September 5th - Against the backdrop of complex and ever-changing global economic and political conditions, the gold market has recently attracted significant investor attention. This week, gold prices initially surged upward, continuously setting new historical highs, before experiencing a notable pullback that triggered intense market sentiment fluctuations. On Wednesday, spot gold briefly climbed to $3,578.38, demonstrating strong upward momentum. However, the situation reversed dramatically on Thursday, with spot gold closing down 0.4% at $3,545.63 per ounce, having touched an intraday low of $3,511.44. As of Friday's early Asian trading session, spot gold has been trading in a narrow range around $3,550.
Market Fundamentals Analysis: U.S. Department of Labor data revealed that the United States added 73,000 jobs in July 2025, marking a nine-month low. Additionally, the recently released August ADP National Employment Report showed private sector employment increased by only 54,000 positions, falling well short of market expectations of 65,000, while July figures were revised upward to 106,000. Furthermore, last week's initial unemployment claims exceeded expectations, rising to 237,000, above the anticipated 230,000. These data collectively indicate that the U.S. labor market is gradually cooling. As the labor market serves as an economic barometer, its weakening trajectory has strengthened market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, thereby supporting gold prices. Rate cuts reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and typically weaken the dollar, making dollar-denominated gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. However, the weak data has also made investors cautious ahead of important data releases, such as before non-farm payroll announcements, when investors tend to avoid making large bets, which has somewhat affected gold's short-term price movements.
Federal Reserve Independence Concerns: Trump's attempts to dismiss Federal Reserve Board members like Cook have raised market concerns about potential damage to Fed independence. Goldman Sachs analysts note that if the Federal Reserve's independence is compromised, it could lead to increased inflation, declining stock and long-term bond prices, and the loss of the dollar's reserve currency status. In contrast, gold, as a store of value that doesn't rely on institutional trust, becomes significantly more attractive under such circumstances. Market concerns about Fed independence issues would prompt investors to increase their gold allocations as a hedge against potential risks.
Gold Technical Analysis: From a daily chart perspective, the MACD indicator continues to show volume expansion following an earlier golden cross, indicating strong bullish momentum, though the current stochastic oscillator is in overbought territory, suggesting short-term pullback risks. The 5-day moving average previously provided important support for gold prices, but following Thursday's significant correction, the relationship between gold prices and the 5-day MA has become delicate. If gold can regain a foothold above the 5-day MA (roughly in the $3,530-3,540 range), the upward trend may continue; a break below could trigger a more substantial correction. From a weekly perspective, since gold's rise last year, prices have repeatedly bounced higher after touching the middle Bollinger Band support, with the bands opening upward, indicating strong bullish prospects overall. However, given that gold is currently at historical highs, investors should be alert to potential retracement and consolidation movements. On the hourly chart, MACD shows a golden cross at high levels with diminishing volume, currently in a consolidation phase, while the MA5 and MA10 are converging to form support around the 3,535-3,540 level, presenting a short-term oscillating but relatively strong pattern.
Today, market focus is undoubtedly centered on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data release, which will have a significant impact on gold price movements.
If the non-farm employment data performs poorly, with job additions falling well below expectations (market consensus expects 75,000), and unemployment rising (expected to climb to 4.3%), this would further strengthen market expectations for Fed rate cuts, reigniting gold's safe-haven demand. In this scenario, spot gold prices could break above the recent high of $3,578.38, pushing toward the $3,600 psychological level. Domestic gold T+D would likely follow suit, with upside resistance in the 820-825 yuan/gram range.
Conversely, if non-farm employment data exceeds expectations, with job additions significantly above 75,000 and unemployment declining, this could cool market expectations for Fed rate cuts and potentially strengthen the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices. Spot gold could fall below $3,530, potentially testing the $3,500 psychological support level. Domestic gold T+D might retreat to the 805-810 yuan range.
Before the non-farm data release, spot gold is expected to oscillate within the $3,530-3,570 range, with domestic gold T+D fluctuating between 808-815 yuan/gram. Investors should closely monitor market reactions following the data release, maintain strict stop-loss discipline, control risks, and carefully navigate trading opportunities.