Morgan Stanley Maintains Confidence in Sustained Capital Inflows to China Market; Structural Improvements in A-Shares to Deepen

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On November 25, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Equity Strategist Wang Ying released a report reiterating a cautiously optimistic stance on the Chinese market and expressing confidence in sustained capital inflows. The firm continues to emphasize to global investors that structural improvements in China's stock market will deepen further. These include enhanced shareholder returns, improved corporate earnings, ongoing optimization of the business environment for private enterprises, proactive policy support, and stabilizing geopolitical conditions.

Wang Ying noted, "Investors appear focused on identifying bullish signals for China's market but remain wary of rising volatility. We reiterate our cautious optimism and maintain confidence in continued capital inflows. Should fiscal stimulus intensify significantly or global trade conditions improve further, we may adopt a more positive outlook."

Regarding increased market volatility since October, Wang Ying expressed no pessimism. She highlighted that while a significant U.S. market correction could pose external risks to global risk assets (including Chinese equities), China's stock market—particularly A-shares—has the lowest correlation with U.S. stocks among major global markets, positioning it to outperform peers in such scenarios.

Morgan Stanley projects the MSCI China Index target at 90 points by December 2026, implying a ~7% upside from its November 25, 2025, level. "Our upside estimate for the index has narrowed as valuations now appear largely reasonable," Wang Ying added.

She further stated, "During recent strategy roadshows and key client engagements, we’ve received consistently positive feedback from international investors on China’s equities. This reinforces our view that global investors are gradually returning to the Chinese market, with net inflows likely to persist over the next year."

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