On Tuesday, February 18, the gold and silver markets witnessed significant price declines, driven by short-term speculative position unwinding and negative influences from external markets. This downward movement reflects investors' high sensitivity to changes in the macroeconomic environment, particularly as the US dollar index shows signs of rebounding and commodities like crude oil weaken, challenging the logic that previously supported precious metals at elevated levels. Although the long-term bullish outlook is not entirely dismantled, crowded long positions and holiday-induced liquidity tightening have placed noticeable pressure on gold prices around the 4904.10 level.
On the geopolitical front, ongoing regional nuclear talks have released signals of easing tensions, leading to the withdrawal of risk-averse capital that had previously carried a high premium from the gold market. While diplomatic maneuvers remain protracted and complex, the near-term expectation of reduced conflict has diminished the urgency for investors to hold non-yielding assets. Concurrently, as crude oil prices fall to around 62.25, a temporary weakening of inflation expectations has reduced the appeal of physical assets as an inflation hedge, further fueling bearish sentiment.
Regarding the current technical landscape, the sharp decline in gold and silver prices has tested several key technical support levels. Gold is currently trading near the center of a wide fluctuation range, facing resistance at psychological barriers such as 5000 and 5250, while support levels around 4800 and 4670 are under scrutiny. Silver has experienced more pronounced volatility; after oscillating near 73.66, the market is closely watching the support strength around the 70 mark. In-depth analysis of market structure indicates that this adjustment phase is primarily a proactive unwinding of leveraged positions rather than a structural exit of long-term buyers.
Looking ahead, the long-term trajectory of gold and silver remains anchored to the evolution of global sovereign credit and monetary policies, rather than isolated geopolitical events. Although currently facing pressure from a stronger US dollar and receding safe-haven demand, the strategic value of precious metals is expected to reemerge once the market undergoes sufficient position turnover. Investors are advised to view the current rapid pullback as an opportunity to assess asset resilience, with close attention on the ability to reclaim the 5000 threshold. It is anticipated that by 2026, the market will establish a more stable value equilibrium through the interplay of bullish and bearish forces, though near-term caution is warranted against potential volatility expansion.