.0 has effectively addressed challenges such as adhering to physical laws and maintaining long-term consistency, while also giving creators unprecedented freedom, bringing video generation quality and controllability to professional production standards. Following this, AI simulated human dramas accelerated their breakout. "When we were producing comic-dramas, the consensus among most leading companies was that the future would inevitably move towards simulated humans because that market is larger. However, the release of version 2.0 around the Spring Festival significantly accelerated this process," Yun Suo Ying Cai founder He Yuanxiao told the 21st Century Business Herald.

Huang Haonan mentioned that AI human dramas are typically completed in 1-5 days, compared to 15-30 days for traditional short dramas, representing an efficiency increase of over tenfold. The core of AI human dramas lies in low cost, high efficiency, and mass production. He bluntly stated that the market for AI simulated human dramas is far broader than for comic-dramas. "A key point about AI human dramas is their extensive reach. Out of ten people, at most two might enjoy watching comic-dramas or anime, but all ten will watch live-action dramas—it's just that preferences differ; some watch movies, others TV series. Therefore, live-action dramas reach the largest and widest audience, generating the highest returns. This is one reason we are shifting to AI human dramas. Profitability is also due to the market being sufficiently large. AI simulation also allows me to pursue higher ideals and dreams; this is called technological democratization. What is AI technological democratization? It's not just about the technology itself, but that the entire market no longer relies solely on traffic leverage or connections. One doesn't even need to spend huge marketing costs to create a relatively popular work that gains market recognition and becomes a hit. This is another reason we chose AI human dramas. Through AI humans, we can reach ceilings previously inaccessible to us. The final reason is that AI human dramas are genuinely appealing; we also aspire to be the world's Pixar," Huang Haonan said.

It is important to note that platforms have also recognized the potential of AI simulated human dramas and are increasing subsidies. This forms a closed loop for the explosion of AI simulated human dramas. For example, according to Douyin Group's Short Drama Copyright Center, the platform's S+ level AI simulated human dramas have a guaranteed base rate of 6,000 yuan per minute, with a per-series guarantee ranging from 540,000 to 720,000 yuan. In comparison, S+ level 2D/3D comic-dramas have a guarantee of only 5,000 yuan per minute, with a per-series guarantee of 450,000 to 600,000 yuan. Regarding revenue-sharing coefficients, simulated human dramas are at 60%, 3D animated comic-dramas at 50%, 2D animated comic-dramas at 40%, emoji-pack dynamic comic-dramas at 10%, dynamic commentary comic-dramas at 5%, and static commentary comic-dramas at 1%.

Based on this, multiple industry insiders have stated that AI simulated human dramas are still in a window of红利期 (dividend period), where many can benefit from the industry's growth红利 (dividends). "When the volume of production and content reaches a point where users start noticing homogenization and become挑剔 (picky) about content details, the红利期 (dividend period) will be over," said a relevant person in charge from a platform side.

However, it should be seen that no single large model has monopolized the relevant market. The solution负责人 (person in charge) for the video large model Vidu,郑重 (Zheng Zhong), stated that the competitive landscape is continuously opening up. As models are constantly released, players will be in a state of交替领先 (alternating leadership), and the capability for model iteration is far from its final stage.郑重 (Zheng Zhong) told the 21st Century Business Herald that Vidu's advantage lies in its deeper research and service for the vertical video market. It is also understood that Vidu's order volume has been consistently growing.

Looking at the direction of AI simulated human dramas, new formats are催生 (giving rise to) new profit models. Huang Haonan mentioned that in platform revenue sharing, the highest single-drama guarantee has reached 3.6 million yuan, and it can be combined with广告植入 (advertising placements) and剧情带货 (in-scene product placement). Going global is also a possibility. Jiuziyuan AI's Chief Director Ding Kuan stated that they are researching the creation of AI stars. "In the future, film and television companies might encounter a significant ceiling and valuation boost, originating from AI+ management of IP, combined with virtual idols," he told the 21st Century Business Herald. Ding Kuan's AI simulated human drama work, "Lone City Shines: Sudden Change," once topped the Red Fruit comic-drama charts. Ding Kuan mentioned that with technological democratization, a new ecosystem will form in the future. Small teams of 10 people will act as creative units, focusing on IP creation, capital allocation, and risk management. "Small teams can sustainably and frequently delve deep into a single IP over the long term. This IP could be衍生开发 (derivative development) of an existing IP or an original creation. Such small studios will form a scattered chain of islands around major long and short video platforms in the future—this is a potential future ecosystem. Large companies might transform into many small islands, meaning each production group of 10 people operates within different systems. Therefore, I believe AI is the spear, IP is the shield; 'AI+IP' represents the relationship between spear and shield, a competition between IP universes," he said.

Huang Haonan believes that companies possessing IP will become the most valuable in the AI visual track. "The essence of AI is graphics cards, the underlying layer of graphics cards is electricity; ultimately, it's a competition based on electricity. When graphics cards meet all user needs, electricity becomes the most valuable resource. Similarly, the layer above AI visual is production, the layer below is the script, and below the script is IP," he said. Huang Haonan also mentioned that companies integrating scale, industrialization, and high-quality production will be the most valuable in the market. "Market demand is vast, needing to satisfy over a billion users domestically, and potentially two to three billion users including overseas markets. Without sufficient output volume and content, this track cannot grow large and strong. Adhering to极致精品化 (producing ultimate high-quality content) is also crucial. Everyone needs to jointly produce high-standard content to expand the market, attract more people into this track, and have more people see and enjoy anime, AI human dramas, and AI movies, contributing to this market. We not only need to满足 (satisfy) a massive user base but also need outstanding works and top-tier products to make the market繁荣 (prosperous)," he stated.

In fact, major giants are also increasing their bets on this track.阅文 (China Literature) CEO and President Hou Xiaonan stated at a recent earnings conference that in the comic-drama market,阅文 will further focus on breakthroughs in high-quality and hit content in 2026 to prepare for future规模化扩张 (scaled expansion). He disclosed that since the second half of 2025,阅文 has launched nearly a thousand AI comic-dramas, with over a hundred works exceeding 10 million views and 12 works surpassing 100 million views. The revenue from the AI comic-drama business also broke 100 million yuan in the latter half of the year. It is also understood by the 21st Century Business Herald that阅文 plans to open its top-tier IPs to comic-drama partners in 2026. iQiyi founder and CEO Gong Yu also mentioned that iQiyi plans to vigorously promote its AIGC ecosystem, and the media platform model will shift from centralized to decentralized.

Overall, major market participants are prepared for the explosion of AI simulated human dramas.