Abstract

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited will release its quarterly results after market close on Thursday, February 26, 2026.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, revenue is estimated at RMB 6.37 billion with year-over-year growth of 0.61%, adjusted EPS is projected at 2.99 with year-over-year growth of 1.41%, and EBIT is forecast at RMB 4.65 billion with year-over-year growth of 9.52%; margin guidance has not been disclosed in the forecast dataset. The cash market is expected to set the tone as trading activity normalizes from the unusually strong fourth quarter; derivatives remain positioned to cushion potential softness in cash turnover. Derivatives stood out as the most promising segment, contributing RMB 3.55 billion last quarter, and its resilience is expected to complement the modest group revenue growth of 0.61% year over year.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter (fiscal Q4 2025), Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited reported revenue of RMB 7.78 billion, a gross profit margin of 96.97%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 4.90 billion, a net profit margin of 63.40%, and adjusted EPS of 3.87 with year-over-year growth of 56.05%. Net profit rose 10.31% quarter on quarter, highlighting strong operating leverage into the year-end turnover surge. The main business portfolio was anchored by Cash Markets (RMB 6.69 billion; 48.08% of segment revenue), Derivatives (RMB 3.55 billion; 25.54%), Commodities (RMB 1.51 billion; 10.89%), Data and Connectivity (RMB 1.10 billion; 7.93%), and Corporate Projects (RMB 1.05 billion; 7.56%), with total group revenue up 44.73% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Cash Markets

Cash Markets (现金) generated RMB 6.69 billion last quarter, accounting for 48.08% of segment revenue, and remains the principal swing factor for quarterly earnings. The Q4 uplift reflected end-of-year trading intensity that pushed revenue and EPS growth above historical seasonal ranges; the current quarter’s forecast implies a reversion to a more moderate activity level. With revenue estimated at RMB 6.37 billion for Q1 and adjusted EPS at 2.99, the forecast suggests a normalization in turnover and fee income compared with Q4, when actual revenue reached RMB 7.78 billion and EPS was 3.87. In this context, the cash market’s contribution will likely be shaped by daily average turnover trends, listing-related fees, and the mix of trading participants across retail and institutional flows.

The quarter-on-quarter inflection in net profit—up 10.31% in Q4—demonstrated how fee-based revenues scale efficiently against a predominantly fixed-cost infrastructure. For Q1, with the forecast implying subdued growth at the group level (+0.61% year over year for revenue), cash markets need to sustain a stable turnover baseline to preserve margin quality. Gross margins at 96.97% and net margins at 63.40% last quarter provide headroom; however, any shortfall in volumes would transmit directly to fee lines, making cash markets the key determinant of whether the company matches or exceeds the conservative revenue estimate.

Issuance activity and secondary trading breadth remain focal variables for cash markets this quarter. While the previous quarter’s strength benefited EPS growth of 56.05% year over year, the current quarter’s EPS forecast (+1.41% year over year) implies a cautious stance on trading volume. The interplay between issuer activity, investor sentiment, and turnover will be pivotal to EPS outcomes, particularly as high-margin revenue streams in the cash segment have an outsized impact on consolidated profitability.

Derivatives

Derivatives contributed RMB 3.55 billion last quarter and held a 25.54% share of segment revenue, marking it as the most durable buffer against variability in cash turnover. The segment’s diversified product suite can absorb changes in cash market activity, supporting EBIT, which is forecast to grow 9.52% year over year to RMB 4.65 billion. This differential—EBIT outpacing revenue growth—suggests a mix shift favoring higher-margin derivatives alongside ongoing cost discipline.

The forecast pattern indicates that derivatives will be central to sustaining profitability if cash volumes revert toward seasonal norms. Because derivatives can generate fees from hedging and tactical positioning regardless of directionality in the underlying cash market, they are well placed to contribute stable fee income. Last quarter’s elevated margins at the group level reflect fixed-cost leverage; in Q1, incremental contribution from derivatives should help maintain margin resilience even with only 0.61% year-over-year revenue growth.

Operationally, product breadth across equity index, single-stock, and other contracts strengthens the ability to capture different types of market engagement. The segment’s potential to stabilize EPS around the forecast 2.99 hinges on steady open-interest and roll activity through the quarter. Derivatives’ consistent contribution thus presents a credible avenue to exceed the modest revenue estimate if trading intensity proves firmer than implied.

Data and Connectivity

Data and Connectivity delivered RMB 1.10 billion last quarter and accounted for 7.93% of segment revenue. As a subscription and service-based line, it provides recurring revenue that is less sensitive to short-term turnover changes. The segment’s role in this quarter is to underpin the earnings base while the transactional businesses fluctuate, contributing to stability in both top line and margin.

The current quarter’s guidance does not provide explicit margin targets, but last quarter’s 96.97% gross margin indicates strong scalability in data-driven services. While revenue growth at the group level is guided at 0.61% year over year, this business line tends to grow more predictably, helping to smooth earnings. Its contribution is relevant to the EPS forecast of 2.99, as incremental subscription growth can offset small variances in trading fees.

As part of the quarter’s earnings framework, Data and Connectivity helps maintain service continuity for participants and ensures monetization of platform usage beyond transactional fees. In a quarter characterized by normalized trading conditions, this segment offers earnings visibility that supports the group’s ability to meet or slightly exceed its conservative revenue estimate.

