美东时间上午10点34分——市场普遍预期美联储将在下周宣布加息25个基点,然而,这一举措的实际影响可能远不如想象中那般剧烈。LPL Financial经济学家杰弗里·罗奇在最新发布的报告中指出,当前经济活动中对利率变动敏感的部分正在持续缩小,这与2022年至2023年美联储加息周期中所观察到的情况如出一辙。
罗奇进一步阐释道,尽管货币政策趋紧,但需求的韧性依然不可小觑。人工智能领域的投资热潮方兴未艾,为经济增长注入了强劲动力;与此同时,富裕消费群体在旅行方面的支出热情不减,持续为消费市场提供支撑。这些因素交织在一起,使得整体经济在面对利率上行时表现得更为从容。
展望未来,罗奇预计未来几个季度名义经济增长率将保持在6%以上的水平,显示出对经济前景的相对乐观态度。
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