Goldman Sachs has reiterated a "Buy" rating on CICC's H-shares, setting a 12-month target price of HK$28.15 based on a projected 2027 price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times. The brokerage noted that CICC's preliminary first-quarter results for this year were robust, with guidance indicating net profit attributable to shareholders for the first quarter of 2026 will range between RMB 3.4 billion and RMB 3.9 billion. This represents a year-on-year increase of 65% to 90%, significantly surpassing Goldman Sachs' expectations of 27% to 46%.

However, the report suggests that while industry data is largely reflected in market expectations, CICC's outperformance is more likely attributable to the strength of its Hong Kong operations. Hong Kong contributes approximately 30% of the group's revenue, and the region's IPO market has shown sustained strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 489%. Given that the merger and integration process for CICC is still ongoing, the firm believes that the strong profit performance should help boost the share price. This would narrow the discount to the cash option exercise price and reduce the probability of the cash option being exercised.

Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs recommends focusing on several key areas. The first is the anticipated second board meeting expected in April, which is seen as likely to substantially alleviate market concerns regarding uncertainties related to the merger transaction itself, thereby aiding valuation. The second area of focus is the detailed breakdown of the first-quarter 2026 performance, particularly the growth trajectory of CICC's highly competitive Hong Kong operations and its wealth management business.