港股市场今日震荡，洛阳钼业（03993）盘中大跌5.05%，引发投资者关注。该公司股价下跌主要受到刚果（金）局势动荡的影响，可能对其在当地的矿业运营产生重大影响。
消息面上，刚果（金）局势近期出现新的变化。刚果（金）总统费利克斯·齐塞克迪表示，愿意与美国达成矿产换安全协议。同时，反政府武装"M23运动"已攻占刚果（金）东部北基伍省的重要矿业城镇瓦利卡莱。中信证券分析认为，刚果（金）东部地区局势仍面临较大不确定性，相关事件的影响可能持续。
值得注意的是，刚果（金）钴矿产量占全球总产量的76%左右，而洛阳钼业2024年的钴产量预计将占刚果（金）总产量的50%。虽然刚果（金）钴出口禁令可能导致钴价上涨，但市场担心公司可能无法从中受益。然而，民生证券指出，这种担忧可能存在误解。短期内，公司的业绩弹性主要来自钴的在途库存；长期来看，配额制落地后钴价中枢的抬升可能提高公司的远期利润。尽管如此，鉴于目前局势的不确定性，投资者对洛阳钼业的前景持谨慎态度，导致其股价承压。
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