Title

Earning Preview: Nutanix Inc. this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 10.67%, and institutional views are bullish

Abstract

Nutanix Inc. will report fiscal second-quarter results on February 25, 2026, Post Market, with consensus looking for solid top-line growth and stable profitability metrics as the company navigates a balanced mix of product and support revenue and an expanding renewal base.

Market Forecast

Consensus for Nutanix Inc.’s fiscal Q2 2026 points to revenue of $710.35 million, up 10.67% year over year, EBIT of $148.87 million, up 10.87% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $0.45, down 4.68% year over year. There is no explicit market forecast for gross margin or net margin disclosure in the latest projections; last quarter’s gross profit margin was 86.96% and net profit margin was 9.26%, offering a reference point for profitability cadence heading into the print.

The main business mix remains balanced across product and support, and the company’s own revenue projections translate to continued growth in line with the expansion of installed-base renewals and multi-year engagements. Within that mix, product carried $349.00 million in revenue last quarter in a period when total revenue increased 13.47% year over year, setting the stage for further expansion as new deployments and expansions contribute to demand.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, Nutanix Inc. delivered revenue of $670.58 million, a gross profit margin of 86.96%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $62.10 million with a net profit margin of 9.26%, and adjusted EPS of $0.41, down 2.38% year over year. GAAP net profit improved 60.66% quarter over quarter on disciplined cost control and operating leverage, while revenue growth remained robust on a year-over-year basis. The main business mix reflected a balanced profile, with product contributing $349.00 million (52.05% of revenue) and support and other services contributing $321.57 million (47.95%) in a quarter where total revenue grew 13.47% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business trajectory and revenue quality

Nutanix Inc.’s primary revenue engine integrates product sales with support and other services in a near-even split, which stabilizes quarterly performance while providing visibility through recurring streams. The forecasted $710.35 million in fiscal Q2 revenue implies continued conversion of pipeline into billings, aided by renewals from an expanding installed base and upsell into existing customers. The previous quarter’s gross margin of 86.96% underscores the predominance of software and support in the mix; while no guidance has been provided for the current quarter’s margin, the operating structure suggests gross margin durability so long as revenue stays anchored in recurring products and support.

The interplay between revenue growth and operating expenses will be critical for translating top-line beats into earnings power. With EBIT estimated at $148.87 million, year-over-year growth of 10.87% appears largely in step with revenue growth, implying a relatively stable operating margin profile. A key focus into the print is sales productivity and deal linearity across the quarter, given the concentration of enterprise deals that can skew toward the end of the period; better linearity can improve expense efficiency and cash conversion, whereas late-quarter surges can weigh on operating leverage even if revenue meets expectations.

The adjusted EPS estimate of $0.45, down 4.68% year over year, points to the possibility that higher interest expense, stock-based compensation allocation, or timing of expense recognition may partially offset operating gains. This shapes expectations around earnings quality, with investors looking for stable gross margin and controlled sales and marketing spend to protect EPS even if top-line growth remains healthy. The company’s ability to maintain consistent renewal and expansion activity supports the revenue base; the incremental question for this quarter is whether operating leverage is preserved in line with EBIT growth or pressured by investments that set up growth for subsequent quarters.

Most promising business lever: product momentum and expansion activity

Product revenue, at $349.00 million last quarter within an overall 13.47% year-over-year company revenue increase, stands out as the lever with the clearest path to incremental growth as new deployments and expansions flow from qualified pipeline. While segment-level year-over-year metrics were not disclosed, the product line’s contribution to more than half of total revenue highlights its pivotal role in capturing demand from new workloads and additional capacity commitments from existing accounts. Execution on large deals and cross-sell into modules adjacent to core deployment can materially influence quarterly outcomes, particularly if multi-year commitments accelerate within the fiscal quarter.

The near-term setup suggests that product bookings cadence can drive not only recognized revenue but also forward indicators such as billings and remaining performance obligations, which investors will monitor for sustainability beyond fiscal Q2. A steady product mix of new and expansion deals tends to support overall revenue quality, as it feeds into future support revenue and contributes to deferred revenue growth. Against this backdrop, stability in pricing and discounting discipline becomes important to maintain the high-80% gross margin profile observed last quarter; any step-up in promotional activity could aid volume but would need to be balanced against profitability objectives.

For this earnings event, the degree of visibility into the product pipeline will influence how the market interprets the revenue beat or miss. If the company can highlight diversification across customer cohorts and geographies within product sales, investors may gain confidence that growth is not reliant on a narrow set of accounts. Conversely, any indication that large deal timing influenced the quarter could shift attention toward billings and backlog metrics to validate that growth is simply deferred rather than lost, underscoring why product remains the most sensitive and promising swing factor within the current mix.

