Hong Kong Market Analysis: "Lobster Farming" Trend Revives, Newly Added Stocks Gain Traction

Stock News
Mar 09

The weekend passed without significant positive news, leading Hong Kong stocks to open lower on Monday in line with the prevailing weak sentiment. However, demonstrating resilience, the market gradually recovered from early losses, narrowing the decline to 1.35% by the close. Iran's internal consolidation has concluded with the election of Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Ayatollah Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader, signaling Iran's readiness for a firm stance. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the President, and the Foreign Minister have all expressed support, calling for enhanced national unity. This development indicates that US-Israeli plans to destabilize Iran have failed, potentially triggering further retaliation. The primary concern remains oil. An Iranian drone attack on Bahrain's state-owned refinery has disrupted supplies, though domestic needs are reportedly met for now. The vital Strait of Hormuz is paralyzed, forcing oil producers like Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE to cut output due to insufficient storage capacity. Saudi Arabia's use of Yanbu port offers little relief, as most shipments transit the Suez Canal, leaving Asian nations like Japan and South Korea under pressure. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has ordered preparations to release strategic petroleum reserves. A significant risk looms over Iran's Kharg Island, which handles 90% of the country's crude exports. The fate of this "oil lifeline" is a key variable in current geopolitical risks. Any US-Israeli strike on Kharg would sever Iran's economic artery but invite severe retaliation. Recent conflicts have degraded US military bases in the Middle East and damaged Israeli air defenses, with missile stocks dwindling. Iran's vast drone arsenal, exceeding 80,000 units, poses a prolonged threat. A war of attrition may prove unsustainable for the US and Israel. In a March 8 interview, former President Trump mentioned coordinating with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to decide on ending military actions against Iran, hinting at a potential exit. Beyond the conflict, the oil crisis is critical. Rising oil prices could alienate Trump's MAGA supporters. Russia stands to benefit, adding pressure on the US via the Ukraine front. In response to the oil crisis, G-7 finance ministers will hold an emergency meeting to discuss a coordinated release of strategic reserves led by the International Energy Agency. Three members, including the US, support the idea. This news pushed WTI crude below $110 per barrel, trimming gains to 18%, with Brent also falling below $110. Oil and gas stocks retreated after early gains, but reserve releases are a temporary fix; without resolving root issues, prices may rise again. A ceasefire announcement remains the only hope for lower oil prices. The energy crisis has boosted coal demand, sidelining carbon neutrality goals as economic survival takes precedence. Yancoal Australia (03668) rose over 8%, and SouthGobi Resources (01878) gained over 6%, with other coal stocks up around 3%. The US power shortage continues to escalate, with three regional grid operators approving $75 billion in transmission expansion projects, focusing on 765 kV ultra-high-voltage lines. Equipment supplier Weisen Holdings (03393) climbed over 5%. A new "lobster farming" trend has emerged, with major cloud providers like Tencent Cloud, Alibaba Cloud, and China Mobile Cloud participating. Shenzhen's Longgang district offers subsidies up to RMB 2 million for related projects. Wuxi High-tech Zone released draft measures to support OpenClaw integration, promoting local AI agent development. Essentially, the government covers computing, data, and deployment costs for "lobster farming." This benefited cloud-related stocks like Kingsoft Cloud (03896), a March top pick, which surged nearly 14%. GDS Holdings (09698), a direct computing power provider, rose almost 6%. The first lobster AI benchmark ranking revealed 32 models, with Gemini 3 Flash leading at 95.1% success rate. Domestic models MiniMax and Kimi ranked top three globally, outperforming GPT-4o. Notably, Claude's flagship version costs nearly 200 times more than competitors but underperforms mid-tier models. MiniMax (00100) jumped almost 24%, and Zhipu AI (02513) gained over 8%. Another highlight was newly added southbound trading stocks, such as Xunce (03317), which surged over 52% after forecasting a 102.95% revenue increase to RMB 1.283 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025, driven by AI model adoption and the "lobster farming" trend. Other additions like Jin Fang Medicine-B (02595) and Jiaxin International Resources (03858) rose over 8%. XPeng (09868) advanced over 5% after launching the G6 super range-extended SUV in Guangzhou, which has garnered 180,000 owners globally and led sales in its segment in China. Its second-generation VLA will roll out in late March. Automakers compete on technology, such as BYD's (01211) new megawatt-level fast charging, estimated to provide a six-month market lead; the stock rose over 3%.

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