Orient Securities has released a research report stating that current disruptions in the futures market primarily stem from business migration, license applications, system upgrades, and capital replenishment pressures surrounding the implementation of new regulations. In the short term, industry operational rhythms and profit realization may continue to face disruptions during the policy transition period. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the return of financial services to licensed entities, raised entry barriers for trading businesses, strengthened measures against "internal competition" on commission fees, and the suppression of asset management acting merely as conduits are all expected to enhance the scarcity value of futures licenses and the institutional advantages for leading firms. Industry competition is also anticipated to increasingly center on capital strength, risk control capabilities, and comprehensive derivatives service offerings. The report suggests focusing on leading securities and futures companies with strong capital bases, solid client foundations, distinctive business features, and comprehensive capabilities in market making, derivatives, and asset management. Key viewpoints from Orient Securities are as follows.
On April 17, 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) solicited public comments on the "Measures for the Supervision of Futures Companies (Draft for Comment)" and its supporting implementation rules. The bank believes that, compared to the 2023 draft, this round of revisions is not merely incremental improvements but represents a systematic reshaping of futures companies' business licenses, regulatory boundaries, and organizational structures in light of the implementation of the Futures and Derivatives Law and the new industry landscape. Overall, the new regulations continue the main theme of "strengthened supervision, risk prevention, and promotion of high-quality development," with a clearer regulatory direction: to facilitate the return of relevant financial services currently handled by subsidiaries back to the licensed parent entities, and to promote the upgrade of futures companies from traditional brokerage licenses to comprehensive derivatives service licenses.
From a business framework perspective, the new regulations categorize domestic futures brokerage and futures trading advisory as basic businesses. Futures market making, derivatives trading, and futures asset management are classified as trading businesses, with simultaneously raised capital and entry thresholds. The registered capital requirement for basic businesses is 100 million or 200 million yuan. Operating one type of trading business requires 500 million yuan, while operating two or more types requires 1 billion yuan. When applying for new businesses, a company can apply for only one new business type at a time, with an interval of no less than six months from the last approval, and must also meet requirements for risk supervision indicators, personnel qualifications, and business operation duration. This further clarifies the tiered and classified supervision approach, raises industry entry barriers, and will make the capital and comprehensive capability advantages of leading institutions more pronounced.
A key marginal change in this revision is that certain financial businesses previously conducted by domestic subsidiaries will be returned to the futures company entity for operation. Futures market making and derivatives trading businesses, which were previously operated by risk management subsidiaries under association filing and self-regulatory frameworks, will now be operated by futures companies and brought under a licensing, access, and administrative supervision framework. Concurrently, relevant businesses already conducted by subsidiaries must be gradually phased out, with a transition period of 18 months. In contrast, the new draft also removes mentions of futures margin financing business and futures proprietary trading business that were present in the 2023 version. It explicitly states that futures companies' proprietary funds and futures asset management plans must not invest in high-risk, low-liquidity assets such as non-publicly traded stocks/equity and non-standard credit assets. The core of this regulatory adjustment is not simply balance sheet expansion but promoting the return of businesses and risks to the balance sheet, alongside a re-evaluation of license value, within a strengthened supervision framework.
Beyond the return of businesses, the new regulations also significantly enhance穿透式 (look-through) equity supervision, constraints on asset management scale, and ongoing regulatory requirements. For brokerage business, the new rules require futures companies to publicly disclose commission fee standards and clearly agree on specific fees with clients, potentially upgrading the "anti-internal competition" measures on futures commissions from self-regulation to departmental rules. For asset management business, the rules emphasize the unique characteristics of futures, requiring that other types of futures asset management plans use futures or derivatives tools for risk management of underlying assets, with the net fundraising scale of such plans not exceeding five times that of futures and derivatives-focused asset management plans. They also stress the active management responsibilities of managers to curb conduit-style expansion. Regarding equity and organizational management, the new rules simultaneously strengthen constraints on shareholders and ultimate controllers and improve centralized management requirements for subsidiaries and branches.
Overall, while short-term pressures related to compliance upgrades, business migration, and capital replenishment will increase for the industry, the medium- to long-term outlook is more favorable for increased concentration among leading institutions and optimization of the industry's competitive landscape.
Risk warnings include uncertainty regarding the pace of policy implementation and final terms, potential delays in business migration and license application progress, costs for capital replenishment and compliance upgrades exceeding expectations, and industry competition intensifying and divergence exceeding forecasts.