Key stock price drivers this quarter: growth cadence, margins, and guidance

The stock’s immediate reaction will likely be driven by three interlocking elements: top-line performance relative to the $710.35 million consensus, margin durability given last quarter’s 86.96% gross margin baseline, and the forward view implied by commentary on the fiscal second-half pipeline. A revenue outcome even modestly above consensus could be amplified if accompanied by stable gross margin and evidence that operating expenses were managed in line with plan, thereby validating the $148.87 million EBIT trajectory. Given that adjusted EPS is expected to be $0.45, down year over year, investors will look for assurance that the EPS contraction is transitory and consistent with investment timing rather than signaling a structural shift in expense intensity.

Guidance quality and composition will be equally important. Clarity on billings, renewal rates, and multi-year deal activity can reassure investors that revenue momentum will carry through subsequent quarters, while any commentary on cost discipline can shape the path for operating leverage. If management articulates a framework that keeps EBIT growth near or above revenue growth, the market may extrapolate a stable-to-improving earnings outlook even if EPS is modestly down this quarter due to timing items. In contrast, any softening in guidance, especially on growth metrics, could overshadow a clean Q2 print, given the sensitivity around valuation for profitable growth in software-heavy models.

Beyond the headline numbers, qualitative disclosures will shape the post-print narrative. Investors will parse how the company describes the cadence of renewals and expansions within the installed base, the conversion of late-stage pipeline, and the distribution of deal sizes. Commentary signaling healthy demand across customer tiers and a disciplined approach to discounting would support the margin story; details indicating elevated variability in deal timing would place more emphasis on backlog and billings as sufficient leading indicators. In short, the confluence of revenue growth, margin steadiness, and credible guidance cadence will likely determine the stock’s direction after the release.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of recent institutional commentary skews bullish. In January and February 2026, several well-followed firms took positions that, on net, reinforced a positive stance: RBC maintained an Outperform rating while adjusting its price target twice during the period, most recently to $55 on February 11, 2026, and Oppenheimer maintained an Outperform rating while adjusting its target to $65. These supportive views outweigh the neutral tilt from Barclays and Morgan Stanley, both of which moved to Equalweight in mid-January. On a simple split of bullish versus bearish, the prevailing view is bullish.

RBC’s perspective emphasizes durable growth drivers and a balanced revenue mix heading into the fiscal Q2 event. The firm’s Outperform call, despite a lower target, reflects confidence that the forecast revenue of $710.35 million and EBIT of $148.87 million are achievable within a framework of steady renewals and expanding customer relationships. From this vantage point, modest EPS pressure relative to the prior year’s quarter is not inherently negative if it stems from investments that preserve or enhance medium-term growth and operating leverage. The analysts are likely to focus on consistency between the anticipated revenue cadence and any updates to the second-half outlook to validate that growth remains on track.

Oppenheimer’s maintained Outperform rating, paired with a reset target at $65, points to conviction that top-line expansion and profitability discipline can continue to coexist. Their stance implicitly highlights the supportive quality of revenue, driven by a recurring-heavy model that has historically delivered high gross margins. For the upcoming print, the firm’s bullish view hinges on a stable margin profile comparable to last quarter’s 86.96% gross margin and confirmation that the operating model can sustain low-double-digit EBIT growth, consistent with the 10.87% year-over-year forecast for this quarter. If the company reinforces visibility through commentary on deal flow and renewals, the analysts are positioned to argue that near-term EPS fluctuations are not indicative of weakening fundamentals.

By contrast, recent downgrades to Equalweight from Barclays and Morgan Stanley reflect a neutral posture rather than an outright bearish stance. These moves appear to be a recalibration of expectations and valuation rather than a rejection of the company’s earnings power or revenue trajectory. In this context, the bullish camp holds the majority, with supportive calls from RBC and Oppenheimer centered on sustainable revenue growth, high gross margins, and a credible path for EBIT expansion. The dominant narrative from these institutions anticipates a clean revenue beat-to-in-line outcome, stable margins near the high-80s, and guidance that signals continuity in the growth profile through the fiscal second half.

Aggregating these viewpoints, the majority of analysts expect Nutanix Inc. to deliver a quarter that validates mid-teens billings capacity and near-term revenue growth around the 10% level, with profitability tracking in line with the software-heavy profile observed last quarter. The focus among bullish institutions is on the repeatability of these outcomes—particularly the relationship between renewal strength and expansion activity—rather than a one-off result. As long as management reinforces visibility on pipeline conversion and keeps operating expenses aligned with revenue growth, the bullish view argues that the shares can remain supported by consistent execution and an earnings mix conducive to high gross margin and expanding EBIT.