Abstract

BGC GROUP will report fourth-quarter results on February 12, 2026 Pre-Market; investors are watching revenue growth, margin trajectory, and EPS momentum into year-end.

Market Forecast

Consensus and company projections point to fourth-quarter revenue of $0.75 billion, with a forecast adjusted EPS of $0.29 and EBIT of $0.16 billion; the year-over-year revenue growth rate is estimated at 31.73% and adjusted EPS growth at 16.00%. Commentary around margins suggests continued high gross margins near historical levels and a focus on net profitability, though specific gross and net margin forecasts are not widely published.

BGC GROUP’s main business remains diversified across brokerage commissions, principal trading, and data/software/transaction services, with commissions contributing the largest share and expected to benefit from active market volumes. The most promising segment is data, software and trading, which continues to scale from a smaller base and is positioned for higher-margin growth.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, BGC GROUP delivered revenue of $0.74 billion, a gross profit margin of 91.14%, net profit attributable to shareholders of $27.88 million, a net profit margin of 3.97%, and adjusted EPS of $0.29, with revenue increasing 31.32% year over year and EPS up 11.54% year over year. Management highlighted resilient execution against a backdrop of elevated rates and solid market activity, while operating leverage supported EBIT of $0.15 billion and modest EPS expansion.

The business mix underscored the strength of commissions at $573.16 million and principal trading at $99.95 million, complemented by $34.35 million in data, software and trading revenue, which together supported diversified top-line momentum.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Global brokerage commissions

Brokerage commissions remain the core revenue engine, historically accounting for the majority of group revenue and demonstrating sensitivity to trading volumes across rates, credit, equities, and related markets. With the company projecting revenue of $0.75 billion and EPS of $0.29, the setup suggests that seasonal year-end activity and still-elevated rate volatility can sustain healthy ticket flow. The company’s pre-earnings revenue growth estimate of 31.73% year over year implies that core brokerage volumes and pricing remain favorable versus the prior year period, even as market participants assess the interest-rate path for 2026. Margin implications in commissions are twofold: while the segment supports throughput, compensation and technology costs can compress incremental margins if activity cools. The prior quarter’s gross margin of 91.14% reflects a high contribution from brokerage and related services, but the net margin of 3.97% shows that operating costs and non-operating items still matter for earnings conversion. For this quarter, investors will pay close attention to the balance between revenue growth and expense discipline, particularly compensation ratio trends and any seasonal accruals. Another focus is cross-selling and client wallet share within rates and credit products, which can help stabilize volumes if volatility moderates late in the quarter. A sustained pipeline of primary market issuance or secondary trading in credit could support commissions, while a lull in new issuance or compressed bid-ask spreads would weigh on take rates.

Most promising business: Data, software and trading

The data, software and trading segment has been expanding from a lower base, contributing $34.35 million last quarter and offering higher-margin characteristics relative to voice brokerage. Its scalable economics can provide earnings leverage as adoption increases, reinforcing the group’s long-term margin aspirations. In the context of the current quarter, improved monetization and deeper client integration can lift recurring revenue, which helps smooth cyclicality inherent in transaction-driven activities. If the fourth-quarter top-line reaches the projected $0.75 billion, even a modest incremental gain in data/software revenue can disproportionately enhance EBIT, given lower variable costs. This dynamic is reflected in the company’s forecast EBIT of $0.16 billion alongside EPS of $0.29, which suggests that management expects positive mix or efficiency benefits. Investors will also monitor product rollouts and customer retention, as these influence recurring revenue visibility and pricing power. Potential risks include elongated sales cycles at financial institutions, integration or migration delays for clients adopting new tools, and competitive pricing in data services. Successful execution would be visible in higher attach rates and improved gross-to-net conversion for this segment.

Stock price drivers: Revenue growth quality, expense discipline, and capital deployment

The stock’s near-term reaction is likely to hinge on the quality of revenue growth and profitability conversion. A revenue print in line with the $0.75 billion forecast coupled with EPS of $0.29 would validate the growth trajectory, especially if the company demonstrates stable compensation ratios and operating expense control. Conversely, any step-up in expenses that dilutes the net margin and holds EPS below the $0.29 mark could prompt a cautious response. On capital deployment, updates on dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments could influence sentiment. While gross margins remain structurally high, a repetition of last quarter’s net margin of 3.97% would leave room for improvement; commentary around cost efficiencies and technology leverage will be a focal point. The interplay between market volatility, interest-rate expectations, and client trading appetite will also shape revenue sustainability into early 2026.

Analyst Opinions

Analyst previews over the recent period skew constructive, with the majority expecting BGC GROUP to meet or slightly exceed its own revenue and EPS forecasts, anchored by continued activity in rates and credit plus ongoing scaling in data/software and trading. The balance of commentary emphasizes stable to improving operating leverage and EBIT delivery in the neighborhood of $0.16 billion, alongside EPS of $0.29, which aligns with management’s guidance framework. Several institutions highlight that diversified revenue streams and high gross margins provide cushioning if market volumes dip late in the quarter. Where skepticism exists, it centers on net margin variability and the sensitivity of brokerage revenues to day-to-day volatility. The prevailing view, however, remains that year-over-year revenue growth near 31.73% and low double-digit EPS growth provide adequate support for a constructive stance into the print, with upside potential should data/software growth outpace expectations and expense control hold firm.