The aviation and tanker sectors are poised for strong performance, according to a research report by Guotai Haitong Securities. The firm maintains an "overweight" rating on aviation and tanker stocks, citing potential for a "super cycle" in the aviation industry.

**Aviation Sector**: Passenger load factors have hit record highs while ticket prices remain relatively low. Market-driven pricing and constrained supply, coupled with recovering demand and optimized passenger demographics, are expected to drive profitability upward. October is projected to be a profitable month for the industry, with post-holiday business travel sustaining volume and price growth. The seasonal impact of route adjustments has been milder than in previous years.

In Q3 2025, despite weaker business travel demand during the summer season, major Chinese airlines reported resilient earnings, surpassing Q3 2019 levels for the third consecutive year. This signals an upward trend in profitability. Guotai Haitong anticipates a potential "super cycle" for Chinese aviation, supported by market-based pricing, steady demand growth, and structural improvements in passenger sources, which could lift airline earnings in 2026. The firm maintains "overweight" ratings on Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines.

**Tanker Sector**: Q4 2025 earnings for crude oil tankers are expected to reach a decade-high, potentially ushering in a "super bull market." Recent increases in crude production from the Middle East and South America, alongside U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, have redirected Indian imports toward the Middle East and the U.S. Gulf, benefiting compliant VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) and driving a surge in freight rates over the past two months.

Although temporary measures under Section 301 dampened market sentiment and led to a slight dip in VLCC-TCE rates (to around $100,000 per day on the Middle East-China route), the overall rate remains elevated. Guotai Haitong forecasts sustained growth in global crude demand, particularly due to longer shipping distances from South American production, while compliant fleet expansion is expected to lag behind projections. The firm maintains "overweight" ratings on COSCO SHIPPING Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and China Merchants Nanjing Tanker.

**Express Delivery Sector**: The industry's shift away from cutthroat competition has yielded clear results in Q3 2025, with leading players showing divergent profitability.

1) **Industry Overview**: Q3 parcel volume grew over 13% YoY, while average revenue per parcel declined 5.8% YoY but edged up 0.5% QoQ. 2) **E-commerce Delivery**: STO Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Holdings reported parcel volume growth of +10.7%, +15.1%, and +6.6% YoY, respectively. Average revenue per parcel improved sequentially, signaling reduced price competition. Nationwide price hikes in key regions (covering over 85% of the market) have bolstered profitability. A second round of price adjustments in October is expected to further enhance earnings. 3) **Integrated Logistics**: SF Holding’s Q3 revenue rose over 8% YoY, with parcel volume surging 33% YoY, outperforming the industry. However, net profit dipped 8.5% due to strategic investments. Sequential improvement in average revenue per parcel (+RMB 0.14) suggests stable Q4 earnings and full-year growth.

**Risks**: Economic fluctuations, tariffs, geopolitical tensions, oil price and currency volatility, and safety incidents.