Mobile Phone Supply Chain Stocks Plunge as Morgan Stanley Cuts Global Smartphone Shipment Forecast by 15%

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Yesterday

Mobile phone supply chain stocks experienced a broad decline. At the time of writing, Q TECH (01478) fell 5.52% to HKD 7.7. LENS (06613) dropped 5.38% to HKD 20.42. COWELL (01415) decreased by 5% to HKD 23.54. BYD ELECTRONIC (00285) was down 2.32% at HKD 30.3.

Morgan Stanley released a research report stating it expects smartphone OEMs to increase average selling prices and pass on most component costs. Such price hikes are highly likely to cause a substantial demand shortfall for Android smartphones, as end-users are more price-sensitive. The firm has lowered its forecast for global smartphone shipments in 2026 by 15% to 1.1 billion units. Within this context, Apple's supply chain may also outperform the Android supply chain.

Citigroup, meanwhile, has revised down its global smartphone shipment forecasts for this year and next to 1.04 billion and 1.17 billion units, respectively. This represents a 17% year-on-year decrease for the current year, followed by a 12% year-on-year growth the next year. The bank predicts shipments will increase 7% year-on-year to 1.25 billion units by 2028. These forecasts are based on factors including memory shortages, rising prices, and weak demand driven by increasing inflation. The projected year-on-year increases for average selling prices are 7%, 2%, and 3% for the respective periods.

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