Abstract

Ardelyx will report fiscal fourth-quarter results on February 19, 2026 Post Market; investors will focus on revenue momentum, margin trajectory, and progress of key growth drivers supported by broadening analyst optimism.

Market Forecast

Consensus tracking for the current quarter points to revenue of $118.13 million, a year-over-year increase of 7.45%, with EBIT estimated at $7.07 million and EPS forecast at $0.01, implying a continued positive operating trend; year-over-year estimates translate to 40.13% growth for EBIT and 173.00% growth for EPS. Based on the last reported quarter, the gross profit margin was 80.02% and the net profit margin was -0.88%; the company’s current-quarter guidance from tracking data primarily centers on topline and profitability recovery, with year-over-year estimates signaling improvement, though no specific gross or net margin forecasts were provided. The main business remains product sales, supplemented by non-cash royalty and license income; product sales are expected to carry the bulk of revenue this quarter with a focus on volume and payer coverage expansion. The most promising segment is product sales at $105.52 million in the last quarter, which provides the scale base to drive operating leverage as volumes grow; non-cash royalty and license fees were $4.79 million and $0.03 million respectively.

Last Quarter Review

In the most recent reported quarter, Ardelyx delivered revenue of $110.33 million, a gross profit margin of 80.02%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of -$0.97 million, a net profit margin of -0.88%, and adjusted EPS that rounded to $0.00, with year-over-year revenue growth of 12.30%. The quarter’s key financial highlight was operating income of $4.67 million as operating expenses were held to $101.68 million, supporting an EBIT margin inflection. Main business performance was led by product sales of $105.52 million, while non-cash royalty income was $4.79 million and license fees were $0.03 million, indicating revenue concentration in core commercial products.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main commercial business momentum

The company’s core commercial revenue stream continues to be product sales, which accounted for the vast majority of last quarter’s revenue at $105.52 million. With consensus revenue projected at $118.13 million for the current quarter, the implied sequential growth suggests solid demand and improving channel throughput. The reported gross margin of 80.02% in the prior quarter indicates a favorable product mix and manufacturing scale that can support incremental profitability as volumes increase. Management’s recent trajectory, indicated by the step-up from $110.33 million to a forecasted $118.13 million, points to broader payer coverage and prescriber adoption as core drivers. A sustained gross margin near the prior-quarter level would provide a buffer against operating expense normalizations, helping EBIT to approach the $7.07 million estimate.

Most promising revenue driver

Product sales remain the most promising growth engine given their size and demonstrated quarterly performance. The base of $105.52 million in product sales last quarter provides operating leverage potential; as fixed costs are absorbed over a larger revenue base, consensus expects EBIT to grow at a faster rate than revenue, with year-over-year EBIT growth forecast at 40.13% versus revenue at 7.45%. Pricing stability and increased patient starts in key therapeutic areas can further support this trajectory. Non-cash royalties and license revenues, though modest at $4.79 million and $0.03 million respectively, provide incremental contribution but will not be the primary swing factors for quarterly earnings. Monitoring prescription trends and any formulary updates during the quarter will be important for assessing sustainability of the revenue ramp.

Stock price swing factors this quarter

Earnings sensitivity will likely center on the degree to which gross margin holds near the prior-quarter level of 80.02% and whether operating expenses remain aligned with revenue growth to deliver the projected $7.07 million of EBIT. Any deviation in net margin from the prior quarter’s -0.88% toward positive territory could act as a catalyst, especially if EPS meets or exceeds the $0.01 forecast. On the revenue side, upside or downside to the $118.13 million expectation will be scrutinized for signs of demand elasticity or market access shifts. Investors will also pay attention to qualitative commentary around prescriber adoption, payer dynamics, and pipeline catalysts that could influence 2026 revenue visibility. The balance between continued commercial investment and operating discipline remains a key determinant of short-term valuation reactions.

Analyst Opinions

The ratio of bullish to bearish views in the latest period skews bullish, with recent coverage reflecting favorable stance and target price revisions. A prominent example is TD Cowen’s reiterated Buy rating with a $10.00 target, citing strong market performance and growth potential. Short headline updates also highlighted that Ardelyx produced an operating profit last quarter while maintaining product sales of $105.52 million, reinforcing the credibility of the earnings improvement underway. The majority view emphasizes continued revenue expansion into the current quarter, margin stabilization supported by prior-quarter gross margin at 80.02%, and an inflection in operating profitability consistent with the $7.07 million EBIT estimate and the $0.01 EPS forecast. The bullish camp argues that the company’s commercial trajectory and leverage to incremental volumes underpin near-term upside risk to consensus if execution remains consistent, while recognizing that the topline base is still building and quarterly variability is possible.