The lingering ambiguity surrounding when OpenAI might go public is casting a long shadow over the upcoming stock market debut of SoftBank's U.S. data center venture, which has yet to switch on a single facility.

SB Energy serves as the primary vehicle for the Japanese conglomerate's aggressive bet on the AI boom. SoftBank's thesis hinges on the belief that explosive demand for AI computing power will fuel sustained growth in the data center sector, a cornerstone of founder Masayoshi Son's sweeping vision for the future of technology. The initial public offering, which could materialize within the next few weeks, is targeting a valuation near $50 billion.

This listing will serve as a critical barometer for investor appetite to keep funding Son's high-stakes gamble, which increasingly ties his fortunes to two of the most pivotal players in artificial intelligence. Both OpenAI and chipmaking giant Nvidia are slated to hold significant stakes in the post-IPO SB Energy.

According to insiders, OpenAI has postponed its own IPO timetable and is in early discussions to raise private capital at a valuation that could reach $1.2 trillion. This development introduces a fresh layer of complexity for SoftBank, which has already pledged over $60 billion to the ChatGPT creator. That capital is essential to bankroll Son's planned surge of new AI investments next year.

OpenAI's valuation has a material impact on SoftBank's own corporate value and its balance sheet. While SB Energy is significantly smaller, a successful listing would bolster SoftBank's net asset value, enhancing Son's capacity to raise additional funds from banks and capital markets. "This is very much SoftBank's 'circle of life,'" said MST Financial analyst David Gibson, noting that it deepens the group's financial exposure to OpenAI while enabling Son to "leverage more debt and invest more."

SB Energy's mission is to construct data centers, connect them to the power grid, and in some cases, develop accompanying electricity generation. However, the company, which started life as a renewable energy firm in 2019, has experienced a turbulent journey. It holds a backlog of signed contracts worth $439 billion in future revenue, with the vast majority tied to 8.8 gigawatts of data center capacity under average lease terms exceeding 19 years.

Among firms building computing power for third-party clients, only CoreWeave, the cloud service provider that pivoted from cryptocurrency mining, holds a comparable order book, with contracts surpassing $100 billion. Yet, SB Energy currently operates no live data centers, which explains why a significant portion of its $357 billion in forward contracted revenue is not expected to be recognized until 2034 or later. The centerpiece of its portfolio is a computing campus in Ohio, projected to add 8 gigawatts of capacity by 2032, dwarfing Meta's largest data center in Louisiana, which will reach 5 gigawatts after expansion.

Nvidia has already agreed to provide guarantees worth $105 billion for the initial phase of the Ohio project. OpenAI will be a tenant at that campus and at an SB Energy site in Texas, while SoftBank itself is listed as a customer for another planned Texas location.

SB Energy has acknowledged the inherent risk of its heavy reliance on interconnected major stakeholders, particularly noting that a strategic pivot by OpenAI would directly impact its operations. In its IPO prospectus, the company states: "Our near-term revenue, project-level financing arrangements, and development plans are highly dependent on OpenAI's continued performance under leases and related agreements."

Recently, concerns about the potential dangers of AI have resurfaced, with growing calls to slow down or halt development. While OpenAI executives maintain that the company would continue investing in chips and infrastructure even if the pace of AI advancement decelerates, any slowdown would have profound consequences for this data center venture. The contrast between SB Energy's grand ambitions and its current financials is stark: the company generated just $138.7 million in revenue during the first half of this year, mostly from its legacy solar operations, while posting an operating loss of $551.6 million.

Beyond the IPO itself, SB Energy faces the monumental task of securing massive additional financing, a point of widespread market skepticism. Reports indicate the IPO aims to raise between $5 billion and $7 billion, with SoftBank retaining majority control. SB Energy has stated that completing its contracted data center construction and collecting rent will require over $170 billion in capital expenditure. Individuals familiar with the company's strategy say it plans to maintain an equity stake of around 10% in these projects, a typical range for SoftBank project financing. Gibson estimates this means, excluding IPO proceeds and existing contributions, the company will need to raise an additional $7 billion to cover its capital outlays. However, those close to SB Energy suggest that cash flow generated once projects become operational will alleviate much of the funding pressure, and both SoftBank and the company are confident in finding interested investors for both equity and debt financing.

The uncertainty surrounding project funding is a primary reason investors find it difficult to value the company. Some believe the $50 billion target is a stretch; Gibson notes the valuation "looks high" given the significant client concentration. One SoftBank investor remarked, "The information currently available doesn't support the logic of this valuation." Nonetheless, confidence within SoftBank regarding the achievable valuation is growing, with sources saying investment banks generally consider the $50 billion figure to be reasonable. CoreWeave, a company that reinvented itself to ride the AI wave, faced similar doubts before its IPO in March last year, with concerns over its industry inexperience and high customer concentration. Since then, driven by insatiable demand for computing power, its market value has more than doubled to nearly $50 billion. Some optimistic investors believe in Son's ability to defy negative expectations, having witnessed his successful handling of chip designer Arm's listing and trusting his capacity to unlock further value from his sprawling ecosystem. A long-time SoftBank investor, speaking about Son, said, "This IPO is another bet on Masa. Remember, he always tends to succeed amidst skepticism."