Abstract

Hagerty will report second‑quarter 2026 financial results on August 5, 2026, Pre-Market; investors are watching revenue of 314.13 million US dollars, an estimated adjusted EPS of -0.09, and EBIT of 11.08 million for signals on expense control and policy growth.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of 314.13 million US dollars, a year-over-year decline of 9.51%, adjusted EPS of -0.09 (down 176.89% year over year), and EBIT of 11.08 million US dollars (down 73.97% year over year). No explicit margin guidance is embedded in the current-quarter forecast dataset. The core revenue engine remains earned premiums, which dominated the prior quarter’s mix and should be driven by renewal rates and new-business conversion through midyear peak selling; management’s cost-discipline signals and in-force policy trends will shape the quarter’s trajectory. Marketplace and membership monetization holds the largest incremental potential, with Marketplace revenue of 25.65 million US dollars last quarter and a catalyst pipeline that includes UK expansion; the forward setup depends on transaction volume resilience and integration of recently announced assets.

Last Quarter Review

Hagerty delivered revenue of 311.83 million US dollars in the last reported quarter, with a gross profit margin of 68.60%, a GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders of 6.52 million US dollars, a net profit margin of -2.09%, and adjusted EPS of -0.04; revenue fell 2.43% year over year and adjusted EPS declined 150% year over year. A notable feature was resilience in the revenue mix despite a seasonal loss-making quarter, as operating leverage remained sensitive to expense timing and non-operating investment line items. By segment, earned premiums contributed 239.64 million US dollars (approximately 76.85% of total), Marketplace revenue was 25.65 million US dollars, membership and other was 22.13 million US dollars, commissions and fees were 16.43 million US dollars, net investment income was 10.26 million US dollars, and net investment losses reduced revenue by 2.29 million US dollars.

Current Quarter Outlook

Earned Premiums and Policy Economics

The near-term earnings profile will be led by earned premiums performance, where policy renewal and new-business conversion determine revenue pacing into midyear. With consensus revenue at 314.13 million US dollars for the quarter, expectations point to contraction from the prior year despite sequential stability from a 311.83 million US dollars base last quarter. Two swing factors dominate: acquisition cost cadence relative to premium growth, and claims experience that drives the underwriting contribution feeding through gross margin. While gross margin guidance is not explicitly provided for this quarter, the prior quarter’s 68.60% level sets a benchmark that will be tested by mix and loss-ratio developments. Expense timing is also critical: front-loaded growth investments can suppress interim profitability even if annualized policy economics remain attractive. Consequently, the degree to which management moderates discretionary spending and aligns it with in-force premium growth could be a pivotal determinant of how close results land to EBIT and EPS expectations.

Marketplace and Membership Monetization

Marketplace and membership lines present the clearest incremental revenue lever. Last quarter, Marketplace revenue reached 25.65 million US dollars and membership and other revenue reached 22.13 million US dollars, together forming a meaningful non-premium contribution that can compound as engagement deepens. For the current quarter, the integration of product features, cross-sell from the policy base, and event-driven activity represent demand catalysts that can bolster top line even as headwinds weigh on adjusted EPS. Transaction volume is the heartbeat for Marketplace: if liquidity and buyer activity hold through peak seasonal months, Marketplace can offset some of the pressure embedded in the -9.51% revenue year-over-year forecast. Membership fee growth and attach rates are key, as higher conversion from policyholders into paid membership tiers can lift predictability and margins over time. The announced plan to acquire the specialty motorcycle insurance broker Bennetts—expected to close in the third quarter subject to regulatory approval—adds a tangible cross-market funnel for future periods and may influence how investors handicap the sustainability of Marketplace and membership monetization.

Expense Discipline, Investment Line Items, and Near-Term Stock Drivers

The market’s primary concern is the disconnect between revenue contraction and profitability projections, with consensus looking for adjusted EPS of -0.09 and EBIT of 11.08 million US dollars, implying material year-over-year compression. This sets a high bar for expense discipline: credible signals of slower non-essential spend, phasing of marketing, and productivity gains will be read positively, even before revenue inflects. The investment line (net investment income and any realized/unrealized effects) also bears watching given the prior quarter’s 10.26 million US dollars contribution and a 2.29 million US dollars net investment loss item that partially offset the total; quarter-to-quarter variability can impact bottom-line optics even if core operations track plan. In addition, transaction-related updates on the Bennetts acquisition can shape sentiment: clarity on closing timelines, integration costs, and early revenue synergies may support the multiple if management demonstrates a straightforward path to accretion without materially elevating operating expense run-rate. Finally, commentary on in-quarter policy retention and new-business pace will be closely parsed against the revenue estimate, since small deviations in earned premium volume can meaningfully change the EBIT and EPS outcome for a quarter with limited margin buffer.

Analyst Opinions

On balance, external views skew cautious into the print. Among the recent opinions, Truist maintained a Hold stance while cutting its price target to 11 US dollars from 13 US dollars during May 2026, highlighting a tempered near-term outlook as operating investments weigh on profitability. A separate preview characterizes institutional expectations as cautious, reflecting the consensus for a 9.51% year-over-year revenue decline to 314.13 million US dollars, an adjusted EPS loss of -0.09 implying a 176.89% year-over-year deterioration, and EBIT of 11.08 million US dollars down 73.97% year over year. This majority viewpoint emphasizes the trade-off between growth initiatives and near-term earnings power, arguing that expense moderation and evidence of improving unit economics are prerequisites for a durable inflection in margins. From a fundamental perspective, the cautious camp focuses on three elements. First, the span between the prior quarter’s 68.60% gross margin and the negative adjusted EPS underscores the sensitivity of net outcomes to expense timing and non-operating items. Analysts in this camp expect volatility to persist in the short run, especially if Marketplace and membership momentum only partially offsets premium pressure in a seasonally active period. Second, the forecast compression in EBIT points to a slimmer operating cushion this quarter, which raises the importance of execution precision on acquisition costs and product initiatives. With the last quarter producing a net margin of -2.09% and a GAAP net loss of 6.52 million US dollars, the hurdle for material bottom-line improvement is nontrivial without clear evidence of leverage. Third, while the pending Bennetts acquisition is seen as a strategic positive for future geographic and product reach, the cautious view treats near-term integration and investment requirements as a drag on quarterly optics, until synergy capture is evident in the revenue and contribution lines. In their scenario analysis, the majority view frames upside as dependent on a narrow set of outcomes: a better-than-expected renewal and new-business flow supporting earned premiums, firm Marketplace activity translating into higher take rate and transaction volume, and visible tightness in operating expenses. Absent these, consensus metrics—314.13 million US dollars revenue, -0.09 adjusted EPS, and 11.08 million US dollars EBIT—are viewed as reasonable midpoints with downward skew if expense absorption or claims experience disappoint. The result is a guarded stance into August 5, 2026, where investors may prioritize qualitative commentary on expense phasing and post-close integration planning over short-term beats, given the steep year-over-year declines implied by current forecasts.