Commodities

The Commodities segment posted RMB 1.51 billion last quarter, 10.89% of segment revenue, and functions as a diversified revenue source alongside cash and derivatives. While the dataset does not provide the quarter’s separate commodity outlook, the segment’s role is to balance the revenue mix, especially when equity-related turnover varies. Commodities fees flow from contracts and clearing activities that can be active even when equity volumes pause, helping to stabilize the quarter’s aggregate revenue.

Given the group’s conservative revenue guide (+0.61% year over year), commodities represent a margin-supportive revenue stream if transactional breadth remains intact. The segment’s fee structure contributes to maintaining net margin quality, which was 63.40% last quarter, aligning with the quarter’s goal to keep EPS around the 2.99 forecast. Its continuity offers a useful supplement to derivatives in dampening earnings volatility during routine seasonality.

The segment’s contribution underscores the importance of revenue diversity this quarter. As cash turnover moderates relative to Q4’s levels, commodities help anchor the top line, supporting EBIT’s projected 9.52% year-over-year growth despite modest headline revenue growth.

Corporate Projects

Corporate Projects amounted to RMB 1.05 billion last quarter, representing 7.56% of segment revenue. While typically smaller than transactional lines, these project-related revenues can contribute meaningfully during quieter trading periods. The segment often draws from initiatives and services that extend beyond daily trading, adding flexibility to the quarterly revenue profile.

In the context of Q1’s guidance, Corporate Projects act as a complement to recurring and transactional businesses. Their presence in the revenue mix supports stability in both gross and net margin when trading fees normalize, which aligns with Q1’s modest forecast profile. Last quarter’s margin strength illustrates how additional project revenue can scale favorably across the group’s cost base.

This segment’s contribution this quarter should continue to be an incremental support to the earnings base. It helps maintain revenue consistency that the current guidance implies, aiding the group’s ability to deliver EBIT above the rate of headline revenue growth.

Key Factors Impacting the Stock Price This Quarter

The primary driver is the level of cash market turnover relative to the unusually strong Q4 base. With Q1 revenue forecast at RMB 6.37 billion, the implied moderation requires stable trading activity to meet guidance; any deviation—positive or negative—will directly affect fees and EPS around the projected 2.99. In particular, daily average turnover and issuance-related fees will be closely watched by investors.

A second factor is derivatives engagement, which supports EBIT growth of 9.52% year over year. If hedging and tactical trading demand remain steady, derivatives can offset weaker cash turnover, preserving margin quality and the EPS trajectory. This segment’s performance will likely be viewed as a leading indicator for whether the group can deliver upside relative to the conservative top-line guide.

A third factor is the persistence of high margins. Last quarter’s gross margin of 96.97% and net margin of 63.40% underscore strong operating leverage; sustaining margin in a normalized turnover environment is central to maintaining the EPS outlook. Because the cost base scales slowly relative to revenue movements, even small positive surprises in turnover can translate to meaningful EPS variance against the 2.99 forecast, making margin stability a draw for investor positioning in the stock ahead of results.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of recent commentary from January to February 2026 leans bullish, with constructive views dominating the period’s published analysis and no identifiable bearish calls within the timeframe. A valuation-focused note on February 11, 2026 characterized the company’s current valuation as reasonable and supported by steady profitability metrics, and projected continued earnings stability through 2026 based on fee-based revenue strength and disciplined cost structure. Additional commentaries in late January 2026 highlighted operational initiatives that enhance revenue resilience across transactional and service lines, reinforcing the view that quarterly earnings can meet or slightly exceed conservative forecasts.

The bullish majority draws attention to three core points that are relevant to this quarter’s release. First, the forecast’s modest revenue growth of 0.61% year over year is seen as achievable given the diversified revenue base across cash, derivatives, commodities, and data services. Second, derivatives’ ability to support EBIT growth of 9.52% year over year is viewed as a favorable indicator of margin durability even when cash market turnover normalizes, which aligns with the projected adjusted EPS of 2.99. Third, last quarter’s margin strength—96.97% gross margin and 63.40% net margin—provides a cushion that increases the probability of meeting the EPS projection despite the quarter’s conservative revenue guide.

Analysts also highlight how quarter-on-quarter dynamics inform expectations. The 10.31% quarter-on-quarter increase in net profit in Q4 underscored the sensitivity of earnings to turnover intensity; in Q1, the normalized activity level is incorporated into models that nevertheless maintain a bullish tilt due to derivatives stability and recurring data revenue. With last quarter’s revenue reaching RMB 7.78 billion and adjusted EPS at 3.87 (+56.05% year over year), the comparative base is high, so consensus is methodically anchored on revenue and EPS forecasts that do not rely on extraordinary activity. This framing supports the bullish positioning: even modest positive surprises in daily turnover or product mix could result in an EPS outcome above the 2.99 mark.

In sum, the prevailing institutional stance is bullish for the current quarter, grounded in conservative top-line guidance, margin resilience, and diversified revenue architecture. The majority view anticipates revenue near RMB 6.37 billion, adjusted EPS around 2.99, and EBIT approximately RMB 4.65 billion, with derivatives and recurring data services mitigating potential softness in cash markets. Given the company’s ability to leverage fixed cost structures to drive margin, the bullish camp expects that normalized trading conditions will still produce a stable earnings print, with upside potential if turnover surprises to the upside.