Soochow Securities has released a research report maintaining a "Buy" rating on GUOQUAN (02517), noting a strong start to the New Year and a continuation of positive same-store trends. In the second half of 2025, the company's same-store revenue maintained robust growth despite a high base, and the 2026 New Year period further extended this impressive growth momentum. This further validates the company's ability to consistently achieve single-store revenue growth through product updates, refined membership management, and store renovations. Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is forecasted to be 450/600/760 million yuan (previous forecast: 440/560/680 million yuan), representing year-on-year increases of +94%/+34%/+27%; this corresponds to a PE ratio of 24/18/14x. The main views of Soochow Securities are as follows:
The company is continuously broadening its store formats, highlighting its capability for scenario-based operations. By 2025, the company had already begun experimenting with renovating larger stores, aiming to achieve "triple the performance with double the area" by expanding product categories, usage scenarios, average customer spending, and foot traffic. Research on renovated stores in Shanghai revealed that introducing high-frequency categories like fried foods and beverages can drive sales of relatively low-frequency hot pot ingredients. The rollout of large-store renovations is now poised to begin in Southern China. This franchising management capability, characterized by deep involvement from management and an extremely flexible supply chain, represents an underestimated "capability boundary" by the market.
The launch of the new "GUOQUAN Small Stir-fry" format has the potential to open up new growth space. The trial operation of the small stir-fry stores marks the company's entry into a new scenario. Utilizing a combination of a standardized supply chain and intelligent cooking robots enables meal preparation in 1 minute and completion of a dish within 2-3 minutes, with product pricing offering advantages over traditional takeout. If successfully implemented, this model could capture demand from the takeout market. This is viewed as a significant extension of GUOQUAN's "Community Central Kitchen" strategy, enriching consumption scenarios for daily family meals and serving as a key driver for the company to explore a second growth curve.
Risk warnings include potential food safety issues, intensifying industry competition, and consumer spending recovery falling short of expectations.