During the Asian trading session on Monday, amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend that sent oil prices higher, the spot price of gold initially fell sharply to a low of $4,648.13 per ounce. However, the price subsequently staged a sustained rebound during European and U.S. trading hours, approaching $4,750 per ounce. In Tuesday's Asian session, spot gold extended its overnight recovery momentum, trading around $4,720 per ounce and reaching a high of $4,773.39 per ounce, demonstrating strong resilience against declines and support from dip-buying. Notably, the narrative behind this gold rally extends far beyond simple "safe-haven buying." Against a backdrop of persistent global market volatility, gold finds itself at a critical juncture shaped by the interplay of geopolitical risks, energy-driven inflation transmission, and macroeconomic data. Beneath a seemingly calm price surface, three powerful forces are colliding intensely: the "mini-war" scenario as a U.S.-Iran ceasefire teeters on the brink of collapse, a hawkish pivot by major Wall Street banks pushing back interest rate cut expectations, and the divergent gold allocation strategies between global central banks and speculative capital.

**Fundamental Analysis of Gold's Trajectory**

**Geopolitical Layer: Ceasefire "Exists in Name Only," Strait of Hormuz Remains a Powder Keg** The U.S.-Iran situation remains the most significant fundamental support for the gold market, but this support is becoming increasingly complex. From "life support" to "unacceptable"—the ceasefire agreement exists in name only. On the 11th, U.S. President Trump stated at the White House that the current ceasefire with Iran remains in effect but is "extremely fragile" and on "life support." Previously, Trump had publicly stated on social media that Iran's response to the U.S. peace proposal was "completely unacceptable," even remarking, "I didn't even finish reading it—I thought, should I waste my time reading this thing?" Iran's hardline stance is equally significant. According to Iranian media, Iran's counter-proposal focuses on ending the war and ensuring maritime security in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, demanding U.S. war reparations and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait. Iran also emphasized the need to lift sanctions and unfreeze its assets. Iran's Supreme Leader has issued "new guidelines to the armed forces to conduct operations and confront the enemy firmly." From "ceasefire" to "mini-war"—the brutal nature of the standoff. On May 8th, the U.S. and Iran clashed again in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump characterized the strike as "just a little warning" while attempting to downplay tensions, claiming the ceasefire remained valid. Notably, he described the ongoing friction during the ceasefire as a "mini-war" in an interview—a term that inadvertently reveals the true nature of the current situation: the so-called ceasefire is merely a lower-intensity form of conflict.

**Macroeconomic Consequences: Distorting Global Energy Supply Patterns** The Strait of Hormuz, which once handled about one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, has seen its traffic plummet to extremely low levels. The conflict, now over ten weeks old, has effectively closed the Strait. Consequently, international oil prices have surged significantly—Brent crude rose nearly 3% to around $104 per barrel, while WTI crude approached the $100 per barrel psychological mark.

**Inflation Narrative: Key Data This Week, Wall Street Universally Delays Rate Cut Expectations** While the Middle East situation determines the "floor" for gold's resilience, U.S. inflation data will ultimately dictate its upside potential. The U.S. April CPI data is set for release, with potential for a secondary energy shock to exceed expectations. The April CPI and PPI data, to be released on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, carry far greater importance than typical inflation reports—they will provide the first comprehensive test of how energy cost increases from the Iran conflict are transmitting to overall inflation. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the April CPI to rise 0.6% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase potentially as high as 3.7%-3.8%. The core CPI year-over-year is expected at 2.7%. Matt Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley, warned that the April CPI data could present a "more explosive" picture. Beyond the oil price transmission effect, a one-time jump in rent inflation is possible due to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' adjustments to correct distortions from last October's government shutdown, adding pressure beyond energy factors.

**Major Banks Universally Delay Rate Cut Path, Market Sees Risk of 2027 Hike** More importantly, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path are undergoing a structural shift. On May 12th, U.S. Treasury prices fell sharply across the board. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 7.11 basis points to 3.951%, while the 10-year yield rose 6.03 basis points to 4.412%. Following the strong April non-farm payrolls data (significantly exceeding expectations at 115,000), Goldman Sachs' team led by Jan Hatzius pushed back their expectation for the next rate cut from September 2026 to December 2026. Bank of America has taken an even more distant view: its Head of U.S. Economic Research, Aditya Bhave, stated in an May 8th report that "the data simply does not support a Fed rate cut this year," maintaining the expectation that the Fed will not cut rates again until July 2027. A more aggressive signal is that traders are even beginning to price in the possibility of a rate hike in early 2027. This marks a stark reversal from the widely anticipated "rate-cutting cycle" at the start of the year. Policy expectations have shifted from "preemptive easing" to "data-dependent watchfulness and cautious adjustment." The Fed currently finds itself in a dilemma: needing to assess the inflationary impact of the oil price shock while also watching for any further softening in the labor market.

Beyond the U.S.-Iran situation and U.S. data, leaders from the U.S. and China are scheduled to meet in Beijing on the 14th and 15th. Trade, technology, and the Taiwan issue are among the key focus topics anticipated by external observers. Trade is expected to remain a central topic of discussion.

**Outlook for Gold** The gold market is currently in a typical phase of "coexisting risks and opportunities." The convergence of three forces will determine gold's future path:

1. **Geopolitical Risk Provides a "Resilience Floor."** The protracted nature of the U.S.-Iran conflict and the uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz provide solid safe-haven support for gold. However, the market no longer seems to react as sharply to every headline as it did in the initial stages of the conflict—indicating that gold's sensitivity to geopolitical risk has marginally dulled.

2. **Hawkish Expectations Cap the Upside.** The continuous delay of rate cut expectations means the high-interest-rate environment is set to last longer than the market initially foresaw. While high rates themselves weigh on gold, surging oil prices and the resulting inflation expectations reinforce gold's anti-inflation narrative. These two forces create a complex equilibrium. A true breakout for gold will depend on whether inflation data proves "hot" enough to fully outweigh the Fed's hawkish stance, prompting the market to reprice "hard landing" risks.

3. **Global Demand Diverges but Central Bank Support Remains Solid.** Indian Prime Minister Modi's appeal for citizens to pause gold purchases to protect foreign reserves has created short-term pressure on physical demand. However, persistent gold buying by global central banks and institutional investor price targets of $6,000 or higher constitute structural bullish factors for the medium to long term. Analysts at ING note that while stalled peace talks increase short-term uncertainty, they maintain an optimistic year-end target of $5,000 per ounce for gold. Goldman Sachs forecasts a year-end price of $5,400/oz, UBS predicts $5,900/oz, and Bank of America maintains a 12-month target of $6,000/oz.

Over the next few trading sessions, a series of key events will act as密集 catalysts: whether Tuesday's April CPI data exceeds expectations, whether Wednesday's PPI data reflects oil price transmission effects, and developments from Trump's visit to Beijing. Investors must closely monitor these key variables—gunfire in the Strait of Hormuz has never truly ceased, and each ceasefire breakdown or actual clash could inadvertently shatter the current delicate balance in gold prices. Within the broader narrative of rising global uncertainties and persistently high inflation risks, gold's traditional safe-haven attributes and anti-inflation value remain worthy of ongoing attention.